Using data from collective hunts to estimate the wild boar (Sus scrofa) population density in north-eastern Poland

The spread of the African swine fever through wild boar population has caused major losses in the pig industry. Therefore, to decrease the population density of wild boar in Poland, the culling of these animals has been dramatically increased. However, the effect of depopulation is unknown because there are no methods that could be used throughout the country to estimate the number of wild boar. Thus, during two hunting seasons an attempt was made to estimate the number of wild boar using data from collective hunts. The forested area of 21 hunting districts (351.5 km2) was divided into five sampling inventory blocks (SIBs), which were used for the statistical analysis of the population density, the harvest rate and results of collective hunts. The average population density obtained by a driving census amounted to 8.19 ± 1.12 and 10.09 ± 1.06 (x̅ ± SE), animals/km2, which indicates that 2879 and 3547 wild boar were living in the study area in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 seasons respectively. The number of wild boars bagged per one hunting plot was adopted as the harvest success index (HBI). In SIBs the HBI value fluctuated in the range of 0.55 to 1.87 individuals/hunting plot and the population density ranged from 6.46 to 12.18 wild boars/km2. The non-linear regression showed a positive relationship between the HBI index and the population density. The discussion covers the possibility of using collective hunts to estimate the number of wild boar in Poland and in the European Union.

Predicting the Initiation Area of a Debris Flow Using Geomorphological Characteristics and a Physically-Based Model

A debris flow is a phenomenon in which sediment matter and water become mixed and flow down to a deposition area, thereby causing significant damage to people and property. In Korea, majority of the past debris flows initiated in the form of shallow landslides during rainfall. To address the hazards associated with debris flows, it is necessary to establish a method for predicting the location of the debris flow initiation. In this study, we propose a method for predicting the source of a debris flow by incorporating geomorphological characteristics and designing a physically-based model. The geomorphological characteristics associated with the initiation area of the debris flow were determined by analyzing previous literature. The physically-based model was developed by incorporating landslide inventory data, rainfall data, and geotechnical characteristics, and the map of safety factor less than 1.2 was thereby established. Furthermore, the region prone to the occurrence of debris flows was identified by the superposition of each unstable pixel obtained from the geomorphological characteristics and the physically-based model. The proposed method was validated through quantitative index analysis. The obtained results indicate that compared to other methods, the proposed method has a high success index and a low error index for predicting the source of a debris flow.

PSX-24 Seminal characteristics or Dorper rams with different social hierarchies in northern Mexico

The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible difference in seminal characteristics of Dorper rams of either high, medium or low social ranks in northern Mexico (26º N). The male’s social status was quantified through a competitive behavioral test in a herd of 36 adult males, the aggressive interactions and their consequences were registered to calculate the success index (SI), where low hierarchy (LH) rams had a SI of 0 to 0.33, medium hierarchy (MH) rams had a SI of 0.34 to 0.66 and high hierarchy (HH) had a SI of 0.67 to 1. Afterwards, the rams were subjected to an estrogenized female (2 mg of estradiol cypionate) for teasing in order to collect a semen sample with an artificial vagina. The semen was evaluated for volume, motility and concentration. The seminal characteristics differences were analyzed using a one-way ANOVA tests and stablishing a p-value of 0.10 as significance level in the SPSS statistical package. Results are shown in table 1. In conclusion, low hierarchy Dorper rams show a statistical tendency to have a lower sperm concentration.

312 - Level of engagement during an innovative therapy program in people with dementia – implementing Serious Traditional Multidimensional Games

Background:There is a significant difficulty in the engagement of people with dementia in therapeutic activities. Considering that stimulus attributes (e.g., content of a specific activity) seem to be determinant to achieve an expected engagement, innovative approaches are required.Aim:characterise the engagement of people with dementia in serious traditional multidimensional games (sTMG), comparing with conventional therapy (CT) sessions.Methods:Subjects with dementia were recruited in Alzheimer’s Portugal Foundation. Sociodemographic and clinical participants’ characteristics were collected, including classification of dementia severity using Mini-mental State Examination (MSE) and walking independence classification (dependent - someone needs supervision or human support to walk). Gerontologist, psychologist, occupational therapist and physiotherapist were invited to classify patients’ engagement in routine CT (i.e., cognitive therapy and exercise classes), according to 0 -10 scale (10 – successful engagement). Serious adaptations in TMG were implemented in 3 consecutive sessions (1 per week/ 45 min./session) and patient s engagement was rated in each session. Success index (number of subjects showing higher engagement in TMG/total participants) was calculated.Results:Thirteen participants (5 males; 79.23±8.39yrs; 15.76±9.22 MSE; 9 walk independently) were enrolled. Success index was 38%; comparing TMG with cognitive therapy and 31%, comparing to movement classes. Two patients with severe dementia and walking independency were more engaged in sTMG sessions (sTMG - 4;4; Cognitive therapy - 2;1; Exercises Classes). Four patients with moderate dementia and walking independency obtained worse engagement (sTMG –3;6;2;7; Cognitive therapy – 6;7;8;8 Exercises Classes – 4;6;7;9).Discussion:Our results showed that sTMG sessions had a positive impact in people with dementia, specifically in advanced/severe cases. In this respect, a previous study of Natalie et al., (2017) concluded that engagement was lower in cognitive activities for people with severe dementia, which can explain the higher engagement in sTMG sessions. Furthermore, Bier et al. (2008) enlightened that people with dementia in a moderate stage are characterised by emergent behavioural changes, which might difficult patients’ integration in new activities.Conclusion:sTMG had a positive impact in the engagement of people with dementia. Specifically, for patients at middle stage of dementia, future studies include longer sTMG protocols, possibly providing better patients’ integration.

