Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series

Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the outbreaks of infectious diseases, show that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times. We study the most recent data on monthly birth trends to analyse the initial fertility responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research, based on new Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations (STFF) data series (https://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/stff.php), embedded in the Human Fertility Database (HFD), shows the initial signs of the expected “birth recession”. Monthly number of births in many countries fell sharply between October 2020 and the most recent month observed, often bringing about a clear reversal of the previous trend. Across 17 countries with lower fluctuations in births, the number of births fell on average by 5.1% in November 2020, 6.5% in December 2020 and 8.9% in January 2021 when compared with the same month of the previous year. Spain sustained the sharpest drop in the number of births among the analysed countries, with the number of births plummeting by 20% in December 2020 and January 2021. The combined effect of rising mortality and falling birth rates is disrupting the balance of births and deaths in many countries, pushing natural population increase to record low levels in 2020 and 2021.

Agrotechnical Prerequisites of the Stolypin Agrarian Reform

The present research featured the agrotechnical prerequisites of the agrarian reform introduced by P. A. Stolypin. The article focuses on the agrotechnical crisis in the rural Russian in the post-reform period. However, the complex and debatable matter of the effect of the community on the crisis was beyond the scope of the study. The author believes that the crisis of the three-field system was connected with the natural population increase and the agricultural overpopulation. The paper describes the methods used by Russian farmers to deal with the lack or agricultural lands and reveals their extensive nature. The author summarized and analyzed options for overcoming the agrotechnical crisis proposed by various state, political, and public figures in the late XIX century. A radical modernization of the Russian village was necessary to overcome the agrotechnical crisis and move on to intensive production forms, and the state policy should have become the instrument of that modernization. The agrarian reform conducted by P. A. Stolypin proved to have some agrotechnical prerequisites.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALIYSIS OF PERTUSSIS MORBIDITY IN UKRAINE

The aim: To improve epidemiological monitoring of pertussis by analyzing the disease morbidity during 1995-2017 in Ukraine, to make a prognosis. Materials and methods: Analysis of the pertussis morbidity during 1995-2017 using the data of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The cyclicity was determined by Fourier spectral analysis. The models of prognosis were constructed using polyharmonic regression and an exponential smoothing algorithm. Cartographic analysis and integrated indicators (multiyear index of the prevalence rate, mean square deviation, mean the multiyear pace of the gain in the prevalence rate) were used to determine the areas of risk. Summarized data were used to calculate the generalized coefficient. Results: The pertussis morbidity cycle has 5 years intervals in Ukraine. The prognosis is for increasing the pertussis morbidity from 4.91-5.54 to 5.48-7.06 per 100.000 people. The generalized coefficient was significantly higher in western part (83.3%) than in central (50.0%) and eastern (16.6%) parts. The study showed that population reproduction rates, natural population increase, and the proportion of people against vaccination were higher in the western part than in other parts of the country. Conclusions: The pertussis cyclicity depends on the internal mechanisms of interaction in the ecological system. There is a prognosis of worsening the epidemic situation of pertussis spreading. The risk area is the western part of Ukraine, which is characterized by active demographic processes and a greater number of people who are negative about vaccination.

Differences in the Quantitative Demographic Potential—A Comparative Study of Polish–German and Polish–Lithuanian Transborder Regions

Demographic potential is a particularly important consideration in border areas that are peripheral regions of a country. The aim of this study was to identify differences in the quantitative demographic potential of Polish–German and Polish–Lithuanian transborder regions, as well as the extent to which natural population increase and net migration influence the demographic potential of border regions. An essential element of the research was the analysis of the importance of borders on shaping the quantitative demographic potential. The study relied on the zeroed unitarization method and the method proposed by Webb. The study revealed considerable spatial variation in the quantitative demographic potential of the analyzed regions at LAU 1 (Local Administrative Units) on the background of NUTS 0 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and NUTS 2. The highest values were noted in urban units, which accounted for 11.0% of all evaluated units. The areas characterized by the lowest demographic potential represented 16.5% of the total number of the analyzed units, which should be regarded as a positive outcome. Most of these border regions were situated in Germany and Lithuania. Demographic potential is an important determinant of social and economic growth; therefore, the results of this study can be used to diagnose problems in border regions and implement the required regional policies.

ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN PERM KRAI

Aim. To estimate the dynamics of the main demographic indices (population, gender and age composition of population, number of born and dead, natural population increase (loss), migration growth of population) in Perm and Perm Krai (PK) over the period of 1990-2016. Materials and methods. The data, presented by the department of population census and demographic statistics of Territorial Board of the Federal Service for State Statistics in PK (Permstat) were analyzed. Results. In Perm Krai - in 2013 and in Perm - in 2012, there was registered increase in the population, confirming the end of depopulation period, observed since the nineties of the XX century. The analyzed period is characterized by growth in birth rate and fall in death rate in Perm and Perm Krai. However, the natural population increase remains insignificant. The detailed characteristic of gender and age structure is presented in the paper; it permits to assess the reproductive potential of the region. Conclusions. The detected tendencies make it possible to determine the strategic directions for improvement of medicodemographic situation in Perm Krai.

Fate of the other redcoat: remnants of colonial British foxes in the eastern United States

Red foxes were absent or rare in the southeastern United States until the late 1800s. Their origins potentially include natural population increase/expansion, translocations from Europe, and, eventually, 20th century fur farming. Previous studies have found no European haplotypes in North America, but few samples were sourced from the Atlantic coastal plain, closer to the source of putative introductions. Through analysis of mitochondrial DNA in 584 red foxes from this region, we identified indigenous haplotypes in ≥ 35% of foxes, 1 of 2 European haplotypes in 17% of foxes and fur farm haplotypes in ≥ 13% of foxes; another 35% of foxes had haplotypes potentially indigenous or native. In contrast, only 3 of 135 (2%) male foxes carried a single European Y chromosome haplotype. Most European and fur farm haplotypes were found near the densely human-populated coastal plain and Hudson River lowlands; most red foxes of the Appalachians and Piedmont had native eastern haplotypes. Our findings suggest that the more remote, upland populations primarily reflect indigenous red fox matrilines, whereas urban-associated populations in and around the mid-Atlantic coastal plain and Hudson lowlands reflect an admixture of native and nonnative maternal sources. Autosomal markers are needed to further elucidate the extent of European and fur farm introgression in the Appalachians and further west.