Uncertain Time: Precarious Schedules and Job Turnover in the US Service Sector

The authors develop a model of cumulative disadvantage relating three axes of disadvantage for hourly workers in the US retail and food service sectors: schedule instability, turnover, and earnings. In this model, exposure to unstable work schedules disrupts workers’ family and economic lives, straining the employment relation and increasing the likelihood of turnover, which can then lead to earnings losses. Drawing on new panel data from 1,827 hourly workers in retail and food service collected as part of the Shift Project, the authors demonstrate that exposure to schedule instability is a strong, robust predictor of turnover for workers with relatively unstable schedules (about one-third of the sample). Slightly less than half of this relationship is mediated by job satisfaction and another quarter by work–family conflict. Job turnover is generally associated with earnings losses due to unemployment, but workers leaving jobs with moderately unstable schedules experience earnings growth upon re-employment.

Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain

Young workers in Spain face the unprecedented impact of the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis in short sequence. Moreover, they have also experienced a deterioration in their employment and earnings over the last three decades. In this paper, we document this evolution and adopt a longitudinal approach to show that employment and earnings losses suffered by young workers during recessions are not made up in the subsequent expansions. We also estimate the size of the scarring effects of entering the job market in a recession for college-educated workers during their first decade in the labor market. Our empirical estimates indicate that while there is some evidence of scarring effects, the driving force is a trend worsening of youth labor market outcomes.

Budget Ratcheting and Debtholders’ Monitoring: Evidence from Private Colleges and Universities

This study examines whether budget ratcheting occurs in Japanese private colleges and universities (PC&Us) and how debtholders affect it. We predict that managers of Japanese PC&Us have incentives to increase their budgets in order to enhance their reputation from internal stakeholders; moreover, most of their stakeholders are less likely to strictly monitor the manager’s behavior, which creates the opportunity for budget ratcheting. First, we find that the budget for program expense increases associated with prior year overspending is larger than for decreases associated with underspending of the same amount, consistent with the budget ratcheting hypothesis. Second, we also find that the extent of budget ratcheting is less pronounced in PC&Us with debtholders and earnings losses, suggesting that debtholders such as banks monitor budgetary practices. This study contributes to the budget ratcheting literature by adding new findings on the budget ratcheting practices of nonprofit organizations, namely, PC&Us.

Policies to Help the Working Class in the Aftermath of COVID-19: Lessons from the Great Recession

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated government-mandated shutdowns caused a historic shock to the U.S. economy and a disproportionate job loss concentrated among the working class. While an unprecedented social safety net policy response successfully offset earnings losses among lower-wage workers, the risk of continued and persistent unemployment remains higher among the working class. The key lesson from the Great Recession is that strong economic growth and a hot labor market do more to improve the economic well-being of the working class and historically disadvantaged groups than a slow recovery that relies on safety net policies to help replace lost earnings. Thus, the best way to prevent a “k-shaped” recovery is to ensure that safety net policies do not interfere with a return to the strong pre-pandemic economy once the health risk subsides and that progrowth policies that incentivize business investment and hiring are maintained.

Job Loss, Credit, and Crime in Colombia

We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass layoffs, on criminal arrests using a matched employer-employee crime dataset from Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate and persistent earnings losses and higher probability of arrest for both the displaced worker and family members. Leveraging a banking policy reform, we find that greater access to credit attenuates the criminal response to job loss. Impacts on arrests are pronounced for property crimes and among younger men for whom opportunities in criminal enterprises are prevalent. Taken together, our results are consistent with economic incentives contributing to criminal participation decisions after job losses. (JEL G21, G51, J63, K42, O16, O17)

Financial Profiles of Workers Most Vulnerable to Coronavirus-Related Earnings Loss in the Spring of 2020

In spring 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and related shutdowns had huge effects on unemployment. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we describe the financial profiles of US families whose workers were most vulnerable to coronavirus-related earnings losses in the spring of 2020, based on whether a particular worker was deemed "essential" and whether a worker's job could be conducted remotely. We use descriptive analytic techniques to examine how families' baseline financial situations would allow them to weather COVID-shutdown-related earnings losses. We find that families with non-teleworkable workers who were most vulnerable to layoff also had both demographic and financial profiles that are associated with greater vulnerability to income shocks: non-teleworkable families were more likely to be people of color and single wage-earners, and also to have less savings. The median non-teleworkable family, whether in non-essential or essential occupations, held only three weeks of income in savings, underscoring the importance of policy measures to blunt the financial effect of the COVID crisis.