Regional In-Situ Stress Prediction in Frontier Exploration and Development Areas: Insights from the First-Ever 3D Geomechanical Model of the Arabian Plate

In this paper, we present results from the first-ever 3D geomechanical model that supports pre-drill prediction of regional in-situ stresses throughout the Arabian Plate. The results can be used in various applications in the petroleum industry such as fault slip-tendency analysis, hydraulic fracture stimulation design, wellbore stability analysis and underground carbon storage. The Arabian tectonic plate originated by rifting of NE Africa to form the Red Sea and the Gulfs of Aden and Aqaba. The continental rifting was followed by the formation of collisional zones with eastern Turkey, Eurasia and the Indo-Australian Plate, which resulted in the formation of the Eastern Anatolian fault system, the fold-thrust belts of Zagros and Makran, and the Owen fracture zone. This present-day plate tectonic framework, and the ongoing movement of the Arabian continental lithosphere, exert a first-order control on the of in-situ stresses within its sedimentary basins. Using data from published studies, we developed a 3D finite element of the Arabian lithospheric plate that takes into account interaction between the complex 3D plate geometry and present-day plate boundary velocities, on elastic stress accumulation in the Arabian crust. The model geometry captures the first-order topographic features of the Arabian plate such as the Arabian shield, the Zagros Mountains and sedimentary thickness variations throughout the tectonic plate. The model results provide useful insights into the variations in in-situ stresses in sediments and crystalline basement throughout Arabia. The interaction between forces from different plate boundaries results in a complex transitional stress state (thrust/strike-slip or normal/strike-slip) in the interior regions of the plate such that the regional tectonic stress regime at any point may not be reconciled directly with the anticipated Andersonian stress regimes at the closest plate boundary. In the sedimentary basin east of the Arabian shield, the azimuths of the maximum principal compressive stresses change from ENE in southeast to ~N-S in northern portions of the plate. The shape of the plate boundary, particularly along the collisional boundaries, plays a prominent in controlling both the magnitude and orientations of the principal stresses. In addition, the geometry of the Arabian shield in western KSA and variations in the sedimentary basin thickness, cause significant local stress perturbations over 10 – 100 km length scales in different regions of the plate. The model results can provide quantitative constraints on relative magnitudes of principal stresses and horizontal stress anisotropy, both of which are critical inputs for various subsurface applications such as mechanical earth model (MEM) and subsequently wellbore stability analysis (WSA). The calibrated model results can potentially reduce uncertainties in input stress parameters for MEM and WSA and offer improvements over traditional in-situ stress estimation techniques.

Earthquake in Assam and North Bengal and COVID19 in India

Earthquake in Assam and north Bengal in IndiaOn April 28, 2021, a 6.4 Richter scale earthquake affected the Sonitpur district of Assam, the tremors of which were felt in north Bengal and other parts of North-East India, as reported by the National Centre for Seismology1. Six more tremors followed the first shake 2. There were reports of widespread damage to buildings and other structures from across Assam, mostly in the central and western towns of Tezpur, Nagaon, Guwahati, Mangaldoi, Dhekiajuli, and Morigaon3. Again on May 3rd, 2021, an earthquake was felt in the Sonitpur district of Assam with a 3.7 magnitude on the Richter scale4. Assam disaster management authority reported that 10 people from 4 districts suffered physical injuries since the first attack on April 28, 2021, and some more time will be needed to know about the actual amount of damage that had taken place5. According to the National Centre for Seismology, the area affected by the earthquake is seismically very active and falls in the highest seismic hazard zone where the Indian tectonic plate subducts with the Eurasian plate because of which there are high chances of future quakes as well6.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 2009 AND 2016 REVISIONS BASED ON COORDINATES IN GDM2000

