Weather Forecasting Based on Data-Driven and Physics Informed Reservoir Computing Models

In response to the growing demand for the global energy supply chain, wind power has become an important research subject among studies in the advancement of renewable energy sources. The major concern is the stochastic volatility of weather conditions that hinder the development of wind power forecasting approaches. To address this issue, the current study proposes a weather prediction method divided into two models for wind speed and atmospheric system forecasting. First, the data-based model incorporated with wavelet transform and recurrent neural networks is employed to predict the wind speed. Second, the physics-informed echo state network was used to learn the chaotic behaviour of the atmospheric system. The findings were validated with a case study conducted on wind speed data from Turkmenistan. The results suggest the out-performance of physics-informed model for accurate and reliable forecasting analysis, which indicates the potential for implementation in wind energy analysis.

The ERATOSTHENES Remote Sensing Supersite: Understanding the atmospheric system in the EMMENA region

<p>The Mediterranean Basin is well recognized by IPCC as a hot spot for climate change. Severe consequences are expected for the future in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa (EMMENA) region.</p><p>The increased urbanization, high pollution, dust storms and decreasing precipitation in the region dramatically affect climate change. Current prediction models for weather, climate, and environment are based on sophisticated modeling in close connection with state-of-the-art observations.</p><p>A modern observational super-site in Cyprus is of fundamental importance to understanding the atmospheric system in the EMMENA region. The presence of such a super site will be able to effectively monitor atmospheric conditions and provide relevant data for atmospheric prediction modeling.</p><p>This contribution reports on the recent progress regarding the buildup of a permanent, state-of-the-art atmospheric remote sensing station in Limassol, Cyprus. Through the EU H2020 Teaming project EXCELSIOR, the ERATOSTHENES Centre of Excellence (ECoE) will be established as a Centre of Excellence for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment.</p><p>The ECoE modern in-situ observational super site will be established in Cyprus for long-term profiling of the atmosphere, including wind, humidity, aerosol and cloud properties and precipitation fields. The ECoE will be fully in line with ESFRI networks, such as ACTRIS, as it will utilize state-of-the-art infrastructure and techniques to provide cutting-edge data regarding atmospheric processes.</p><p>As a demonstration initiative, an 18-month field campaign (Cy-CARE (Cyprus Cloud Aerosol and pRecipitation Experiment)) has been designed by the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) and was implemented by the ERATOSTHENES group at Cyprus University of Technology (CUT) between October 2016 and March 2018, with the main focus on lidar/radar-based studies of aerosol-cloud-precipitation relationships. Case studies of the Cy-CARE campaign will be presented to demonstrate the importance of the ground based atmospheric remote sensing observations in the region.</p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>The authors acknowledge the EXCELSIOR project that received funding from the European Union [H2020-WIDESPREAD-04-2017:Teaming Phase2] project under grant agreement no. 857510, and from the Republic of Cyprus. CUT team acknowledge ACTRIS-2 project (H2020-INFRAIA-2014-2015, GA no. 654109) and the Research and Innovation Foundation of Cyprus for the financial support through the SIROCCO (EXCELLENCE/1216/0217) and AQ-SERVE (INTERGRATED/0916/0016) projects.</p>

Timing and pacing of middle to late Miocene intensification of the Indian Ocean-Atmospheric circulation system

<p>A recent biostratigraphic re-evaluation of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 722 (Bialik et al., accepted, Paleoceanogr. and Paleocl.) provides new insights into the history of monsoon driven upwelling in the Arabian Sea between 15 and 8.5 Ma. They suggest the modern monsoon was only established after tectonic preconditioning, linked to the uplift of the Himalayas, closure of the Tethyan Seaway, and the inception of Indonesian Throughflow restriction. But the requisite topography for the Indian monsoon was already in place by at least the late early Miocene which suggests another driver. However, as northern hemisphere latitudinal heat gradients continued to be shallower than modern throughout the Miocene, steepening southern hemisphere gradients during the middle Miocene glaciation of Antarctica ~14.8 Ma (Pound et al., 2012, Earth-Sci. Rev., 112) may have played an important role in pacing the monsoon system during the middle to late Miocene.</p><p>Here we further explore these findings by using recently acquired X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning data from two additional ODP sites located in the central (Site 707) and southern (Site 752) Indian Ocean. We trace the timing and pacing of these environmental changes along a cross hemispheric transect within key areas of the larger Indian Ocean-Atmospheric system: (1) the monsoonal upwelling regions along the Oman Margin (Site 722); (2) the Somali/Findlater jets (Site 707); and (3) the high-pressure zone in the southern horse latitudes (Site 752).</p><p>Using updated age constraints at all sites, we show that the intensification of upwelling at Site 722 is tightly linked to climatic and oceanographic changes in the southern high latitudes (e.g., Groeneveld et al., 2017; Sci. Adv.). This close co-evolution of southern hemisphere climatic shifts and monsoon dynamics hints at a strong contribution of increasing southern hemisphere thermal gradients on the middle to late Miocene evolution of the Indian Ocean circulation system and Indian monsoon dynamics. Our findings thus re-emphasize the Indian summer monsoon as the result of a complex cross-hemispheric ocean-atmospheric system spanning the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Gadgil, 2018, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 127). We postulate that the Indian Ocean-Atmospheric system experienced a gradual intensification that began after the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum with Antarctic Ice Sheet expansion. These changes then culminated in a synchronous shift ~11 Ma during the Ser4/Tor1 sea level lowstand (Haq et al., 1987; Science, 235). Future chrono-, chemo- and cyclostratigraphic work at ODP Sites 707 and 752 will further help to constrain the timing of these events, and fully place them in the context of the global climatic evolution during the Miocene.</p>