scholarly journals Extreme Space Weather Events during the First Cycles of Epochs with Decreased Solar Activity

2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (6) ◽  
pp. 801-809
Author(s):  
V. N. Ishkov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Flare Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Geomagnetic Index ◽  
Near Earth Space ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Solar Cyclicity ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Extreme Space Weather Events

Abstract The problem of the distribution of extreme and very strong magnetic storms with intensities (G5, G4) in the first cycles (12 and 24) of epochs of lowered solar activity was considered based on homogeneous series of the geomagnetic index Aa with allowance for the modern scale of the intensity of disturbances in the near-Earth space and the scenario of solar cyclicity. The significant decrease in the number of such events and active solar phenomena in the last cycle may indicate that the sunspot and flare activity in solar cycle 12 was significantly higher than that in cycle 24, but it was significantly lower than in solar cycles of the epoch of increased solar activity.

scholarly journals Prediction of Sunspot and Plage Coverage for Solar Cycle 25

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. L12
Author(s):  
Valentina Penza ◽  
Francesco Berrilli ◽  
Luca Bertello ◽  
Matteo Cantoresi ◽  
Serena Criscuoli
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Odd Cycles

Abstract Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun’s brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most prominently the 11 yr sunspot solar cycle and its modulations. Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms, have long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. These events can significantly impact our advanced technologies and critical infrastructures, making the prediction for the strength of future solar cycles particularly important. Several methods have been proposed to predict the strength of the next solar cycle, cycle 25, with results that are generally not always consistent. Most of these methods are based on the international sunspot number time series, or other indicators of solar activity. We present here a new approach that uses more than 100 yr of measured fractional areas of the visible solar disk covered by sunspots and plages and an empirical relationship for each of these two indices of solar activity in even–odd cycles. We anticipate that cycle 25 will peak in 2024 and will last for about 12 yr, slightly longer than cycle 24. We also found that, in terms of sunspot and plage areas coverage, the amplitude of cycle 25 will be substantially similar or slightly higher than cycle 24.

scholarly journals Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Erik Solheim ◽  
Kjell Stordahl ◽  
Ole Humlum
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Cent Level ◽  
Cycle 24

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of °C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of °C.

scholarly journals Super-active regions in solar cycle 24

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (S320) ◽  
pp. 309-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anqin Chen ◽  
Jingxiu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Flare Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Satisfactory Account ◽  
Current Cycle ◽  
Flare Index ◽  
Cycle 24

AbstractComparing with solar cycles 21-23, the level of solar activity in the current cycle is very low. So far, there have been only five SARs and 45 X class flares. The monthly smoothed total solar irradiance decreased sharply by 0.09% from the maximum of cycle 23 to the minima between cycles 23 and 24. In this contribution, we present new studies on SARs in Cycle 24. The SARs in the current cycle have relatively smaller flare index (Iflare) and composite vector field index (Icom) comparing with the SARs in cycles 22 and 23. There is a clearly linear relationship between Iflare and Icom. The emphasis of this contribution is put on the similarity and different behaviors of vector magnetic fields of the SARs in the current solar cycle and the previous ones. We try to get a satisfactory account for the general characteristics and relatively lower level of solar flare activity in Cycle 24.

scholarly journals LOW-POWER SOLAR FLARES OF OPTICAL AND X-RAY WAVELENGTHS FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21–24

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Borovik ◽  
Anton Zhdanov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Low Power ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Optical Emission ◽  
Flare Activity ◽  
X Rays ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Using Data

Using data obtained in optical and X-ray wavelengths, we have analyzed solar flare activity for cycles 21–24. Over the last three cycles, solar activity is shown to decrease significantly. As compared to solar cycle 21 (the most active over the last 50 years), in cycle 24 2–4-class large optical flares are 4.4 times rarer; 1-class flares, 8.2 times; and S-class small flares, 4.1 times. The number of X-class flares decreased 3.7 times; M-class flares, 3.2 times. This confirms that secular solar activity trends affect peak values of 11-year cycles. It is shown that optical low-power flares can be accompanied by proton fluxes and X-ray bursts of different intensity, including X-class ones. Ranges of small flare emission in soft X-rays largely overlap with emission ranges of flares of high optical classes. We have confirmed that X-ray emission from solar flares appears on average 2 min before the optical emission. The X-ray maximum for small optical flares and 1-class flares occurs approximately 1 min later; for 2–4-class flares, 2 min.

scholarly journals Prediction of solar activity cycles by assimilating sunspot data into a dynamo model

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (S264) ◽  
pp. 202-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina N. Kitiashvili ◽  
Alexander G. Kosovichev
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Magnetic Helicity ◽  
Dynamo Model ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Sunspot Data ◽  
Cycle 24

