Development of agro-climatic grape yield model for Nashik region, Maharashtra, India

Prediction of the crop yield is need of time according to the change in climate conditions. In the present study, the Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model has been developed with monthly climatic parameters using multi-regression analysis approach. The developed model was statistically tested for its predictive ability. The discrepancy ratio, the standard deviation of discrepancy ratio, mean percentage error and standard deviation of mean percentage error for the model was obtained as 1.03, 0.19, 0.03% and 0.19, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the developed ACGY model using the parametric sensitivity method. In order to know the future grape yield using ACGY model, climate scenarios were generated under Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for three emissions representative concentration pathways as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to the analysis using ACGY model, increasing yield was observed in grape up to year 2050 as compared to current yield.

Development of agro-climatic grape yield model with future prospective

Agriculture sector is most vulnerable to climate change. To predict the crop yield in accordance with the changing climate is a need of hour than choice. To know the climate in advance is crucial for grape growing farmers and grape export agencies for its better planning and security of grape industries from climate change perspective. In the present study, the Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model is developed on monthly scale climatic parameters using correlation, significance and multi-regression analysis approach. The developed model is statistically tested for its predictive ability. The discrepancy ratio, the standard deviation of discrepancy ratio, mean percentage error and standard deviation of mean percentage error for the developed model is obtained as 1.03, 0.19, 0.03% and 0.19 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is carried out for the developed ACGY model using the parametric sensitivity method. In order to know the grape yield for future using developed ACGY model, climate scenarios are generated under Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for three emissions Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Model response variability is carried out to understand the variation of grape yield. It is observed that grape yield is showing adverse variation with the increase in minimum temperature in January and November months, and precipitation in August and November months. Whereas, minimum temperature in April and sum of monthly mean evapotranspiration showing accordance effect on the grape yield. It is recommended the use of ACGY model for grape yield estimations applicable for the present and future climate of the study area based on the predictive capability of developed model.

Evaluation of sediment transport empirical equations: case study of the Euphrates River West Iraq

Sediment transport in rivers is an important and complex process. It is very important to know the nature and quantities of sediments transported in course of rivers to achieve prudent water management. Due to the presence of most of the important projects on or near the banks of the river in the study area, so there is always a fear that these projects will be affected by the processes of erosion, transport, and sedimentation among the decision makers. Therefore, there is a need to develop our knowledge of the suitable equations that can be applied with acceptable accuracy to obtain satisfactory results for monitoring the processes of erosion, sedimentation, and transport that occur in River path to monitor and anticipate the changes taking place in the areas of the riverbanks. This study was carried out to check the reliability of different sediment transport formulas using data collected from the Euphrates River at the thermal power station in Al Anbar province, Iraq. The study also aimed to select the best formula for this site. Hydrological data have been collected. These were used for computing the total sediment load in the river at a specified cross-section using common sediment transport formulas ascribed to Ackers-White, Bagnold, Yang, Colby, Shen and Hung, and Engelund-Hansen. The performance of these formulas was assessed based on the accuracy of the predictions of the observed sediment load within a limited discrepancy ratio. The evaluations showed that the Engelund-Hansen formula represented the best formula for this river reach.

Technical efficiency of smallholder honey farmers in Jimma zone, Ethiopia

This study analyzes technical efficiency and determinants of the efficiency of honey production in the Gomma and Gera districts of the Jimma zone. The data were obtained from 194 randomly selected honey-producing smallholder farmers. A Cobb - Douglas stochastic frontier production analysis with the inefficiency effect model was used to estimate technical efficiency and identify the determinants of efficiency variations among honey farmers. The study showed that several hives and supplementary feeds positively and significantly influenced honey yield. This shows that there is room to increase honey productivity from the current level if farmers can efficiently use these input variables. The result further showed that there were differences in technical efficiency among honey producers in the study area. The discrepancy ratio, γ, which measures the relative deviation of output from the frontier level due to inefficiency, was about 84%. This implies that about 84% of the variation in honey output among the farmers was attributed to technical inefficiency effects. The estimated mean level of technical efficiency of honey producers was about 74%. This reveals that there is a possibility to increase the level of honey output by about 26% through exploiting the existing local practices and technical knowledge of the relatively efficient farmers. The education level of the farmer, landholding, income, extension contact, and training were found to determine technical efficiency significantly. Therefore, the concerned sector should focus on the above variables to enhance the technical efficiency of honey producers in the study area.

Curve fitting the hydrodynamic and dispersion characteristics of pollutant released in an inland water system

The research study was performed by estimating the longitudinal dispersion coefficient for Dor Nwezor section of Bodo-Bonny River and conducting a tracer experiment using the constant distance variable time method. Eleven empirical models for the prediction of longitudinal dispersion coefficients were considered and analyzed using the hydraulic and geometric parameters of the river. The empirical and experimental results were analysed and compared statistically with Deng et al model yielded the most reliable method of predicting the longitudinal coefficient of dispersion of Dor Nwezor section of Bodo-Bonny River with the least root mean square value of 0.1221, mean absolute value of 0.0617 close to zero and discrepancy ratio of -0.2303 that falls within the accepted accuracy range of -0.3 to 0.3.

