Impact of known local and tropical volcanic eruptions of the past millennium on the WAIS Divide microparticle record

Abstract The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic both have an important influence on global climate, but the correlation between climate variations in these two regions remains unclear. Here we reconstructed and compared the summer temperature anomalies over the past 1,120 yr (900–2019 CE) in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic. The temperature correlation during the past millennium in these two regions has a distinct centennial variation caused by volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the abrupt weak-to-strong transition in the temperature correlation during the sixteenth century could be analogous to this type of transition during the Modern Warm Period. The former was forced by volcanic eruptions, while the latter was controlled by changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that anthropogenic, as opposed to natural, forcing has acted to amplify the teleconnection between the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic during the Modern Warm Period.

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Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2007jcli1884.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 21 (13) ◽

pp. 3134-3148 ◽

Cited By ~ 146

Author(s):

Julien Emile-Geay ◽

Richard Seager ◽

Mark A. Cane ◽

Edward R. Cook ◽

Gerald H. Haug

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Explosive Volcanism ◽

The Past ◽

El Niño Event ◽

Volcanic Forcing ◽

El Niño Events ◽

Past Millennium ◽

El Nino Events

Abstract The controversial claim that El Niño events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Niño likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of about 3.7 W m−2) can shift the likelihood and amplitude of an El Niño event above the level of the model’s internal variability. Explosive volcanism cannot be said to trigger El Niño events per se, but it is found to raise their likelihood by 50% on average, also favoring higher amplitudes. This reconciles, on one hand, the demonstration by Adams et al. of a statistical relationship between explosive volcanism and El Niño and, on the other hand, the ability to predict El Niño events of the last 148 yr without knowledge of volcanic forcing. The authors then focus on the strongest eruption of the millennium (A.D. 1258), and show that it is likely to have favored the occurrence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the midst of prevailing La Niña–like conditions induced by increased solar activity during the well-documented Medieval Climate Anomaly. Compiling paleoclimate data from a wide array of sources, a number of important hydroclimatic consequences for neighboring areas is documented. The authors propose, in particular, that the event briefly interrupted a solar-induced megadrought in the southwestern United States. Most of the time, however, volcanic eruptions are found to be too small to significantly affect ENSO statistics.

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Divergent El Niño responses to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes over the past millennium

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-017-3846-z ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 50 (9-10) ◽

pp. 3799-3812 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Fei Liu ◽

Jinbao Li ◽

Bin Wang ◽

Jian Liu ◽

Tim Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

The Past ◽

Past Millennium

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Global hydroclimatic response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last millennium

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2019145118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 118 (12) ◽

pp. e2019145118

Author(s):

Ernesto Tejedor ◽

Nathan J. Steiger ◽

Jason E. Smerdon ◽

Roberto Serrano-Notivoli ◽

Mathias Vuille

Keyword(s):

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

South American ◽

Last Millennium ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

The Past ◽

Model Response ◽

The Pacific ◽

Dry Conditions ◽

Community Earth System Model ◽

Past Millennium

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can affect the climate of many regions on Earth, yet it is uncertain how the largest eruptions over the past millennium may have altered Earth’s hydroclimate. Here, we analyze the global hydroclimatic response to all the tropical volcanic eruptions over the past millennium that were larger than the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991. Using the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), we find that these large volcanic eruptions tended to produce dry conditions over tropical Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East and wet conditions over much of Oceania and the South American monsoon region. These anomalies are statistically significant, and they persisted for more than a decade in some regions. The persistence of the anomalies is associated with southward shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We compare the PHYDA results with the stand-alone model response of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)-Last Millennium Ensemble. We find that the proxy-constrained PHYDA estimates are larger and more persistent than the responses simulated by CESM. Understanding which of these estimates is more realistic is critical for accurately characterizing the hydroclimate risks of future volcanic eruptions.

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Sediment records of highly variable mercury inputs to mountain lakes in Patagonia during the past millennium

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-9-25885-2009 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 25885-25914 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

S. Ribeiro Guevara ◽

M. Meili ◽

A. Rizzo ◽

R. Daga ◽

M. Arribére

Keyword(s):

Organic Matter ◽

Biogenic Silica ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Native Forest ◽

The Past ◽

Sedimentary Sequences ◽

Southern Volcanic Zone ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Tephra Layers ◽

Past Millennium

Abstract. High Hg levels in the pristine lacustrine ecosystems of the Nahuel Huapi National Park, a protected zone situated in the Andes of Northern Patagonia, Argentina, have initiated further investigations on Hg cycling and source identification. Here we report Hg records in sedimentary sequences aiming at identifying atmospheric sources during the past millennium. In addition to global transport and deposition, a potential atmospheric Hg source to be considered is the local emissions associated with volcanic activity, considering that the Park is situated in the Southern Volcanic Zone. Two sediment cores were extracted from Lake Tonček, a small, high-altitude system reflecting mainly direct inputs associated with atmospheric contributions, and Lake Moreno Oeste, a much larger and deeper lake having an extended watershed covered mostly by native forest. The sedimentary sequences were dated based on both 210Pb and 137Cs profiles. In addition, tephra layers were identified and geochemically characterized for chronological application and to investigate any association of volcanic eruptions with Hg records. Hg concentrations in sediments were measured along with 32 other elements, as well as organic matter, fossil chironomids, and biogenic silica. Observed background Hg concentrations, determined from the sequence domains with lower values, ranged from 50 to 100 ng g−1 DW (dry weight), whereas the surficial layers reached 200 to 500 ng g−1 DW. In addition to this traditional pattern, however, two deep domains in both sequences showed dramatically increased Hg levels reaching 400 to 650 ng g−1 DW; the upper dated to the 18th to 19th centuries, and the lower around the 13th century. These concentrations are not only elevated in the present profiles but also many-fold above the background values determined in other fresh water sediments, as were also the Hg fluxes, reaching 120 to 150 μg m−2 y−1 in Lake Tonček. No correlation was observed between Hg concentrations and the contents of organic matter, fossil chironomids, biogenic silica, or the other elements determined. However, a distinct increase of Hg concentrations was observed immediately above some tephra layers, suggesting a link to volcanic events. Extended fires is another potential atmospheric source to be considered because the earlier Hg peaks coincide with reported charcoal peaks, whereas the upper Hg peaks coincide with evidences of extended forest fires from tree-ring data and historical records.

