scholarly journals The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3633
Author(s):  
Qin Ji ◽  
Jianping Yang ◽  
Can Wang ◽  
Hongju Chen ◽  
Qingshan He ◽  
...  

As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been warming significantly, and the instability of extreme events related to climate and weather has enhanced exceptionally in recent decades. These changes have posed increasingly severe impacts on the population over the TP. So far, however, the impacts on the population have not been assessed systematically and comprehensively from the perspective of risk. In this paper, the hazard of climate change was assessed from a fresh look, not only considering extreme changes of air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, but also their changes in mean and fluctuation, using daily meteorological data from 1961–2015. The population exposure and vulnerability to climate change were then evaluated using demographic data and considering population scale and structure. Finally, the population risk over the TP to climate change was quantitatively assessed within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results showed that the climate change hazard was mainly at medium and heavy levels, in areas accounting for 64.60% of the total. The population exposure was relatively low; the land area at slight and light levels accounted for 83.94%, but high in the eastern edge area of the TP. The population vulnerability was mostly at medium and heavy levels, and the non-agricultural population rate was the key factor affecting the population vulnerability. Generally, the overall population risk over the TP was not very high: the number of counties with heavy and very heavy risk only accounted for 24.29%, and land area was less than 5%. However, more than 40% of the population was in high-risk areas, located in the eastern edge area of the TP. Population exposure was the decisive factor of the population risk to climate change, and high population exposure might lead to high risk. These findings were potentially valuable to improve cognition of risk, develop proactive risk mitigation strategies, and ensure sustainable development.

2012 ◽  
Vol 58 (211) ◽  
pp. 879-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baotian Pan ◽  
Bo Cao ◽  
Jie Wang ◽  
Guoliang Zhang ◽  
Chen Zhang ◽  
...  

AbstractGlobal warming is causing widespread glacier retreat, with small glaciers disappearing. We investigate changes in glaciers over the western Lenglongling mountains, located in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Glacier extent over the western Lenglongling mountains is estimated by comparing digitized glacier outlines obtained from aerial photographs and satellite imagery. These results suggest that all 179 glaciers in the western Lenglongling mountains shrunk between 1972 and 2007. The total area loss was ~24.4 km2, accounting for ~28.3% (0.81% a-1) of the glacierized area in 1972. The average area retreat rates differ over different time intervals: they are approximately 0.68, 0.90, 0.77 and 0.56 km2 a-1 over the periods 1972-95,1995-99,1999-2002 and 2002-07, respectively. Based on analysis of meteorological data, glacier shrinkage in the study area can probably be attributed to the increase in air temperature. Furthermore, the smaller glaciers display a higher shrinkage rate than larger glaciers, and glaciers on southwest-facing slopes appear to retreat faster than those on northeast- facing slopes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 8164
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Jianzhong Yan ◽  
Xian Cheng ◽  
Yi Yu

Farmers are among the most vulnerable groups that need to adapt to climate change. Correct perception is a prerequisite for farmers to adopt adaptation strategies, which plays a crucial guiding role in the development of adaptation plans and the improvement of the security of livelihoods. This study aimed to compare farmers’ perceptions of temperature and precipitation change with meteorological data in two regions of the Tibetan Plateau, analyzed how irrigation affects farmers’ perceptions. Data were obtained from local meteorological stations and household questionnaires (N = 1005). The study found that, since 1987, the climate warming trend was significant (p < 0.01), and the temperature increase was faster in winter. Precipitation had no significant change trend, but the seasonal variations indicated that the precipitation concentration period moved forward in the Pumqu River Basin and was delayed a month in the Yellow River-Huangshui River valley. The farmers’ perception of temperature change was consistent with meteorological data, but there was an obvious difference in precipitation perception between the two regions. We noticed that irrigation facilities played a mediating role on precipitation perception and farmers having access to irrigation facilities were more likely to perceive increased precipitation. Finally, this study suggested that meteorological data and farmers’ perceptions should be integrated when developing policies, rather than just considering actual climate trends. Simultaneously, while strengthening irrigation investment, the government should also pay attention to publicizing the consequences of climate change and improving farmers’ abilities of risk perception.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1962
Author(s):  
Zhilong Zhao ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Zengzeng Hu ◽  
Xuanhua Nie

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.


2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 3725-3742
Author(s):  
Jie Peng ◽  
Chaoyang Wu ◽  
Xiaoyue Wang ◽  
Linlin Lu

PLoS ONE ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. e49230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiying Yu ◽  
Jianchu Xu ◽  
Erick Okuto ◽  
Eike Luedeling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengcheng Ye ◽  
Yibo Yang ◽  
Xiaomin Fang ◽  
Weilin Zhang ◽  
Chunhui Song ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Global cooling, the early uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, and the retreat of the Paratethys are three main factors that regulate long-term climate change in the Asian interior during the Cenozoic. However, the debated elevation history of the Tibetan Plateau and the overlapping climate effects of the Tibetan Plateau uplift and Paratethys retreat makes it difficult to assess the driving mechanism on regional climate change in a particular period. Some recent progress suggests that precisely dated Paratethys transgression/regression cycles appear to have fluctuated over broad regions with low relief in the northern Tibetan Plateau in the middle Eocene&amp;#8211;early Oligocene, when the global climate was characterized by generally continuous cooling followed by the rapid Eocene&amp;#8211;Oligocene climate transition (EOT). Therefore, a middle Eocene&amp;#8211;early Oligocene record from the Asian interior with unambiguous paleoclimatic implications offers an opportunity to distinguish between the climatic effects of the Paratethys retreat and those of global cooling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we present a complete paleolake salinity record from middle Eocene to early Miocene (~42-29 Ma) in the Qaidam Basin using detailed clay boron content and clay mineralogical investigations. Two independent paleosalimeters, equivalent boron and Couch&amp;#8217;s salinity, collectively present a three-staged salinity evolution, from an oligohaline&amp;#8211;mesohaline environment in the middle Eocene (42-~34 Ma) to a mesosaline environment in late Eocene-early Oligocene (~34-~29 Ma). This clay boron-derived salinity evolution is further supported by the published chloride-based and ostracod-based paleosalinity estimates in the Qaidam Basin. Our quantitative paleolake reconstruction between ~42 and 29 Ma in the Qaidam Basin resembles the hydroclimate change in the neighboring Xining Basin, of which both present good agreement with changes of marine benthic oxygen isotope compositions. We thus speculated that the secular trend of clay boron-derived paleolake salinity in ~42-29 Ma is primarily controlled by global cooling, which regulates regional climate change by influencing the evaporation capacity in the moisture source of Qaidam Basin. Superimposed on this trend, the Paratethys transgression/regression cycles served as an important factor regulating wet/dry fluctuations in the Asian interior between ~42 and ~34 Ma.&lt;/p&gt;


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