The Geocentric Datum of Malaysia (GDM200) is realised with respect to International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) 2000 at epoch 2nd January 2000. In comparison with the 2000 frame, ITRF2014 has significant improvement in terms of its definition and realisation. Moreover, several great earthquakes that struck the Indonesian region for the past decades have deformed the tectonic plate, resulting in a shifted GDM2000. These earthquakes, followed by post-seismic activities, has caused GDM2000 to become obsolete. Following that, the Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia (DSMM) has taken the initiative to revise the coordinate of Malaysia Real-Time Kinematic Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Network (MyRTKnet) stations in GDM2000 into a new set of coordinates. Therefore, this paper presents an effort to analyse the differences between coordinates in GDM2000 based on 2009 and 2016 revisions. In order to measure the discrepancy, forty-seven (47) MyRTKnet stations in Peninsular Malaysia were chosen to estimate the differences between the two (2) revisions. The coordinates obtained from MyRTKnet stations were then projected into Rectified Skewed Orthomorphic (RSO) coordinate system to compute the differences in horizontal position and ellipsoidal height. The finding showed that the discrepancy ranges from 0.8 to 11.8 cm, with the smallest values at SETI station and the biggest value at KRAI station. Meanwhile, for the differences in ellipsoidal height, LIPI station has the biggest value of 8.1 cm, followed by the smallest value of 0.4 cm at SETI station. In conclusion, as the differences in revision gave impact on the changes of coordinates of MyRTKnet stations in Peninsular Malaysia, the frequent revision of GDM2000 should also consider the latest frame to give better positional accuracy, and a proper datum transformation (ITRF2014 to ITRF2000) need to be implemented for mapping purposes.

Mw 6.4 Petrinja earthquake in Croatia: Main earthquake parameters, impact on buildings and recommendation for their structural strengthening

Strong Mw 6.4 Petrinja earthquake from 29.12.2020. took 7 lives and caused catastrophic damage in the Banovina area. The paper presents and analyses the most important earthquake parameters and highlights their importance in understanding the damage and demolition of buildings, as well as creating an optimal structure for their reconstruction. A contribution is made to the understanding of the complex mechanism of earthquake formation through the analysis of the stress-strain state in a rock mass during tectonic plate conflict. The causes of demolition and damage to buildings are explained by the combination of the properties of their structure, soil and the earthquake itself. Solutions for optimal structure of new buildings, as well as solutions for structural renovation of damaged buildings are proposed and described.

Study of the tectonic structure and modern geodynamics of the nickel-copper-sulfide Kun-Manyo deposit at the stage of its field the development

Currently, the Kun-Manyo nickel-copper-sulfide deposit in the north of the Khabarovsk Krai is being prepared for development, with part of the reserves expected to be mined by underground mining. To justify the rational order of opening and excavation of sub-ore reserves it is necessary to have objective information on rock mass condition, which can be received as a result of complex geodynamic and geomechanical investigations. The established geodynamic position of the deposit, determined by its location at the junction of actively interacting large tectonic elements of the Euro-Asian tectonic plate – the tectonic stress of the North Asian craton and the Amur plate, as well as within the modern Olekmo-Stanovo seismic zone, has allowed the massif of the field area to be classified as tectonically stressed. An analysis of the data of the GPS-observation points on the territory of the Russian part of the Amur tectonic plate, the results of calculations of the vector field of velocities of modern movements of points, made within the framework of the ITRF – 2000 coordinate system, as well as the results of in-situ geomechanical studies of rock massifs of the Amur Plate’s rock-bump hazardous deposits, have made it possible to establish the current tectonic regime of the deposit area – a region of intense modern compression with a predicted intensity of more than 50 MPa. By methods of morphometric analysis and remote sensing, it has been found that the relative relief excesses were significant (700–1000 m), which may lead to an uncompensated horizontal component of geostatic stress. The most extended lineaments of the relief have predominantly southeasterly extension. The identified features of the tectonic structure and regional neotectonics have made it possible to determine the most probable direction and magnitude of the current main horizontal compression, which could be further used in solving various geomechanical problems in the exploitation of the field.

What Is the Impact of Tectonic Plate Movement on Country Size? A Long-Term Forecast

The Earth’s surface is under permanent alteration with the area of some nations growing or shrinking due to natural or man-made processes, for example sea level change. Here, based on the NUVEL 1A model, we forecast (in 10, 25, and 50 years) the changes in area for countries that are located on the border of the major tectonic plates. In the analysis we identify countries that are projected to gain or lose land due to the tectonic plate movement only. Over the next 50 years, the global balance of area gains (0.4 km2) and losses (12.7 km2) is negative. Thus, due to the movements of lithospheric plates, the land surface of the Earth will decrease by 12 km2 in 50 years. Overall, the changes are not that spectacular, as in the case of changes in sea/water levels, but in some smaller countries, projected losses exceed a few thousand square metres a year, e.g., in Nepal the losses exceed 10,000 m2 year−1. Methodologically, this paper finds itself between metric analysis and essay, trying to provoke useful academic discussion and incite educators’ interests to illustrate to students the tectonic movement and its force. Limitations of the used model have been discussed in the methodology section.

