Fitting limit lines (envelope curves) to spreads of geoenvironmental data

Geoscientists frequently are interested in defining the overall trend in x- y data clouds using techniques such as least-squares regression. Yet often the sample data exhibits considerable spread of y-values for given x-values, which is itself of interest. In some cases, the data may exhibit a distinct visual upper (or lower) ‘limit’ to a broad spread of y-values for a given x-value, defined by a marked reduction in concentration of y-values. As a function of x-value, the locus of this ‘limit’ defines a ‘limit line’, with no (or few) points lying above (or below) it. Despite numerous examples of such situations in geoscience, there has been little consideration within the general geoenvironmental literature of methods used to define limit lines (sometimes termed ‘envelope curves’ when they enclose all data of interest). In this work, methods to fit limit lines are reviewed. Many commonly applied methods are ad-hoc and statistically not well founded, often because the data sample available is small and noisy. Other methods are considered which correspond to specific statistical models offering more objective and reproducible estimation. The strengths and weaknesses of methods are considered by application to real geoscience data sets. Wider adoption of statistical models would enhance confidence in the utility of fitted limits and promote statistical developments in limit fitting methodologies which are likely to be transformative in the interpretation of limits. Supplements, a spreadsheet and references to software are provided for ready application by geoscientists.

ESTIMATION OF GROSS-STRUCTURE PARAMETERS OF GIANT DIPOLE RESONANCE: 1. A METHOD

Available data on photonuclear cross-sections, both measured experimentally and obtained on the basis of theoretical models, are characterized sometimes by a considerable spread. In work, a simple method for the estimation of width (FWHM) and maximum (σmax) of excitation function of a reaction with dominant giant dipole resonance, is given. An analytical model is developed for the description of isotope production in an X-ray beam. It is shown, that the established yield of the reaction in a thin target, overlapping completely the beam with known end-point photon energy makes it possible to estimate the σmax and FWHM values. The possibilities of new approach are demonstrated by a numerical experiment on the reference reactions.

Characteristics choice of steel grade 08 for sheet stamping

The peculiarities of the choice of steel grade 08 for the further sheet stamping are considered. It is emphasized that in the computations of engineering processes of sheet stamping it is necessary to take into account the fluctuations of steel stress-strain properties. It is shown that because of a considerable spread of stress-strain properties it is necessary to take into account possible fluctuations of a stamping force and maximum allowable stresses and deformations on the parameters of the engineering process.

Effect of Size Polydispersity on the Pitch of Nanorod Cholesterics

Many nanoparticle-based chiral liquid crystals are composed of polydisperse rod-shaped particles with considerable spread in size or shape, affecting the mesoscale chiral properties in, as yet, unknown ways. Using an algebraic interpretation of Onsager-Straley theory for twisted nematics, we investigate the role of length polydispersity on the pitch of nanorod-based cholesterics with a continuous length polydispersity, and find that polydispersity enhances the twist elastic modulus, K 2 , of the cholesteric material without affecting the effective helical amplitude, K t . In addition, for the infinitely large average aspect ratios considered here, the dependence of the pitch on the overall rod concentration is completely unaffected by polydispersity. For a given concentration, the increase in twist elastic modulus (and reduction of the helical twist) may be up to 50% for strong size polydispersity, irrespective of the shape of the unimodal length distribution. We also demonstrate that the twist reduction is reinforced in bimodal distributions, obtained by doping a polydisperse cholesteric with very long rods. Finally, we identify a subtle, non-monotonic change of the pitch across the isotropic-cholesteric biphasic region.

Comparison of equatorial wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in reanalyses

Equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in recent reanalyses for the period of 1981–2010 are compared in terms of spectral characteristics, spatial structures, long-term variations and their forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation. For both wave types, the spectral distributions are broadly similar among most of the reanalyses, while the peak amplitudes exhibit considerable spread. The longitudinal distributions and spatial patterns of wave perturbations show reasonable agreement between the reanalyses. A few exceptions to the similarity of the spectral shapes and spatial structures among them are also noted. While the interannual variations of wave activity appear to be coherent for both the Kelvin and MRG waves, there is substantial variability in long-term trends among the reanalyses. Most of the reanalyses which assimilate satellite data exhibit large increasing trends in wave variance (~ 15–50 % increase in the 30 years at 100–10 hPa), whereas one reanalysis (JRA-55C) produced without satellite data does not. Several discontinuities are found around 1998 in the time series of the Kelvin and MRG wave variances, which manifest in different ways depending on the reanalysis, and are indicative of impacts of the transition of satellite measurements during that year. The equatorial wave forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation, estimated by the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence, occurs in similar phase-speed ranges among the reanalyses, while the forcing magnitudes show considerable spread. The forcing maxima of the Kelvin waves exhibit slightly different altitudes between the reanalyses (by ~ 3 km at around 15 hPa). In addition, at around 20 hPa, a wave signal which appears only in easterly mean winds with westward phase speeds is found and discussed.

