Origin of Extremely Intense Southward Component of Magnetic Field (Bs) in ICMEs

The intensity of the southward component of the magnetic field (Bs) carried by Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) is one of the most critical parameters in causing extreme space weather events, such as intense geomagnetic storms. In this work, we investigate three typical ICME events with extremely intense Bs in detail and present a statistical analysis of the origins of intense Bs in different types of ICMEs based on the ICME catalogue from 1995 to 2020. According to the in-situ characteristics, the ICME events with extremely high Bs are classified into three types: isolated ICMEs, multiple ICMEs, and shock-ICME interaction events with shocks inside ICMEs or shocks passing through ICMEs. By analyzing all ICME events with Bs ≥ 10nT and Bs ≥ 20nT, we find that 39.6% of Bs,mean ≥ 10nT events and 50% of Bs,mean ≥ 20nT events are associated with shock-ICME events. Approximately 35.7% of shock-ICME events have Bs,mean ≥ 10nT, which is much higher than the other two types (isoloted ICMEs: 7.2% and multiple ICMEs: 12.1%). Those results confirm that the ICMEs interaction events are more likely to carry extreme intense Bs and cause intense geomagntic storms. Only based on the in-situ observations at Earth, some interaction ICME events, such as shock-ICME interaction events with shocks passing through the preceding ICME or ICME cannibalism, could be classified as isolated ICME events. This may lead to an overestimate of the probability of ICME carrying extremely intense Bs. To further investigate such events, direct and multi-point observations of the CME propagation in the inner heliosphere from the Solar Ring Mission could be crucial in the future.

Carrington Longitudinal and Solar Cycle Distribution of the Super Active Regions From 1976 to 2018

We studied the Carrington longitudinal and solar cycle distribution of the super active regions (SARs) from 1976to 2018. There were 51 SARs during this period. We divided the SARs into SARs1 and SARs2. SARs1 refers tothe SARs that produced extreme space weather events including ≥X5.0 flares, ground level events (GLEs) andsuper geomagnetic storms (SGSs: Dst≤ −250 nT), while SARs2 did not produce extreme space weather events.The total number of SARs1 and SARs2 are 32 and 19, respectively. The statistical results show that 34.4%, 65.6%and 78.1% of the SARs1 appeared in the ascending phase, descending phase and in the period from two yearsbefore to the three years after the solar maximum, respectively, while 52.6%, 47.4% and 100% of the SARs2appeared in the ascending phase, descending phase and in the period from two years before to the three years aftersolar maximum, respectively. The Carrington longitude distribution of the SARs1 shows that SARs1 in thelongitudinal scope of [0,150°] produced ≥X5.0 flares and GLEs, while only the SARs1 in the longitude range of[150°,360°] not only produced ≥X5.0 flares and GLEs, but also produced SGSs. The total number of SARsduring a SC has a good correlation with the SC size. However, the largest flare index of a SAR within a SC has apoor correlation with the SC size, implying that the number of SARs in a weak SC will be small. However, aweak SC may have a SAR that can produce very strong solar flare activities.

Extreme Space Weather Events during the First Cycles of Epochs with Decreased Solar Activity

The problem of the distribution of extreme and very strong magnetic storms with intensities (G5, G4) in the first cycles (12 and 24) of epochs of lowered solar activity was considered based on homogeneous series of the geomagnetic index Aa with allowance for the modern scale of the intensity of disturbances in the near-Earth space and the scenario of solar cyclicity. The significant decrease in the number of such events and active solar phenomena in the last cycle may indicate that the sunspot and flare activity in solar cycle 12 was significantly higher than that in cycle 24, but it was significantly lower than in solar cycles of the epoch of increased solar activity.

