Bayesian Constitutionalization: Twitter Sentiment Analysis of the Chilean Constitutional Process through Bayesian Network Classifiers

Constitutional processes are a cornerstone of modern democracies. Whether revolutionary or institutionally organized, they establish the core values of social order and determine the institutional architecture that governs social life. Constitutional processes are themselves evolutionary practices of mutual learning in which actors, regardless of their initial political positions, continuously interact with each other, demonstrating differences and making alliances regarding different topics. In this article, we develop Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) classifiers to model the behavior of constituent agents. According to the nature of the constituent dynamics, weights are learned by the model from the data using an evolution strategy to obtain a good classification performance. For our analysis, we used the constituent agents’ communications on Twitter during the installation period of the Constitutional Convention (July–October 2021). In order to differentiate political positions (left, center, right), we applied the developed algorithm to obtain the scores of 882 ballots cast in the first stage of the convention (4 July to 29 September 2021). Then, we used k-means to identify three clusters containing right-wing, center, and left-wing positions. Experimental results obtained using the three constructed datasets showed that using alternative weight values in the TAN construction procedure, inferred by an evolution strategy, yielded improvements in the classification accuracy measured in the test sets compared to the results of the TAN constructed with conditional mutual information, as well as other Bayesian network classifier construction approaches. Additionally, our results may help us to better understand political behavior in constitutional processes and to improve the accuracy of TAN classifiers applied to social, real-world data.

Cross Entropy Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy Solving the Bi-Level Bidding Optimization Problem in Local Energy Markets with Renewables

The increased penetration of renewables in distribution power systems has motivated researchers to take significant interest in local energy transactions. The major goal of Local Energy Markets (LEM) is to promote the participation of small consumers in energy transactions and providing an opportunity for transactive energy systems. Such energy transactions in LEM are considered as a bi-level optimization problem in which all agents at upper and lower levels try to maximize their profits. But typical bi-level problem is very complex as it is inherently nonlinear, discontinued and strongly NP-hard. So, this article proposes the application of hybridized Cross Entropy Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CE-CMAES) to tackle such a complex bi-level problem of LEM. The proposed CE-CMAES secured the 1st rank in Testbed-2 entitled, “Bi-level optimization of end-users’ bidding strategies in local energy markets (LM)” at international competitions on Smart Grid Problems, held at GECCO 2020 and WCCI 2020. CE method is used for global exploration of search space and CMAES is used for local exploitation as its adaptive step-size mechanism prevents its premature convergence. A practical distribution system with renewable energy penetration is considered for simulation. The comparative analysis shows that the overall cost, mean fitness and Ranking Index (R.I) obtained from CE-CMAES are superior to those obtained from the state-of-the-art participated algorithms. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Statistical test also proves that CE-CMAES is statistically different from the tested algorithms.

Using Optimisation Meta-Heuristics for the Roughness Estimation Problem in River Flow Analysis

Climate change threats make it difficult to perform reliable and quick predictions on floods forecasting. This gives rise to the need of having advanced methods, e.g., computational intelligence tools, to improve upon the results from flooding events simulations and, in turn, design best practices for riverbed maintenance. In this context, being able to accurately estimate the roughness coefficient, also known as Manning’s n coefficient, plays an important role when computational models are employed. In this piece of research, we propose an optimal approach for the estimation of ‘n’. First, an objective function is designed for measuring the quality of ‘candidate’ Manning’s coefficients relative to specif cross-sections of a river. Second, such function is optimised to return coefficients having the highest quality as possible. Five well-known meta-heuristic algorithms are employed to achieve this goal, these being a classic Evolution Strategy, a Differential Evolution algorithm, the popular Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy, a classic Particle Swarm Optimisation and a Bayesian Optimisation framework. We report results on two real-world case studies based on the Italian rivers ‘Paglia’ and ‘Aniene’. A comparative analysis between the employed optimisation algorithms is performed and discussed both empirically and statistically. From the hydrodynamic point of view, the experimental results are satisfactory and produced within significantly less computational time in comparison to classic methods. This shows the suitability of the proposed approach for optimal estimation of the roughness coefficient and, in turn, for designing optimised hydrological models.

Optimizing the Sowing Date to Improve Water Management and Wheat Yield in a Large Irrigation Scheme, through a Remote Sensing and an Evolution Strategy-Based Approach

This study aims to investigate the effects of an optimized sowing calendar for wheat over a surface irrigation scheme in the semi-arid region of Haouz (Morocco) on irrigation water requirements, crop growth and development and on yield. For that, a scenario-based simulation approach based on the covariance matrix adaptation–evolution strategy (CMA-ES) was proposed to optimize both the spatiotemporal distribution of sowing dates and the irrigation schedules, and then evaluate wheat crop using the 2011–2012 growing season dataset. Six sowing scenarios were simulated and compared to identify the most optimal spatiotemporal sowing calendar. The obtained results showed that with reference to the existing sowing patterns, early sowing of wheat leads to higher yields compared to late sowing (from 7.40 to 5.32 t/ha). Compared with actual conditions in the study area, the spatial heterogeneity is highly reduced, which increased equity between farmers. The results also showed that the proportion of plots irrigated in time can be increased (from 40% to 82%) compared to both the actual irrigation schedules and to previous results of irrigation optimization, which did not take into consideration sowing dates optimization. Furthermore, considerable reduction of more than 40% of applied irrigation water can be achieved by optimizing sowing dates. Thus, the proposed approach in this study is relevant for irrigation managers and farmers since it provides an insight on the consequences of their agricultural practices regarding the wheat sowing calendar and irrigation scheduling and can be implemented to recommend the best practices to adopt.

A multi-objective optimization platform for artificial lighting system in commercial greenhouses

Limited natural daylight in Nordic Countries means artificial lighting is a critical factor in industrial plant production. The electricity cost of artificial lights accounts for a large percentage of the overall cost of plant production. The optimal use of artificial lighting in plant production can be formulated as a multi-objective problem (MOP) to achieve optimal plant growth while minimizing electricity cost. In previous work, for solving this MOP, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to create a Pareto Frontier (PF), which contains solutions representing a trade-off for using artificial lighting against plant production objectives. The PF was updated immediately once a non-dominated child-solution was found by comparing the dominance with solutions in the PF. Besides, in addition to the PF, the initial random population is also reused as a parent source in the evolution process. When the genetic evolution process terminated, a priority-based selection mechanism was used to select a final solution from the PF. In this paper, an alternative evolution strategy is proposed and compared with the previous GA evolution strategy. By this alternative strategy, all child-solutions are only compared with their parents during the evolution process, and the non-dominated child-solutions are collected into a candidate list. The PF is then updated at the end of each generation by comparing solutions on the PF with the collected candidate solutions. In this alternative strategy, the PF is the only source of parent-solution during the evolution process. In addition, a posterior normalization is implemented in the dominance evaluation, and social welfare metrics (SWs) are applied as an alternative to the priority-based selection mechanism to avoid the explicit ranking of objectives. The experimental results show that the proposed alternative evolution strategy outperforms the previous strategy on dramatically avoiding local minima.