From apex to shoreline: fluvio-deltaic architecture for the Holocene Rhine–Meuse delta, the Netherlands

Despite extensive research on alluvial architecture, there is still a pressing need for data from modern fluvio-deltaic environments. Previous research in the fluvial-dominated proximal and central Rhine–Meuse delta (the Netherlands) has yielded clear spatial trends in alluvial architecture. In this paper, we include the backwater length to establish architectural trends from apex to shoreline. Channel-belt sand body width / thickness ratios and interconnectedness were determined, and the proportions of fluvial channel-belt deposits, fluvial overbank deposits, organics and intertidal deposits were calculated for the complete fluvio-deltaic wedge based on high-resolution geological cross sections. It was found that the average width / thickness ratio of channel-belt sand bodies in the proximal delta is 5 times higher than in the distal delta. Other down-valley trends include an 80 % decrease in the channel deposit proportion (CDP) and a near-constant proportion of overbank deposits. Additionally, interconnectedness in the proximal delta is 3 times higher than in the distal delta. Based on the Rhine–Meuse dataset, we propose a linear empirical function to model the spatial variability of CDP. It is argued that this relationship is driven by four key factors: channel lateral-migration rate, channel-belt longevity, creation of accommodation space and inherited floodplain width. Additionally, it is established that the sensitivity of CDP to changes in the ratio between channel-belt sand body width and floodplain width (normalized channel-belt sand body width) varies spatially and is greatest in the central and distal delta. Furthermore, the proportion of fluvial channel-belt sands is generally an appropriate proxy for the total sand content of fluvio-deltaic successions, although its suitability as a total sand indicator rapidly fades in the distal delta. Characteristics of the backwater zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta are (1) sand body width / thickness ratios that are lower as a consequence of channel narrowing (not deepening), (2) a rapid increase and then a drop in the organic proportion, (3) an increase in the total sand proportion towards the shoreline, and (4) a drop in the connectedness ratio. For this paper, unique high-resolution quantitative data and spatial trends of the alluvial architecture are presented for an entire delta, providing data that can be used to further improve existing fluvial stratigraphy models.

Accounting for spatial trends in multi-environment diallel analysis in maize breeding

Spatial trends represent an obstacle to genetic evaluation in maize breeding. Spatial analyses can correct spatial trends, which allow for an increase in selective accuracy. The objective of this study was to compare the spatial (SPA) and non-spatial (NSPA) models in diallel multi-environment trial analyses in maize breeding. The trials consisted of 78 inter-populational maize hybrids, tested in four environments (E1, E2, E3, and E4), with three replications, under a randomized complete block design. The SPA models accounted for autocorrelation among rows and columns by the inclusion of first-order autoregressive matrices (AR1 ⊗ AR1). Then, the rows and columns factors were included in the fixed and random parts of the model. Based on the Bayesian information criteria, the SPA models were used to analyze trials E3 and E4, while the NSPA model was used for analyzing trials E1 and E2. In the joint analysis, the compound symmetry structure for the genotypic effects presented the best fit. The likelihood ratio test showed that some effects changed regarding significance when the SPA and NSPA models were used. In addition, the heritability, selective accuracy, and selection gain were higher when the SPA models were used. This indicates the power of the SPA model in dealing with spatial trends. The SPA model exhibits higher reliability values and is recommended to be incorporated in the standard procedure of genetic evaluation in maize breeding. The analyses bring the parents 2, 10 and 12, as potential parents in this microregion.

52 Years of Lassa Fever Outbreaks in Nigeria, 1969–2020: An Epidemiologic Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Trends

ABSTRACT. The year 2020 made 52 years since the first report of Lassa fever (LF) outbreaks from Nigeria, but what progress has been made in its control? We sought to answer this through an epidemiologic analysis of the temporal and spatial trends of the outbreaks from 1969 to 2020. The analysis showed an overall strengthening of the outbreaks, hallmarked by the change from irregular to regular annual and from limited local to nationwide outbreaks, while there was a sharp contrast between the upward trend in case numbers and downward trend in case fatality. Pending the availability of effective vaccines, greater effort is required to reverse the upward trend in case numbers and sustain the downward trend in case fatality. We discuss the factors associated with the observed trends as well as the prerequisites for further improvements.

Time and spatial trends in landing per unit of effort as support to fisheries management in a multi-gear coastal fishery

Landings by the multi-gear coastal fleet operating off the Portuguese continental coast include near 300 species, from which only a few are the object of management plans. In this study, daily landings (kg trip_1) are used, along with an effort indicator, vessel length overall (LoA), to obtain landings per unit of effort (LPUE) as a proxy for the species relative abundance for a total of 48 species. LPUE indices were then used as a response variable in linear models where year (2012-2016), season, region (north and south) and NAO index were included as explanatory variables. Season and region effects were found to significantly affect species abundance for a total of 41 and 40 species respectively, while interannual effects were found to be significant for 19 species, and finally, the NAO index for 3 species. Global LPUE density maps are presented for a number of selected species and a subsample of trips where VMS records were available. For the species analysed, it is proposed that geographic and seasonal changes in LPUE indexes can be used to understand trends in abundance and obtain information that can be used in support of the definition of regional management plans.

Land change-based forest management scenario in the typology of island clusters in Maluku Province, Indonesia

Papilaya PPE, Jaya INS, Rusolono T, Puspaningsih N. 2021. Land change-based forest management scenario in the typology of island clusters in Maluku Province, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 22: 3756-3763. This study aims to describe the development of forest area utilization scenarios with biophysical, social and spatial trend approaches. In this study, spatial trends were identified using forest and land cover maps from 2000 to 2018, and the methods used include change detection, spatial trend and overlay. The study was designed using forest cover scenarios along with spatial trends and social and biophysical approaches. The results of the 5 typologies of island clusters analysis showed that forest degradation has occurred in an area of ± 77102 ha between 2000 and 2018 with an average of 4283.4 ha/year. Furthermore, Total Land Cover Loss at the location of the five island cluster typology for 18 years was found to be ± 422805 Ha with an average of ± 23489.06 ha/year. The land capability was categorized into 3 classes. Therefore, the five spatial trends were known to form in the typology of five island clusters with different directions and magnitudes.