Modelling the impact of a time‐varying wave angle on the nonlinear evolution of sand bars in the surf zone

Regional inequalities are a major concern for governments and policymakers. There is no doubt that tourism impacts the reduction of inequalities, but this impact is not entirely clear. We consider this ambiguity to be related to both the level of study and type of accommodation. In the present study, we examine the inequality level measured by the Gini coefficient in 108 municipalities of the peripheral region of northeastern Poland from 2009 to 2018. We employ a directional spillover index to measure the impact of two accommodation types on tax incomes per capita. The empirical results indicate that collective accommodation-based tourism only reduced inequality during the financial crisis, while individual accommodation-based tourism started to reduce inequality from 2014, when Russian sanctions hit local agriculture and businesses. These results indicate that the role of accommodation types is time-varying and evident in measuring economic distress during and after shocks.

Download Full-text

Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science ◽

10.1177/2399808321998703 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 239980832199870

Author(s):

Sheree A Pagsuyoin ◽

Joost R Santos

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Large Scale ◽

Urban Region ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Time Varying ◽

National Capital Region ◽

Economic Sectors ◽

The Impact

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

Download Full-text

The Impact of Participation in PPP Projects on Total Factor Productivity of Listed Companies in China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13147603 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 7603

Author(s):

Xiangdong Liu ◽

Guangxi Cao

Keyword(s):

Total Factor Productivity ◽

High Speed ◽

Operation Mode ◽

Listed Companies ◽

Financing Constraints ◽

Eastern Region ◽

Time Varying ◽

Factor Productivity ◽

The Impact ◽

China’S Economy

The key to transforming China’s economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development is to improve total factor productivity (TFP). Based on the panel data of China’s listed companies participating in PPP (Public–Private Partnerships) projects from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs the time-varying DID method to test the impact of participation in PPP projects on the company’s TFP empirically, explore the mechanism of the effect of participation in PPP projects on the company’s TFP, and then conduct heterogeneous analysis from four perspectives: region, industry, ownership form, and operation mode. The empirical results show that participation in PPP projects can significantly promote the growth of the company’s TFP, which mainly comes from the promotion of the innovation level of listed companies and the alleviation of financing constraints by participating in PPP projects. In addition, participation in PPP projects has a significant impact on TFP of listed companies in the eastern region, listed companies in the secondary and tertiary industries, state-owned listed companies, and listed companies participating in PPP projects under the BOT mode.

Download Full-text

Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

Tourism Economics ◽

10.1177/13548166211008832 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 135481662110088

Author(s):

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill ◽

John Inekwe ◽

Kris Ivanovski

Keyword(s):

World War Ii ◽

Historical Data ◽

House Prices ◽

Housing Prices ◽

Time Varying ◽

Data Set ◽

Time Series Modelling ◽

The Impact ◽

Tourism Flows ◽

Non Parametric

Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

Download Full-text

Does the Opening of High-Speed Railway Lines Reduce the Carbon Intensity of China’s Resource-Based Cities?

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14154648 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (15) ◽

pp. 4648

Author(s):

Zhipeng Tang ◽

Ziao Mei ◽

Jialing Zou

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

National Average ◽

Carbon Intensity ◽

Time Varying ◽

Low Carbon ◽

High Speed Railway ◽

Different Types ◽

Endogenous Selection ◽

Mode Of Development ◽

The Impact

The carbon intensity of China’s resource-based cities (RBCs) is much higher than the national average due to their relatively intensive mode of development. Low carbon transformation of RBCs is an important way to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon emissions peak in 2030. Based on the panel data from 116 RBCs in China from 2003 to 2018, this study takes the opening of high-speed railway (HSR) lines as a quasi-experiment, using a time-varying difference-in-difference (DID) model to empirically evaluate the impact of an HSR line on reducing the carbon intensity of RBCs. The results show that the opening of an HSR line can reduce the carbon intensity of RBCs, and this was still true after considering the possibility of problems with endogenous selection bias and after applying the relevant robustness tests. The opening of an HSR line is found to have a significant reducing effect on the carbon intensity of different types of RBC, and the decline in the carbon intensity of coal-based cities is found to be the greatest. Promoting migration of RBCs with HSR lines is found to be an effective intermediary way of reducing their carbon intensity.

Download Full-text

The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040449 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 449

Author(s):

Chenlu Tao ◽

Gang Diao ◽

Baodong Cheng

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Structural Changes ◽

Raw Materials ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Control Measures ◽

Var Model ◽

Time Varying ◽

Wood Industry ◽

The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

Download Full-text

The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

Financial Innovation ◽

10.1186/s40854-020-00224-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽

Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽

A. Nazif Çatık

Keyword(s):

Stock Returns ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Structural Break ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Time Varying ◽

Asset Pricing Model ◽

Daily Data ◽

Structural Break Test ◽

The Impact ◽

Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

Download Full-text

Effects of Time-Varying Parent Input on Children’s Language Outcomes Differ for Vocabulary and Syntax

Psychological Science ◽

10.1177/0956797620970559 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095679762097055

Author(s):

Catriona Silvey ◽

Özlem Ece Demir-Lira ◽

Susan Goldin-Meadow ◽

Stephen W. Raudenbush

Keyword(s):

Standardized Tests ◽

Child Outcomes ◽

Time Varying ◽

Syntactic Complexity ◽

Language Outcomes ◽

Optimal Sequence ◽

Linguistic Input ◽

Language Input ◽

The Impact ◽

Over Time

Early linguistic input is a powerful predictor of children’s language outcomes. We investigated two novel questions about this relationship: Does the impact of language input vary over time, and does the impact of time-varying language input on child outcomes differ for vocabulary and for syntax? Using methods from epidemiology to account for baseline and time-varying confounding, we predicted 64 children’s outcomes on standardized tests of vocabulary and syntax in kindergarten from their parents’ vocabulary and syntax input when the children were 14 and 30 months old. For vocabulary, children whose parents provided diverse input earlier as well as later in development were predicted to have the highest outcomes. For syntax, children whose parents’ input substantially increased in syntactic complexity over time were predicted to have the highest outcomes. The optimal sequence of parents’ linguistic input for supporting children’s language acquisition thus varies for vocabulary and for syntax.

Download Full-text