AbstractSolar activity is a determining factor for space climate of the Solar system. Thus, predicting the magnetic activity of the Sun is very important. However, our incomplete knowledge about the dynamo processes of generation and transport of magnetic fields inside Sun does not allow us to make an accurate forecast. For predicting the solar cycle properties use the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate the sunspot data into a simple dynamo model. This method takes into account uncertainties of both the dynamo model and the observed sunspot number series. The method has been tested by calculating predictions of the past cycles using the observed annual sunspot numbers only until the start of these cycles, and showed a reasonable agreement between the predicted and actual data. After this, we have calculated a prediction for the upcoming solar cycle 24, and found that it will be approximately 30% weaker than the previous one, confirming some previous expectations. In addition, we have investigated the properties of the dynamo model during the solar minima, and their relationship to the strength of the following solar cycles. The results show that prior the weak cycles, 20 and 23, and the upcoming cycle, 24, the vector-potential of the poloidal component of magnetic field and the magnetic helicity substantial decrease. The decrease of the poloidal field corresponds to the well-known correlation between the polar magnetic field strength at the minimum and the sunspot number at the maximum. However, the correlation between the magnetic helicity and the future cycle strength is new, and should be further investigated.

scholarly journals LOW-POWER SOLAR FLARES OF OPTICAL AND X-RAY WAVELENGTHS FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21–24

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Borovik ◽  
Anton Zhdanov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Low Power ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Optical Emission ◽  
Flare Activity ◽  
X Rays ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Using Data

Using data obtained in optical and X-ray wavelengths, we have analyzed solar flare activity for cycles 21–24. Over the last three cycles, solar activity is shown to decrease significantly. As compared to solar cycle 21 (the most active over the last 50 years), in cycle 24 2–4-class large optical flares are 4.4 times rarer; 1-class flares, 8.2 times; and S-class small flares, 4.1 times. The number of X-class flares decreased 3.7 times; M-class flares, 3.2 times. This confirms that secular solar activity trends affect peak values of 11-year cycles. It is shown that optical low-power flares can be accompanied by proton fluxes and X-ray bursts of different intensity, including X-class ones. Ranges of small flare emission in soft X-rays largely overlap with emission ranges of flares of high optical classes. We have confirmed that X-ray emission from solar flares appears on average 2 min before the optical emission. The X-ray maximum for small optical flares and 1-class flares occurs approximately 1 min later; for 2–4-class flares, 2 min.

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

scholarly journals MANIFESTATION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN VARIATIONS OF 577.7 AND 630.0 nm ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS IN SOLAR CYCLE 24

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-85
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Mikhalev
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Atomic Oxygen ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Atmospheric Emissions ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Activity Indices

In the paper, variations of the night emission intensities in the 557.7 and 630 nm atomic oxygen lines [OI] in 2011–2019 have been analyzed. The analysis is based on data from the ISTP SB RAS Geophysical Observatory. The emission intensities are compared with atmospheric, solar, and geophysical parameters. High correlation coefficients between monthly average and annual average 630.0 nm emission intensities and solar activity indices F10.7 have been obtained. This suggests a key role of solar activity in variations of this emission in the period of interest. Variations of the 557.7 nm emission demonstrate to a greater extent the correlations of the stratospheric zonal wind (QBO.U30 index) with quasi-biennial oscillations. The causes of the weak dependence of the 557.7 nm emission intensity on solar activity in solar cycle 24 are discussed.

Seasonal behavior of H component during solar cycle 24

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasmina Bouderba ◽  
Ener Aganou ◽  
Abdenaceur Lemgharbi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Horizontal Component ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Seasonal Behavior ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Earth Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Minimum Solar Activity ◽  
Cycle 24

<p>In this work we will show the behavior of the horizontal component H of the Earth Magnetic Field (EMF) along the seasons during the period of solar cycle 24 lasting from 2009 to 2019. By means of  continuous measurements of geomagnetic components (X, Y) of the EMF, we compute the horizontal component H at the Earth’s surface. The data are recorded with a time resolution of one minute at Tamanrasset observatory in Algeria at the geographical coordinates of 22.79° North and 5.53° East. These data are available from the INTERMAGNET network. We find that the variation in amplitude of the hourly average of H component at low latitude changes from a season to another and it is greater at the maximum solar activity than at the minimum solar activity.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Solar cycle 24, Season, Horizontal component H. </p>

ESTABLISHING SOLAR ACTIVITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21 – 24

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 100-106
Author(s):  
A.K. Singh ◽  
◽  
A. Bhargawa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Lyman Alpha ◽  
Rate Versus ◽  
Alpha Index

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar transients and parameters to establish the recent trends of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number was examined for last four solar cycles. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class and X-class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, Ap index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar three cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Here solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. We have concluded that in every domain solar 24 was weaker to its three predecessors.

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