Analysis of Tectonic Plate Velocity Variations in the Sunda Strait Based on GPS Time-series Data

Indonesia is an earthquake-prone country located in the junction of four tectonic plates, namely the Indo-Australian, Eurasian, Philippine, and Pacific. The convergent boundary between tectonic plates is also called a subduction zone that can produce great earthquakes in the future. One of the subduction zones in Indonesia is the Sunda Strait subduction zone which predicted can release a M7.8 earthquake. Previous research stated that there is a change in tectonic plate velocity after an earthquake ruptured. It is likely that this could happen in the Sunda Strait area which has experienced several large earthquakes. In this study, we conducted research to find out the information on the tectonic plate velocity changes in the Sunda Strait. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) time-series data provided by Indonesia Geospatial Information Agency (BIG). The time series data is used to calculate the earthquake displacement, the changes in GPS velocity of before and after earthquake, and the changes in velocity of each time interval. Our results show that the horizontal displacement due to the earthquake at all GPS stations ranged from 3.34 mm to 7.36 mm in the north-south direction and -27.45 mm to 0.18 mm in the east-west direction. Furthermore, the result of the changes in GPS velocity before and after an earthquake ranged from 2.25 mm/year to 12.60 mm/year and 1.80 mm/year to 13.35 mm/year. The pattern of change in velocity is likely due to post-seismic deformation from the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake, the 2016 Sumatra earthquake, and also other tectonic factors.

Determination of Motion Parameters of Selected Major Tectonic Plates Based on GNSS Station Positions and Velocities in the ITRF2014

Current knowledge about tectonic plate movement is widely applied in numerous scientific fields; however, questions still remain to be answered. In this study, the focus is on the determination and analysis of the parameters that describe tectonic plate movement, i.e., the position (F and L) of the rotation pole and angular rotation speed (w). The study was based on observational material, namely the positions and velocities of the GNSS stations in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2014 (ITRF2014), and based on these data, the motion parameters of five major tectonic plates were determined. All calculations were performed using software based on a least squares adjustment procedure that was developed by the author. The following results were obtained: for the African plate, Φ = 49.15 ± 0.10°, Λ = −80.82 ± 0.30°, and ω = 0.267 ± 0.001°/Ma; for the Australian plate, Φ = 32.94 ± 0.05°, Λ = 37.70 ± 0.12°, and ω = 0.624 ± 0.001°/Ma; for the South American plate, Φ = –19.03 ± 0.20°, Λ = −119.78 ± 0.39°, and ω = 0.117 ± 0.001°/Ma; for the Pacific plate, Φ = −62.45 ± 0.07°, Λ = 111.01 ± 0.14°, and ω = 0.667 ± 0.001°/Ma; and for the Antarctic plate, Φ = 61.54 ± 0.30°, Λ = −123.01 ± 0.49°, and ω = 0.241 ± 0.003°/Ma. Then, the results were compared with the geological plate motion model NNR-MORVEL56 and the geodetic model ITRF2014 PMM, with good agreement. In the study, a new approach is proposed for determining plate motion parameters, namely the sequential method. This method allows one to optimize the data by determining the minimum number of stations required for a stable solution and by identifying the stations that negatively affect the quality of the solution and increase the formal errors of the determined parameters. It was found that the stability of the solutions of the F, L, and w parameters varied depending on the parameters and the individual tectonic plates.

Global mantle convection models produce transform offsets along divergent plate boundaries

The presence of offsets, appearing at intervals ranging from 10s to 100s of kilometres, is a distinct characteristic of constructive tectonic plate margins. By comparison, boundaries associated with subduction exhibit uninterrupted continuity. Here, we present global mantle convection calculations that result in a mobile lithosphere featuring dynamically derived plate boundaries exhibiting a contrasting superficial structure which distinguishes convergence and divergence. Implementing a yield-stress that governs the viscosity in the lithosphere, spreading boundaries at the top of a vigorously convecting mantle form as divergent linear segments regularly offset by similar length zones that correlate with a large degree of shear but comparatively minimal divergence. Analogous offset segments do not emerge in the boundaries associated with surface convergence. Comparing the similarity in the morphologies of the model plate margins to the Earth’s plate boundaries demonstrates that transform-like offsets are a result of stress induced weakness in the lithosphere owing to passive rupturing.