EXPORT SUPPORT SYSTEM IN GERMANY: SET UP APPROACH

Support for export activities has been the focus of the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany for many years. Since the launch of the «three pillars system» in 1971, considerable experience has been accumulated in testing and implementing export support mechanisms. An important feature of the German export support system is the significant role, in addition to state institutions, of «intermediary organizations» – such as the AHK, GTAI, GIZ and others. In many ways, the success of German exports is due to the effective interaction of government agencies, private business and advisory / public associations. Germany’s systematic approach to implementing the policy of supporting export-oriented SMEs in priority export industry areas deserves special attention. The purpose of the article is to identify the strengths of the German export support system. The study of the accumulated foreign experience may be of interest for the further development of domestic exports, including in the context of the ongoing reform of the relevant institutions for supporting and facilitating export activities.

A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Optimality of German Export and Import Growth Forecasts Under Flexible Loss

This study contributes to research on the nonparametric evaluation of German trade forecasts. To this end, I compute random classification and regression forests to analyze the optimality of annual German export and import growth forecasts from 1970 to 2017. A forecast is considered as optimal if a set of predictors, which models the information set of a forecaster at the time of forecast formation, has no explanatory power for the corresponding (sign of the) forecast error. I analyze trade forecasts of four major German economic research institutes, a collaboration of German economic research institutes, and one international forecaster. For trade forecasts with a horizon of half-a-year, I cannot reject forecast optimality for all but one forecaster. In the case of a forecast horizon of one year, forecast optimality is rejected in more cases if the underlying loss function is assumed to be quadratic. Allowing for a flexible loss function results in more favorable assessment of forecast optimality.

Die deutsche Rüstungsexportpolitik.

The laws regulating the exports of arms are relatively strong in Germany. But in practice, until today all German governments, irrespective of their political affiliation, have only made weak efforts to enforce the compliance of laws and regulations and hardly any attempts to close loopholes like the uncontrolled licensed production in other countries. This is why German arms, especially small arms like machine guns from Heckler & Koch, are not only used by government agencies to which they have been officially delivered, but also, often as a result of a blowback effect, by their opponents, e.g. ISIS militia groups. The article retraces the transfer of arms to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria in the last decades and argues that this has contributed to the prolongation and brutalization of the wars in these countries. Hence, the German export of arms must also be seen as a major factor for the ongoing migration of refugees to Europe. Finally, this raises the question, if there are tendencies to stop or at least to reduce the fatal exports.

Gute deutsche Politik

The German government and especially Wolfgang Schaeuble were heavily criticized for the harsh policy against Greece not only because of damaging Greece but also because of damaging German reputation. The article argues that they just follow German interests: Germany is economically and politically the big winner of the crisis. The German export economy is fueled by the weak Euro and the German state saves since 2010 more than 100 Billion by extremely low interest rates for German bonds. The Eurozone is formed according to the German austerity model and will be used by German capital and export-oriented factions of the European capital as a strong basis in global competition. The conflict with Greece shows that any economically weak member of the Euro-zone has no chance against the coalition between Germany and the ECB, they have to submit. Who wants to enter Euro-zone should have this in mind.

What's the Matter with Germany? On Fetishizations of the Euro Crisis in Germany's Public Discourse, and Their Basis in Social Processes and Relations

I use hegemonic German interpretations of the current crisis of the Euro as my point of departure to discuss why ideological interpretations of the crisis prevail in Germany. As such worldviews are rooted in social processes and relations, I discuss some that are relevant to the present conjuncture: uneven development and circuits of trade and credit/debt within the Eurozone, the history and scalar construction of the EU and the Euro, and the role of German export oriented capital. I focus on three fetishizations that structure interpretations favoring the interests of capital over those of the working classes: the fetishization of credit/debt, the fetishization of competitiveness, and the fetishization of territory.