Stratigraphic Architecture of the Karoo River Channels at the End-Capitanian

The main Karoo Basin of southern Africa contains the continental record of the end-Triassic, end-Permian, and end-Capitanian mass extinction events. Of these, the environmental drivers of the end-Capitanian are least known. Integrating quantitative stratigraphic architecture analysis from abundant outcrop profiles, paleocurrent measurements, and petrography, this study investigates the stratigraphic interval that records the end-Capitanian extinction event in the southwestern and southern main Karoo Basin and demonstrates that this biotic change coincided with a subtle variation in the stratigraphic architectural style ∼260 Ma ago. Our multi-proxy sedimentological work not only defines the depositional setting of the succession as a megafan system that drained the foothills of the Cape Fold Belt, but also attempts to differentiate the tectonic and climatic controls on the fluvial architecture of this paleontologically important Permian succession. Our results reveal limited changes in sediment sources, paleocurrents, sandstone body geometries, and possibly a constant hot, semi-arid paleoclimate during the deposition of the studied interval; however, the stratigraphic trends show upward increase in 1) laterally accreted, sandy architectural elements and 2) architectural elements that build a portion of the floodplain deposits. We consider this to reflect a long-term retrogradational stacking pattern of facies composition that can be linked to changes on the medial parts of southward draining megafans, where channel sinuosity increased, and depositional energy decreased at the end-Capitanian. The shift in the fluvial architecture was likely triggered by basin-wide allogenic controls rather than local autogenic processes because this trend is observed in the coeval stratigraphic intervals from geographically disparate areas in the southwestern and southern main Karoo Basin. Consequently, we propose that this regional backstepping most likely resulted from tectonic events in the adjacent Cape Fold Belt.

A framework for the integrated analysis of the magnitude, selectivity, and biotic effects of extinction and origination

The taxonomic and ecologic composition of Earth's biota has shifted dramatically through geologic time, with some clades going extinct while others diversified. Here, we derive a metric that quantifies the change in biotic composition due to extinction or origination and show that it equals the product of extinction/origination magnitude and selectivity (variation in magnitude among groups). We also define metrics that describe the extent to which a recovery (1) reinforced or reversed the effects of extinction on biotic composition and (2) changed composition in ways uncorrelated with the extinction. To demonstrate the approach, we analyzed an updated compilation of stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. We show that mass extinctions were not more selective than background intervals at the phylum level; rather, they tended to drive greater taxonomic change due to their higher magnitudes. Mass extinctions did not represent a separate class of events with respect to either strength of selectivity or effect. Similar observations apply to origination during recoveries from mass extinctions, and on average, extinction and origination were similarly selective and drove similar amounts of biotic change. Elevated origination during recoveries drove bursts of compositional change that varied considerably in effect. In some cases, origination partially reversed the effects of extinction, returning the biota toward the pre-extinction composition; in others, it reinforced the effects of the extinction, magnifying biotic change. Recoveries were as important as extinction events in shaping the marine biota, and their selectivity deserves systematic study alongside that of extinction.

Precision in Biostratigraphy: Evidence For a Temporary Flow Reversal in the Central American Seaway During Or After the Oligocene-miocene Transition