Prediction of the Suspended Transport Rate of River Reach

A new suspended transport rate equation using field measurements that apply to the Euphrates River’s reach in the upstream direction from the Ramadi barrage in Iraq was developed via multiple linear regression. The governing parameters were carefully chosen based on dimensional analysis and grouped into four parameters: shields, transport, mobility, and particles. The ability of the suspended transport rate equations of Karim-Kennedy and van Rijn were tested. A total of 25 series of field data for which the concentration of suspended load, average flow depth, sediment particle size, flow velocity, and the width of the water surface were applied. A comparison of the suspended transfer rates in the river reach and the calculated transport rates in the modified equation showed good coincidence. The evaluation results showed that the new equation performed better than the three equations used. The performance of the new equation was determined utilizing three statistical criteria (the coefficient of determination, discrepancy ratio and relative error). The computed suspended transport rates were found within a discrepancy ratio of 1.02 for the measured values and a relative error of 13.4%. The performance of the Van Rijn formula performed better, with a discrepancy ratio of 1.26 for the measured values and a relative error 39%, than the other two equations. The percentage of data that ranged between 0.5–2.0 of the discrepancy ratio varied between 72–100% for the three equations and the new equation.

ABO blood group discrepancies: Study of prevalence and related factors

Background: ABO discrepancy is any deviation from the expected pattern of red cell antigen grouping with serum-grouping or when the forward-grouping results do not correlate with reverse-grouping results. This study was done to determine the incidence and causes of ABO discrepancies and to identify the correct blood group for safe blood transfusions. Methods: This is a retrospective descriptive study. It was done on 9970 samples collected between June 2017and May 2018. All ABO typing records kept at the Grande International Hospital (GIH) blood bank laboratory were reviewed. Results: During the study period, 9970 blood grouping tests were performed. ABO discrepancies occurred in 26 of them. Discrepancies were more prevalent in the age of 20-30 and 30-40 years. Majority were seen in patients with history of pregnancy/miscarriage (30%) and with any Carcinoma (23%). The most common blood group involved was B with 34% frequency. 96% were reverse discrepancy type, 84% with extra antibody which was resolved by incubating the sample at 37°C for 30 minutes signifying most probably A and B subgroups and auto/allo antibodies. Conclusion: This study emphasizes the need of considering ABO discrepancies in blood banks for donors and recipients for safe blood transfusion to avoid any fatal complications. This discrepancy ratio of 1/384 is more than in other studied population of other countries and also higher than ABO mismatched transfusion in standard centers in Nepal. Repeat testing and investigating for ABO subgroups and auto/allo antibodies is important.

Technical Efficiency of Red Pepper Production: The Case of Dalocha, Southern Ethiopia

Increasing the productivity of red pepper is important to meet the need of ever increasing population. However, farmers faced the problem of productivity due to the lack of knowledge on how to maximize level of output at a given level of inputs. The objective of this study was to assess the technical efficiency of red pepper production in Dalocha district of southern Ethiopia. Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier model was used to estimate the technical efficiency and its determinants in red pepper production. Maximum likelihood estimation results showed that increasing input variables (oxen power, seed, labor and fertilizer) would increase yield of red pepper. The discrepancy ratio,γ, which measures the relative deviation of output from the frontier level due to inefficiency was about 85 percent indicating that about 85% of variation in red pepper yield among the farmers was attributed to technical inefficiency effects. The mean technical efficiency of farmers was about 80%. The implication is that, there is an opportunity to improve technical efficiency among farmers on average by 20% through efficient use of inputs. Thus, it is possible to improve technical efficiency through utilizing available inputs wisely.

Streambank Erosion Prediction for Natural Channel using Artificial Neural Network Autoregressive Exogenous (ANNARX) Model

This study aims to develop a streambank erosion prediction model using Artificial Neural Network Autoregressive Exogenous (ANNARX) for natural channels. ANNARX is one type of ANN models and it is a supervised network that trains spasmodic data sets. Field data of 494 data extracted from two (2) rivers in Selangor, namely Sg. Bernam and Sg. Lui were used in the training and testing phases. Total of eleven (11) independent variables are used as input variables in the input layer and the ratio between erosion rates, ? to the near-bank velocity, Ub as the output variable. The functional relationships were derived using Buckingham Pi Theorem in the dimensional analysis. A supervised learning technique was employed and the target output is streambank erosion rates, ?b. The established models were validated to assess their performances in predicting the rates of streambank erosion using 176 data. Validation of the newly developed streambank erosion rates equation has been conducted using data obtained from this study. The performance of the derived model was tested using discrepancy ratio and graphical analysis. Discrepancy ratio (DR) is the ratio of predicted values to the measured values and these values are deemed accurate if the data lie between 0.5 to 2.0 limit. Total of 8 models have been developed in the predictive model. Analysis confirmed that models developed using ANNARX are capable to achieve coefficient correlations (r-squared) values above 0.9 and successfully predict the measured data at accuracy above 90%.

Peran Pembiayaan Produktif BMT Pahlawan Dalam Peningkatan Kesejahteraan Anggota

The purpose of this research is to assess the role played by Baitul Maal Wattamwil (BMT) in increasing welfare of its member. This research adopts a quantitative approach through empirical analysis using Pahlawan Baitul Maal Wattamwil (BMT) located in Tulungagung as the subject of research.Several tools of analysis used in this research are: The Headcount Ratio, The Poverty Discrepancy Ratio, The Income Discrepancy Ratio, The Fooster, Greer and Thorbeck (FGT) index and the Threshold of Trade.