Reactive species from aviation in the multi-scale climate-chemistry model system MECO(n)

<p>Aviation aims to reduce its climate impact by identifying promising mitigation options which are able to reduce the overall climate effects of aviation considering CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> effects. While aiming to identify fuel optimal trajectories, aviation also aims to reduce the non-CO<sub>2</sub> effects comprising NO<sub>x</sub>-induced changes of atmospheric ozone and methane. Here climate-chemistry models are required which are able to quantify perturbations in atmospheric composition of reactive species (NO<sub>x</sub>, O<sub>3</sub>) and the associated radiative forcings of aviation emissions relying on advanced modelling capabilities, realistic emission inventory data and global-scale observational datasets from research infrastructures like IAGOS and DLR aircraft measurement campaign data.</p> <p>We use the multi-scale climate-chemistry MECO(n) system which is a “MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO nested n-times”, relying on the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. For this purpose, both models have been equipped with the MESSy infrastructure, implying that the same process formulations (MESSy submodels) are available for both models. Modelled atmospheric distributions are systematically compared to observational data from aircraft measurements in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nudging of meteorology to ERA5 interim data, and special diagnostics available within the modular MESSy infrastructure are implemented in the numerical simulations. Online sampling along aircraft trajectories allows to extract model data with a high temporal resolution (MESSy submodel S4D), in order to evaluate model representation and key processes.</p> <p>Beyond systematic evaluation with IAGOS scheduled aircraft measurements, episodes will be evaluated where dedicated measurements from aircraft campaigns are available, comprising Spring 2014 (ML-CIRRUS campaign), early summer 2020 (Blue Sky campaign) and summer 2021 (Cirrus-HL campaign). Our analysis of reactive species, NO<sub>y</sub> and ozone, identifies those weather pattern and synoptic situations where aviation contributes strong signals, resulting in recommendations on measurement strategies to detect aviation signal in the atmosphere. We evaluate model representation of the NO<sub>x</sub>-induces effect on radiatively active species ozone and methane in both model instances, ECHAM5 and COSMO. This is key for advancing the scientific understanding of NO<sub>x</sub>-induced effects from aviation which is required in order to quantify potential compensation and trade-offs when identifying robust mitigation options for sustainable aviation.</p> <p>This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 875036 (ACACIA, Advancing the Science for Aviation and Climate) and has been supported by the DLR-Projekt Eco2Fly. This work uses measurement data from the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS/CARIBIC. High-Performance Super Computing simulations have been performed by the Deutsches Klima-Rechenzentrum (DKRZ, Hamburg) and the Leibniz-Rechenzentrum (LRZ, München).</p>

Characterisation of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex mixing barrier

<p>The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole. In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed. Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality. Considerable improvement in the representation of the ACV can be achieved by shifting from 2-D to 3-D prescribed ozone fields, and interactive ozone chemistry further improves its representation. However, discrepancies in model representation of the ACV still remain. Previous researchers have also attributed discrepancies in model representation of the polar vortices to the model resolution, and the parameterization of gravity waves at the sub-grid scale -- these factors are considered to contribute to the discrepancies found in simulations undertaken here also. The results of this research are expected to provide guidance to improve the representation of vortex processes in climate modelling.</p>

Characterisation of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex mixing barrier

<p>The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole. In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed. Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality. Considerable improvement in the representation of the ACV can be achieved by shifting from 2-D to 3-D prescribed ozone fields, and interactive ozone chemistry further improves its representation. However, discrepancies in model representation of the ACV still remain. Previous researchers have also attributed discrepancies in model representation of the polar vortices to the model resolution, and the parameterization of gravity waves at the sub-grid scale -- these factors are considered to contribute to the discrepancies found in simulations undertaken here also. The results of this research are expected to provide guidance to improve the representation of vortex processes in climate modelling.</p>