Space weather: risk factors for Global Navigation Satellite Systems

Extreme space weather events affect the stability and quality of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) of the second generation (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, BeiDou/Compass) and GNSS augmentation. We review the theory about mechanisms behind the impact of geomagnetic storms, ionospheric irregularities, and powerful solar radio bursts on the GNSS user segment. We also summarize experimental observations of the space weather effects on GNSS performance in 2000–2020 to confirm the theory. We analyze the probability of failures in measurements of radio navigation parameters, decrease in positioning accuracy of GNSS users in dual-frequency mode and differential navigation mode (RTK), and in precise point positioning (PPP). Additionally, the review includes data on the occurrence of dangerous and extreme space weather phenomena and the possibility for predicting their im- pact on the GNSS user segment. The main conclusions of the review are as follows: 1) the positioning error in GNSS users may increase up to 10 times in various modes during extreme space weather events, as compared to the background level; 2) GNSS space and ground segments have been significantly modernized over the past decade, thus allowing a substantial in- crease in noise resistance of GNSS under powerful solar radio burst impacts; 3) there is a great possibility for increasing the tracking stability and accuracy of radio navigation parameters by introducing algorithms for adaptive lock loop tuning, taking into account the influence of space weather events; 4) at present, the urgent scientific and technical problem of modernizing GNSS by improving the scientific methodology, hardware and software for monitoring the system integrity and monitoring the availability of required navigation parameters, taking into account the impact of extreme space weather events, is still unresolved.

Space weather: risk factors for Global Navigation Satellite Systems

Extreme space weather events affect the stability and quality of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) of the second generation (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, BeiDou/Compass) and GNSS augmentation. We review the theory about mechanisms behind the impact of geomagnetic storms, ionospheric irregularities, and powerful solar radio bursts on the GNSS user segment. We also summarize experimental observations of the space weather effects on GNSS performance in 2000–2020 to confirm the theory. We analyze the probability of failures in measurements of radio navigation parameters, decrease in positioning accuracy of GNSS users in dual-frequency mode and differential navigation mode (RTK), and in precise point positioning (PPP). Additionally, the review includes data on the occurrence of dangerous and extreme space weather phenomena and the possibility for predicting their im- pact on the GNSS user segment. The main conclusions of the review are as follows: 1) the positioning error in GNSS users may increase up to 10 times in various modes during extreme space weather events, as compared to the background level; 2) GNSS space and ground segments have been significantly modernized over the past decade, thus allowing a substantial in- crease in noise resistance of GNSS under powerful solar radio burst impacts; 3) there is a great possibility for increasing the tracking stability and accuracy of radio navigation parameters by introducing algorithms for adaptive lock loop tuning, taking into account the influence of space weather events; 4) at present, the urgent scientific and technical problem of modernizing GNSS by improving the scientific methodology, hardware and software for monitoring the system integrity and monitoring the availability of required navigation parameters, taking into account the impact of extreme space weather events, is still unresolved.

The relevance of local magnetic records when using extreme space weather events as benchmarks

Space weather indices introduced for scientific purposes are commonly used to quantify operational nowcast of the geospace state during extreme space weather events. Some indices, such as the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index, have been applied to situations for which they are not originally intended. This raises a question about suitability as a space weather benchmark. In analysing historical records for different magnetometers at low- and mid-latitude, we find periods with longitudinal asymmetry in magnetic response that suggest important signals from individual magnetometers are being averaged out of the Dst record. This asymmetry develops as a double spike in the H-component: one negative in the observatories in the day sector and one positive in the observatories in the night sector. These spikes develop in short-time (about 2 hours) and pose a potential hazardous effect for users affected by space weather. The results from historical events have been reinforced with the systematic study of magnetic records during extreme events (Dst ≤ -200 nT and AL ≤ -2000 nT) in the period 1998-2017 from six magnetic observatories at about 40° magnetic latitude. Moreover, we show that the largest asymmetries take place during the early main phase and are recorded in narrow local time sectors. An important outcome of these results is that space weather benchmarks should be based on local records instead of the commonly used global indices. This action improves two important aspects of space weather: the assessment of historical extreme events and that of the needs of users.