The Static Risk Offender Needs Guide - Revised (STRONG-R)

2017 ◽  
pp. 199-228
Author(s):  
Zachary Hamilton ◽  
Xiaohan Mei ◽  
Douglas Routh
Keyword(s):  
Static Risk

Convergent and Predictive Associations of Three Measures of Pedophilic Interest

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107906322096804
Author(s):  
Ian V. McPhail ◽  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
Terry P. Nicholaichuk ◽  
Andy Haynes
Keyword(s):  
Test Scores ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Sexual Deviance ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Violence Reduction ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Moderate Relationship ◽  
Risk Scale ◽  
Static Risk

Pedophilic interest is a central risk factor for sexual offending against children. Multiple measures exist to assess pedophilic interest, and the present study aims to provide validity evidence for three of these measures in a sample of men convicted of sexual offenses. The association between a phallometric test for pedophilic interest, the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interest (SSPI), and the sexual deviance factor of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense (VRS-SO) version was examined in a sample of 261 men who participated in sexual violence reduction services. The association between these measures and sexual recidivism, both as sole predictors and while controlling for static risk, was also assessed. The second aim of the study was to examine the validity of different methods for modeling the distribution of pedophilic interests, using phallometric test scores, based on the findings in recent taxometric research. The measures generally showed a positive and moderate relationship with each other and predicted sexual recidivism. However, the SSPI did not significantly predict sexual recidivism, and when controlling for static risk, only the VRS-SO Sexual Deviance factor significantly predicted this outcome. Modeling phallometric test scores continuously and trichotomously produced significant associations with sexual recidivism; however, only a trichotomous model with two levels remained predictive after controlling for static risk. The results are broadly supportive of measures of pedophilic interest and underscore the importance of appropriately modeling the latent structure of pedophilic interest.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Wang ◽  
Ge ◽  
Wei ◽  
Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Time Factors ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Operation Period ◽  
Static Risk

Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.

Where Should We Intervene?

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. KARL HANSON ◽  
ANDREW J. R. HARRIS
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Recall Bias ◽  
Subjective Distress ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Retrospective Recall ◽  
Static Risk

Effective intervention with sexual offenders requires the targeting of appropriate risk factors. In this study, information on dynamic (changeable) risk factors was collected through interviews with community supervision officers and file reviews of 208 sexual offense recidivists and 201 nonrecidivists. The recidivists were generally considered to have poor social supports, attitudes tolerant of sexual assault, antisocial lifestyles, poor self-management strategies, and difficulties cooperating with supervision. The overall mood of the recidivists and nonrecidivists was similar, but the recidivists showed increased anger and subjective distress just before reoffending. The dynamic risk factors reported by the officers continued to be strongly associated with recidivism, even after controlling for preexisting differences in static risk factors. The factors identified in the interview data were reflected (to a lesser extent) in the officers' contemporaneous case notes, which suggests that the interview findings cannot be completely attributed to retrospective recall bias.

The Comprehensive Narrative-Crisis Model of Suicide

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Briggs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Suicidal Behavior ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Emotional State ◽  
Life Story ◽  
Affective Dysregulation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Suicidal Crisis ◽  
Static Risk ◽  
Over Time

The narrative crisis model of suicide posits that individuals attempt suicide when they experience a distinct emotional state termed the suicide crisis syndrome. This chapter describes the model, which has three components: trait vulnerability, suicidal narrative, and the suicidal crisis syndrome. Trait vulnerability includes all static risk factors, which are relatively stable over time and distal to acute suicidal behavior. Suicidal narrative describes a suicidal person’s perception of his or her life story in which the past has led to an intolerable present and a future that is unimaginable. The suicidal crisis syndrome (SCS) is a distinct emotional state characterized by entrapment, affective dysregulation, and loss of cognitive control. The result is the suicidal act, brought on by an emotional urge to end the intolerable mental pain of SCS. Imminent suicide risk is primarily determined by SCS intensity, to which both trait vulnerability and the suicidal narrative also contribute independently.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document