Level of Entrepreneurial Success Among Women in the Agribusiness

Entrepreneurship has been identified as an important component of economic growth. Very high poverty rate and lack of job opportunity cleared the way for many unemployed young people, which include women, to enter small business units. In this study, the Business Success Index (ESI) was created to assess the success rate of women in agribusiness and the informants were categorized into four classes of very higher success, moderate success, average success and lower success.

Modifikasi Metode Waldvogel Berdasarkan Identifikasi Karakteristik Hujan Es Yang Dikelompokkan Berdasarkan Jarak Cakupan Radar Cuaca Pada Radar Cuaca Jakarta Tahun 2010-2019

<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>Hail detection using information from satellite and weather radar is the right choice due to spatial and temporal variability of the phenomenon of high hail. Some algorithms that use single polarization radar data have been developed for hail detection. One method that has been applied in Reflectivity-based Hail Warning or ZHAIL radar product is the Waldvogel method. This research aims to find new threshold criteria for the application of the Waldvogel method in the Jakarta weather radar observation area which is grouped into three regions based on the distance of weather radar observation. In this research, hail events from 2010 to 2019 have been analysed. Analysis of weather and weather radar data was carried out to determine the climatological characteristics of reflectivity values, reflectivit heights, and freezing levels as parameters to be used to determine the criteria for modification in the Waldvogel method. The reflectifity and reflectivity values are obtained from the processing of radar data, while the freezing level is generated from the processing of the Himawari satellite image in the infrared channel. Waldvogel's algorithm with the three modifications that have been produced, then tested using Critical Success Index, Possibility of Detection, and False Alram Ratio, calculations on the percentage value of Probability Of Hail. The results of the research is the reflectivity values, reflectivity altitude and the most accurate freezing level applied to each region that was differentiated according to the weather radar distance radius observation. Better accuracy of the application of Waldvogel method is expected to reduce therougheffects ofthehail phenomenon.</p><p><strong>Abstrak: </strong>Metode Waldvogel merupakan metode deteksi hujan es yang mengubah reflectivity dari pengamatan radar menjadi produk Reflectivity-based Hail Warning atau ZHAIL. Penggunaan metode Waldvogel masih perlu disesuaikan dengan kondisi wilayah tropis termasuk Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menemukan kriteria ambang batas baru untuk penerapan metode Waldvogel di daerah pengamatan radar cuaca Jakarta sehingga diperoleh akurasi metode Waldvogel yang lebih baik. Kriteria ambang dikelompokkan menjadi tiga wilayah berdasarkan jarak cakupan radar cuaca (wilayah I : &lt;30 km, wilayah II : 30-100 km dan wilayah III : 100-150 km). Analisis data radar cuaca dilakukan untuk menentukan karakteristik klimatologis dari nilai reflectivity maksimum, ketinggian reflectivity maksimum, dan ketinggian freezing level sebagai parameter yang akan digunakan untuk menentukan kriteria modifikasi dalam metode Waldvogel. Verfikasi parameter diujikan dengan nilai Probability of Hail (POH), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Possibility of Detection (POD), dan Critical Success Index (CSI). Hasil verifikasi menunjukan metode Waldvogel modiifikasi menghasilkan performa yang lebih baik dibandingkan metode Waldvogel awal untuk wilayah I dan II dengan kriteria metode Waldvogel modifikasi yang paling baik yaitu Waldvogel 3. Sedangkan untuk wilayah III, nilai kriteria yang lebih baik adalah Waldvogel tanpa modifikasi. Akurasi yang lebih baik dari penerapan metode Waldvogel diharapkan dapat mengurangi dampak buruk yang ditimbulkan dari fenomena hujan es</p>

Initial Development and Testing of a Convection-Allowing Model Scorecard

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both forecasters and researchers. Through such evaluation, forecasters can understand the strengths and weaknesses of NWP guidance, and researchers can work to improve NWP models. However, evaluating high-resolution convection-allowing models (CAMs) requires unique verification metrics tailored to high-resolution output, particularly when considering extreme events. Metrics used and fields evaluated often differ between verification studies, hindering the effort to broadly compare CAMs. The purpose of this article is to summarize the development and initial testing of a CAM-based scorecard, which is intended for broad use across research and operational communities and is similar to scorecards currently available within the enhanced Model Evaluation Tools package (METplus) for evaluating coarser models. Scorecards visualize many verification metrics and attributes simultaneously, providing a broad overview of model performance. A preliminary CAM scorecard was developed and tested during the 2018 Spring Forecasting Experiment using METplus, focused on metrics and attributes relevant to severe convective forecasting. The scorecard compared attributes specific to convection-allowing scales such as reflectivity and surrogate severe fields, using metrics like the critical success index (CSI) and fractions skill score (FSS). While this preliminary scorecard focuses on attributes relevant to severe convective storms, the scorecard framework allows for the inclusion of further metrics relevant to other applications. Development of a CAM scorecard allows for evidence-based decision-making regarding future operational CAM systems as the National Weather Service transitions to a Unified Forecast system as part of the Next-Generation Global Prediction System initiative.