The Oligocene-Miocene Transition (OMT) was a time of significant oceanic, climatic, and biotic change, but there is still a great deal we do not understand about its effects, particularly in terms of ocean circulation. The Central American Seaway (CAS) was an important ocean gateway at this time; recent fully coupled modeling results have suggested a possible temporary reversal of surface flow, from westward to eastward, during the OMT. Such a flow reversal would have altered numerous oceanographic properties and the dispersal of marine taxa. Here, we find a mismatch in the timing of the Atlantic vs. Pacific first appearances of the tropical mixed layer planktic foraminifer Paragloborotalia kugleri, a key zonal marker for the OMT. The first appearance ages for P. kugleri from fourteen ocean drilling sites vary from ∼23.2–23.05 Ma in the Pacific to ∼23.05–22.7 Ma in the Atlantic. Key requirements for including a site in this compilation are: 1) sampling resolution; 2) independent non-biostratigraphic chronology, such as magnetostratigraphy or orbital tuning; and 3) a preference for shore-based biostratigraphic analyses rather than shipboard estimates. Although we explore alternative explanations, we conclude that, given the restricted nature of the CAS gateway, timing of dispersal, and results from previous modeling efforts, CAS flow reversal is the most parsimonious explanation for the delayed first appearance of P. kugleri in the Atlantic relative to the Pacific. We suggest that after originating in the tropical Pacific, P. kugleri was initially blocked from dispersal into the Atlantic by westward surface circulation through the CAS during the latest Oligocene. During the OMT, circulation reversed and Pacific surface water flowed through the CAS into the Atlantic, allowing P. kugleri to disperse into the Atlantic. Previously published ocean-climate simulations suggest that the cause of this reversed flow may be related to the progressive constriction of Tethys and opening of the Drake Passage at the time of the OMT, compounded by a short-lived glaciation event in Antarctica and possible change in meridional temperature gradient and prevailing wind patterns in the tropics.

Unifying ecosystem resistance, resilience, and recovery from extreme stress into a single statistical framework

Natural communities and ecosystems are currently experiencing unprecedented rates of environmental and biotic change. While gradual shifts in average conditions, such as rising mean air temperatures, can significantly alter ecosystem function, ecologists recently acknowledged that the most damaging consequences of global change will probably emanate from both a higher prevalence and increased intensity of extreme climatic stress events. Given the potential ecological and societal ramifications of more frequent disturbances, it is imperative that we identify which ecosystems are most vulnerable to global change by accurately quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme stress. Unfortunately, the lack of a standardized method for estimating ecosystem sensitivity to drought makes drawing general conclusions difficult. There is a need for estimates of resistance/resilience/legacy effects that are free of observation error, not biased by stochasticity in production or rainfall, and standardizes stress magnitude among many disparate ecosystems relative to normal interannual variability. Here, I propose a statistical framework that estimates all three components of ecosystem response to stress using standardized language (resistance, resilience, recovery, and legacy effects) while resolving all of the issues described above. Coupling autoregressive time series with exogenous predictors (ARX) models with impulse response functions (IRFs) allows researchers to statistically subject all ecosystems to similar levels of stress, estimate legacy effects, and obtain a standardized estimate of ecosystem resistance and resilience to drought free from observation error and stochastic processes inherent in raw data. This method will enable researchers to rigorously compare resistance and resilience among locations using long-term time series, thereby improving our knowledge of ecosystem responses to extreme stress.

Species boundaries and contemporary evolution

Much of the evolutionary study of species is retrospective and reconstructs the past processes leading to extant diversity. Yet the nature of species and extent of diversity has profound implications for adaptation to ongoing environmental and biotic change. This chapter considers the significance of species and species boundaries for contemporary evolution. Simple theory and evidence is presented, showing how partial gene flow between co-occurring species alters the dynamics of evolution in changing environments. The chapter then focuses on gene transfer in microbial populations, showing how plasmids and phage target transfer to particular subsets of genes, and thereby optimize adaptation in fluctuating environments. The costs and benefits depend on the ecological interactions among the donor and recipient species. Different mechanisms have a different range of transfer, with phage being mainly restricted to species, but plasmids often transferring traits across greater taxonomic distances.

Global cooling & the rise of modern grasslands: Revealing cause & effect of environmental change on insect diversification dynamics

Utilising geo-historical environmental data to disentangle cause and effect in complex natural systems is a major goal in our quest to better understand how climate change has shaped life on Earth. Global temperature is known to drive biotic change over macro-evolutionary time-scales but the mechanisms by which it acts are often unclear. Here, we model speciation rates for Orthoptera within a phylogenetic framework and use this to demonstrate that global cooling is strongly correlated with increased speciation rates. Transfer Entropy analyses reveal the presence of one or more additional processes that are required to explain the information transfer from global temperature to Orthoptera speciation. We identify the rise of C4 grasslands as one such mechanism operating from the Miocene onwards. We therefore demonstrate the value of the geological record in increasing our understanding of climate change on macro-evolutionary and macro-ecological processes.