The Relationships Between Time in Range, Hyperglycemia Metrics, and HbA1c

Background: As the use of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) increases, there is a need to better understand key metrics of time in range 70-180 mg/dL (TIR70-180) and hyperglycemia and how they relate to hemoglobin A1c (A1C). Methods: Analyses were conducted utilizing datasets from four randomized trials encompassing 545 adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) who had central-laboratory measurements of A1C. CGM metrics were calculated and compared with each other and A1C cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Results: Correlations among CGM metrics (TIR70-180, time >180 mg/dL, time >250 mg/dL, mean glucose, area under the curve above 180 mg/dL, high blood glucose index, and time in range 70-140 mg/dL) were typically 0.90 or greater. Correlations of each metric with A1C were lower (absolute values 0.66-0.71 at baseline and 0.73-0.78 at month 6). For a given TIR70-180 percentage, there was a wide range of possible A1C levels that could be associated with that TIR70-180 level. On average, a TIR70-180 of 70% and 50% corresponded with an A1C of approximately 7% and 8%, respectively. There also was considerable spread of change in A1C for a given change in TIR70-180, and vice versa. An increase in TIR70-180 of 10% (2.4 hours per day) corresponded to a decrease in A1C of 0.6%, on average. Conclusions: In T1D, CGM measures reflecting hyperglycemia (including TIR and mean glucose) are highly correlated with each other but only moderately correlated with A1C. For a given TIR or change in TIR there is a wide range of possible corresponding A1C values.

Kebab: can the traditional cooking process sanitize a natural contamination by Listeria monocytogenes?

Over the last few years a considerable spread of ethnic foods was observed in Italy. Among them is the Döner kebab. During 2014-2015, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of traditional cooking process, raw product (defrosted), sliced cooked portions cut through electric knife and assembled sandwich were officially sampled in kebab houses and in a local industrial kebab producer in Reggio Emilia (a province in Italy). Microbiological researches for safety and hygienic microbiological indicators were carried out (research of Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, Campylobacter and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli; enumeration mesophilic aerobic bacteria, lactic acid bacteria, sulfite-reducing bacteria growing under anaerobic conditions, yeasts and molds). Between the raw and the cooked product an average of 3 log reduction in mesophilic aerobic bacteria counts was observed. In two out of three kebab houses sampled, which were supplied by the same local industrial producer, the presence of L. monocytogenes was detected. During the official inspection carried out at the production plant a contamination of L. monocytogenes was assessed in both ambient and instruments. Furthermore, 3 lots of products were analyzed and all were found to be contaminated by L. monocytogenes (always above 100 CFU/g). In order to verify the capability of the traditional cooking process to reduce the risk of contamination at an acceptable level, a batch of naturally contaminated kebab (4.5 log CFU/g) was cooked and sliced simulating a day work activity in a kebab shop. The product was then sampled during preparation and enumeration of L. monocytogenes was obtained. After an hour of cooking, the residual contamination was 1.8 log CFU/g, after two hours and a half L. monocytogenes was no longer detectable in the product, but half an hour later it was again detectable in 25g. At the end of the experiment, the contamination grown up to the same level enumerated after an hour of cooking (1.8 log CFU/g). Considering the microbiological results, traditional cooking obtained a rate of -2.40 log CFU/gh-1, a D=26 min that corresponds to a temperature of maximum 60°C (z=6). In conclusion, our experiment demonstrates the traditional kebab cooking process could not always guarantee a complete product decontamination.

Spotlight on measles 2010: Measles outbreak in Ireland 2009-2010

Measles cases are increasing in Ireland, with 320 cases notified since August 2009. Nearly two-thirds of these cases (n=206) were unvaccinated. In the early stages of the outbreak a substantial number of cases were linked to the Traveller community with some cases also reported among the Roma community, other citizens from eastern Europe and children whose parents objected to vaccination. By February 2010, there had been considerable spread to the general population.

Fault growth and coalescence: insights from numerical modelling and sandbox experiments

ABSTRACT Displacement of strata varies along the strike of faults. This has important implications for the hydrocarbon industry, since for example this affects the occurrence and distribution of fractures along faults in a reservoir and can influence the sealing capacity of faults. As faults grow, neighbouring faults will interact with each other and eventually connect or coalesce. Geometrical fault growth models for coalescence are used to explain a large part of the observed spread of one order of magnitude in Length and Maximum Throw in natural examples of fault populations. Numerical modelling indicates that coalesced (merged) faults tend to return to their steady state growth evolution by accumulating displacement more rapidly than increasing in length, if no further coalescence occurs. Therefore, repetitive coalescence leaves faults “under-displaced” and results in a considerable spread in Length and Maximum Throw. To confirm and support these observations, a series of sandbox experiments was performed, which help improve our understanding of fault growth processes. The fault geometries observed in these models reflect geometries in natural examples, for example in the Natih Formation of Al Jabal al Akhdar in Oman. With increasing strain, repetitive coalescence takes place at all scales. After linkage, a new, coalesced fault behaves as a single, linked segment and accumulates more displacement than increasing length during an increment of strain. The slope of the best fit line of Length vs. Maximum Throw data for the fault population, in double logarithmic space, steepens with increasing strain and stabilises at about one.

Heat Transfer at Supercritical Pressures and the Onset of Deterioration

The comparison of the data on heat transfer at supercritical pressures (SCP) demonstrates that they have a considerable spread, which shows a complex nature of the process and a probable inaccuracy in the methods of data processing caused by a sharp change in thermophysical properties near the pseudocritical point. The recent experimental data at SCP for upward flow of water are compared with some correlations applicable to engineering analysis. The correlations for the onset of heat transfer deterioration against the experimental data were analyzed. The heat transfer deterioration in this data was far from test section inlet The generalization of data on the onset of heat transfer deterioration for various coolants (water, CO2, R12) was proposed.