Demographic future of Russia in the UN forecasts: "scientific foresight" and reality

The article provides a brief history of the emergence of demographic forecasts, shows their use by the United Nations, the range of countries for which forecasts were made and are being drawn up, considers demographic forecasts that were carried out during the Soviet era and provides a detailed analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia. In contrast to the forecasts of the population of the Soviet Union as a whole, for Russia they initially began to focus on the downward dynamics. It is concluded that over two decades (1996-2015) in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos (excluding the former republics of Yugoslavia), the population as a whole has decreased to 95.5%, while in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos — it increased to 123.8%. The forecasts given in the article are compared with the actual size of the population that has already taken place. Everywhere in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, the actual population is higher than the predicted, and in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos, on the contrary. Comparing the forecasts with the actual population dynamics, the conclusion is substantiated about a noticeable change in the ratio between the two groups of countries united by ethnicity, a decrease in the demographic potential of the Slavic group and its increase in the group with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos. In the final part of the work, it is said that the presented rates of change in the population size in 35 years and then in another 50 years, arising from the UN demographic forecasts for 2050 and 2100, as well as the demographic dynamics in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first 15 years of the new century, indicate that if Russia, like other Slavic countries do not make radical efforts and, accordingly, do not consistently take effective measures to change the demographic trends, then the same thing can happen to Russia as has happened in different centuries to many countries such as Assyria, the Hunnic Empire, etc. The current geopolitical situation in which Russia is, its status as a great power, the country's largest territory in the world, favorable geographical position and colossal natural resources, dictate the need to increase its economic, defense and, naturally, demographic potential.

Dynamics of labor migration in the Republic of Bashkortostan

The article considers some indicators of the widespread social phenomenon in Russia - labor migration, which, according to the data for 2019, involves about 2.9 million Russians, or 4% of the employed population. These are internal labor migrants who temporarily work outside their regions. This type of labor migration of Russians has common features with temporary employment in the United States, Canada, and Australia (long distance commuting - LDC), fly-in/fly-out - FIFO). The empirical basis of the article consists of the statistical data (results of the labor force survey by the Federal State Statistics Service for 2011-2019) and the results of sociological research conducted in the region with a high level of shift employment - the Republic of Bashkortostan - in 2015-2019. The statistical data prove regional differences in the Russian shift employment: the majority (72%) of internal labor migrants live in a third of the regions with high and medium levels of temporary labor migration; in some regions, the level of temporary labor migration decreases. The sociological data show different involvement in shift employment depending on place of residence, gender and age, marital status and level of education. The same social-territorial and social-demographic features are evident at the national level. At the federal level, internal labor migration, as a tool for social-economic development, helps to solve the problem of labor shortage in certain areas and sectors of economy; therefore, such labor migration is supported by legal acts. At the regional level, it decreases the labor and demographic potential of the regions that provide labor migrants. To preserve the economic and demographic potential and to strengthen the competitiveness of such regions, we need to develop regional labor markets and labor mobility within regions.

Assessment and mapping of demographic potential of urbanized territories of the Baikal-Mongol region

This article provides an assessment of the demographic potential of the Baikal-Mongolian region, which unites the adjacent territories of the two countries. The cores of the research site are the urbanized territories of Irkutsk, Ulan-Ude and Ulan-Bator, and communications are railways and highways connecting the main centres. The demographic potential is characterized by the level and possibilities for the development of demographic processes and population structures, and mainly numerous quantitative characteristics of the population of the territory are used. The authors limited themselves to using quantitative characteristics of the demographic potential according to statistical data for 2019–2020 within the territories of the municipal districts and urban districts of the Irkutsk region, the Republic of Buryatia and aimags of Mongolia. Data on density and proportion of urban population reflect the size of the main urban areas. Data on demographic processes reflect the characteristics of the natural and migration movement of the population. Demographic structures are represented by the age structure and the demographic load of the working-age population, which is minimal throughout Mongolia and in the suburbs of Russian regional centres. Generalizing characteristics of demographic potential calculated from the average sum of individual indicators.

The Iron Gates Mesolithic in a Regional Context

The specific character of the Iron Gates Mesolithic material culture derives from the geomorphological and ecological features of the Iron Gates gorge in the Early Holocene. However, the Mesolithic of this geographic area can be entirely linked to the general flows of Mesolithic development in Europe as well as to the phenomena observed in the Adriatic-Ionian and Aegean zones. This demonstrates that the cultural, technological and economic changes which occurred during the Early Holocene were influenced by the same or similar factors as the entire area of the Balkan Peninsula. The absence of Mesolithic settlements outside the Iron Gates raises the question of whether the interior parts of the Central Balkans were inhabited during the Early Holocene. As hinted by the research in the Iron Gates and the Adriatic hinterland, Mesolithic settlements were probably located outside the denser forested areas (in the littoral and high-altitude zones) but this remains to be confirmed. Based on the assessment of the demographic potential of Mesolithic and Neolithic communities, four scenarios of Neolithisation of different parts of the Balkan Peninsula have been proposed.

Assessment of the demographic potential of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation in the context of innovative development

The article assesses the demographic potential of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation, taking into account the stages of its innovative development. The relevance of the study is due to the need for the formation of an innovative economy, which will help reduce its resource dependence and increase diversification, as well as improve the quality of life of the population. Recently, there has been a “devastation” of the country’s Arctic territories, which jeopardizes their integrated development, including the introduction of an innovative vector into it. In this regard, a comprehensive assessment of the existing demographic potential on the territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in conjunction with the assessment of the innovative development of the economy in the area is required. The suggested assessment methodology includes a system of indicators characterizing the natural and mechanical movement of the population, gender and age structure and health of the population, marriage rate, divorce rate and the level of its education, as well as reflecting the creation, implementation and use of innovations. The authors propose to carry out the assessment using scoring methods, natural groups, statistical analysis, interregional comparison, and expert assessments. The final stage of the assessment is the calculation of integral indices for assessing the demographic potential and innovative development of the country’s Arctic territories, presented graphically. Based on the assessment results, the authors divide all subjects into nine clusters. The old-developed regions of the European part of the Russian Arctic during the second stage of the country’s innovative development “lost ground” in most indicators of demographic potential assessment, despite the relatively high estimates of the innovation sphere. The leading positions according to the results of the demographic potential assessment in the context of innovative development belong to the Arctic regions of new development. However, in terms of the development of innovations they are among the outsiders. Thus, the authors outline a weak connection between the demographic and innovative development of the territories of the country’s Arctic zone, or predict a “delayed” effect from the introduction of innovations over time. The authors suggest applying the assessment results in the adjustment and designing of program and strategic documents of state policy in the field of demographic and innovative development of the Arctic territories of Russia.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF INVESTMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSED REGIONS

Social and economic spheres of depressed regions develop unfavorably which, in its turn, leads to the negative pace of the national economy development. “Depressed regions” have a higher growth rate of investments in fixed capital per capita than Russian indicators, but the growth of investment does not cause unambiguous changes in the demographic indicators of development. All “depressed regions” are currently characterized by depopulation and a negative balance of interregional migration. Thus, despite the growth of investment, “depressed regions” are characterized by a reduction in labor and demographic potential. The problem of analyzing the relationship between investment and demographic factors in the development of “depressed regions” is not fully studied today, which undoubtedly affects the quality and effectiveness of decisions made by state authorities to overcome the depressive nature of their economies.