Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance dc strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by MW 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains dc to be ≤10 mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick–slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Migratory earthquake precursors are dominant on an ice stream fault

Simple fault models predict earthquake nucleation near the eventual hypocenter (self-nucleation). However, some earthquakes have migratory foreshocks and possibly slow slip that travel large distances toward the eventual mainshock hypocenter (migratory nucleation). Scarce observations of migratory nucleation may result from real differences between faults or merely observational limitations. We use Global Positioning System and passive seismic records of the easily observed daily ice stream earthquake cycle of the Whillans Ice Plain, West Antarctica, to quantify the prevalence of migratory versus self-nucleation in a large-scale, natural stick-slip system. We find abundant and predominantly migratory precursory slip, whereas self-nucleation is nearly absent. This demonstration that migratory nucleation exists on a natural fault implies that more-observable migratory precursors may also occur before some earthquakes.

On the scaling between precursory moment release and earthquake magnitude: Insights from the laboratory.

<p>Recent seismological observations highlighted that both aseismic silent slip and/or foreshock sequences can precede large earthquake ruptures (Tohoku-Oki, 2011, Mw 9.0  (Kato et al., 2012); Iquique, 2014, Mw 8.1 (Ruiz et al, 2014; Socquet et al., 2017); Illapel, 2015, Mw 8.3 (Huang and Meng, 2018); Nicoya, 2012, Mw 7.6 (Voss et al., 2018)). However, the evolution of such precursory markers during earthquake nucleation remains poorly understood. Here, we report for the first time, experimental results regarding the nucleation of laboratory earthquakes (stick slip events) conducted on Westerly Granite saw-cut samples under both dry and fluid pressure conditions. Experiments were conducted under stress conditions representative of the upper continental crust, i.e confining pressures from 50 to 95 MPa; fluid pressures (water) ranging from 0 to 45 MPa.</p><p>At a given effective confining pressure, different precursory slip behaviors are observed. In dry conditions, we observe that slip evolves exponentially up to the main instability and is escorted by an exponential increase of acoustic emissions. With pressurized fluids, precursory slip evolves first exponentially then switches to a power law of time. There, precursory slip remains silent, independently of the fluid pressure level. The temporal evolution of precursory fault slip and seismicity are controlled by the fault’s environment, limiting its prognostic value. Nevertheless, we show that, independently of the fault conditions, the total precursory moment release scales with the co-seismic moment of the main instability. The relation follows a semi- empirical scaling relationship between precursory and co-seismic moment release by combining nucleation theory (Ida, 1972; Campillo and Ionescu, 1992) with the scaling between fracture energy and co-seismic slip which has been demonstrated experimentally (Nielsen et al., 2016; Passelègue et al., 2016), theoretically (Viesca and Garagash; 2015) and by natural observations (Abercrombie and Rice; 2005). We then compile data from natural earthquakes, and show that, over a range of Mw6.0 to Mw9.0 the proposed scaling law holds for natural observations. In summary, the amount of moment released prior to an earthquake is directly related to its magnitude, increasing therefore the detectability of large earthquakes. The scaling relationship between precursory and co-seismic moment should motivate detailed studies of precursory deformation of moderate to large earthquakes.</p>

Testing a model of earthquake nucleation

Some laboratory models of slip find that a critical amount (or velocity) of slow slip is required over a nucleation patch before dynamic failure begins. Typically, such patch sizes, when extrapolated to earthquakes, have been thought to be very small and the precursory slip undetectable. Ohnaka (1992, 1993) has proposed a model in which foreshocks delineate a growing zone of quasi-static slip that nucleates the dynamic rupture and suggests that it could be large enough (∼10 km across) to be detectable and thus useful for short-term earthquake prediction. The 1992 Landers earthquake (M 7.3) had a distinctive foreshock sequence and initiated only 70 km from the strain meters at the Piñon Flat Observatory (PFO). We use this earthquake to investigate the validity and usefulness of Ohnaka's model. The accurate relocations of Dodge et al. (1995) show that the foreshock zone can be interpreted as expanding from an area of 800 m (along strike) by 900 m (in depth), to 2000 by 3200 m in the 6.5 hr before the mainshock. We have calculated the deformation signals expected both at PFO and 20 km from the foreshock zone, assuming either constant slip or constant stress drop on a circular patch expanding at 5 cm/sec over 6.5 hr. We find the slips or stress drops would have to have been implausibly high (meters or kilobars) to have been detectable on the strain meters at PFO. Slightly better limits are possible only 20 km from the source. Even though the distance from Landers to PFO is small compared with the average spacing of strain meters in California, we are unable to prove or disprove Ohnaka's model of earthquake nucleation. This suggests that even if the model is valid, it will not be useful for short-term prediction.

Slip on the Superstition Hills fault and on nearby faults associated with the 24 November 1987 Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills earthquakes, southern California

Alignment arrays and creepmeters spanning several faults in southern California recorded slip associated with the 24 November 1987 Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills earthquakes. No precursory slip had occurred on the Superstition Hills fault up to 27 October 1987, when the last measurement before the earthquakes was made. About 23 days before the earthquake, dextral creep events of about 13 mm and 0.5 mm may have occurred simultaneously on the Imperial and southern San Andreas faults, respectively, but the tectonic origin of the smaller event is questionable. Within 12 hr after the Superstition Hills earthquake, 20.9 cm of dextral slip occurred on the main fault trace at the Superstition Hills alignment array, and 39.8 cm of dextral slip was recorded over the entire 110-m width of the array. Despite this initial wide distribution of slip, nearly all of the postseismic slip is occurring on the main fault trace. As of 3 August 1988, the alignment array had recorded a total of 80.2 cm of dextral slip. As of 5 days after the earthquakes, 65 to 80 per cent of the total slip measured by the alignment array had occurred on discrete, mappable fractures. In addition, the two earthquakes triggered slip on the Coyote Creek fault, the southern San Andreas fault, and on the Imperial fault. Telemetered data from creepmeters on the southern San Andreas and Imperial faults indicate that triggered slip began there within 3 min or less of each of the two earthquakes. Additional triggered slip occurred on the Imperial fault beginning 3.5 hr after the second earthquake.

Comparing strain events: A case study for the Homestead Valley earthquakes

We present a procedure for comparing strain events at different sites, and apply it to observations for the Homestead Valley earthquake sequence of 15 March 1979. Coseismic strain steps occurred on two laser strainmeters at Piñon Flat Observatory (PFO) and on a creepmeter spanning the San Andreas fault at Wiebe Ranch (XWR); the creepmeter records were studied by Leary and Malin (1984). The PFO coseismic strains are consistent with a source model derived from near-field geodetic measurements, while the XWR coseismic extension is 1200 times too large and of the wrong sign. The XWR instrument showed an anomalous extension about 20 hours before the earthquake (Leary and Malin, 1984), but no such signals were detected on the PFO strainmeters at this time. To compare these preseismic observations we must make some assumption about the preseismic source, and we choose to assume that any precursory slip occurred on the fault plane that eventually ruptured. Under this assumption, the preseismic XWR and PFO records cannot be reconciled unless the preseismic dislocation is left-lateral or mostly thrust, and the fault zone at XWR magnifies strain by a factor of 2900 or more. This strain magnification implies that the fault-zone shear modulus at XWR is 107 Pa, three orders of magnitude smaller than the shear modulus of typical crustal rocks. However, earth-tide observations at XWR constrain the strain magnification at this site to be less than about 55. Thus the preseismic extension at XWR is probably not a precursor to the Homestead Valley earthquake.