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Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 97 (5) ◽

pp. 735-754 ◽

Cited By ~ 187

Author(s):

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽

Esther C. Brady ◽

John Fasullo ◽

Alexandra Jahn ◽

Laura Landrum ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Earth System Model ◽

System Model ◽

Earth System ◽

The Past ◽

Community Earth System Model ◽

Past Millennium

Abstract The climate of the past millennium provides a baseline for understanding the background of natural climate variability upon which current anthropogenic changes are superimposed. As this period also contains high data density from proxy sources (e.g., ice cores, stalagmites, corals, tree rings, and sediments), it provides a unique opportunity for understanding both global and regional-scale climate responses to natural forcing. Toward that end, an ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the period 850–2005 (the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble, or CESM-LME) is now available to the community. This ensemble includes simulations forced with the transient evolution of solar intensity, volcanic emissions, greenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use conditions, and orbital parameters, both together and individually. The CESM-LME thus allows for evaluation of the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to changes evident in the paleoclimate data record, as well as providing a longer-term perspective for understanding events in the modern instrumental period. It also constitutes a dynamically consistent framework within which to diagnose mechanisms of regional variability. Results demonstrate an important influence of internal variability on regional responses of the climate system during the past millennium. All the forcings, particularly large volcanic eruptions, are found to be regionally influential during the preindustrial period, while anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol changes dominate the forced variability of the mid- to late twentieth century.

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Sediment records of highly variable mercury inputs to mountain lakes in Patagonia during the past millennium

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-10-3443-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 3443-3453 ◽

Cited By ~ 47

Author(s):

S. Ribeiro Guevara ◽

M. Meili ◽

A. Rizzo ◽

R. Daga ◽

M. Arribére

Keyword(s):

Organic Matter ◽

Biogenic Silica ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Native Forest ◽

The Past ◽

Sedimentary Sequences ◽

Subfossil Chironomids ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Tephra Layers ◽

Past Millennium

Abstract. High Hg levels in the pristine lacustrine ecosystems of the Nahuel Huapi National Park, a protected zone situated in the Andes of Northern Patagonia, Argentina, have initiated further investigations on Hg cycling and source identification. Here we report Hg records in sedimentary sequences to identify atmospheric sources during the past millennium. In addition to global transport and deposition, a potential atmospheric Hg source to be considered is the local emissions associated with volcanic activity, because the Park is situated in the Southern Volcanic Zone. Two sediment cores were extracted from Lake Tonček, a small, high-altitude system reflecting mainly direct inputs associated with atmospheric contributions, and Lake Moreno Oeste, a much larger and deeper lake having an extended watershed covered mostly by native forest. The sedimentary sequences were dated based on both 210Pb and 137Cs profiles. In addition, tephra layers were identified and geochemically characterized for chronological application and to investigate any association of volcanic eruptions with Hg records. Hg concentrations in sediments were measured along with 32 other elements, as well as organic matter, subfossil chironomids, and biogenic silica. Observed background Hg concentrations, determined from the sequence domains with lower values, ranged from 50 to 100 ng g−1 dry weight (DW), whereas the surficial layers reached 200 to 500 ng g−1 DW. In addition to this traditional pattern, however, two deep domains in both sequences showed dramatically increased Hg levels reaching 400 to 650 ng g−1 DW; the upper dated to the 18th to 19th centuries, and the lower around the 13th century. These concentrations are not only elevated in the present profiles but also many-fold above the background values determined in other fresh water sediments, as were also the Hg fluxes, reaching 120 to 150 μg m−2 y−1 in Lake Tonček . No correlation was observed between Hg concentrations and the contents of organic matter, subfossil chironomids, biogenic silica, or the other elements determined. However, distinctly increased Hg concentrations were observed immediately above some tephra layers, suggesting a link to volcanic events. Extended fires might be another potential atmospheric source because the earlier Hg peaks coincide with reported charcoal peaks, whereas the upper Hg peaks coincide with evidences of extended forest fires from tree-ring data and historical records.

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Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00826.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (18) ◽

pp. 6954-6973 ◽

Cited By ~ 93

Author(s):

Andrew P. Schurer ◽

Gabriele C. Hegerl ◽

Michael E. Mann ◽

Simon F. B. Tett ◽

Steven J. Phipps

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Forced Response ◽

Ice Age ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

External Forcing ◽

The Past ◽

Hemispheric Temperature ◽

Wide Range ◽

Past Millennium

Abstract Reconstructions of past climate show notable temperature variability over the past millennium, with relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a relatively cold Little Ice Age (LIA). Multimodel simulations of the past millennium are used together with a wide range of reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric mean annual temperature to separate climate variability from 850 to 1950 CE into components attributable to external forcing and internal climate variability. External forcing is found to contribute significantly to long-term temperature variations irrespective of the proxy reconstruction, particularly from 1400 onward. Over the MCA alone, however, the effect of forcing is only detectable in about half of the reconstructions considered, and the response to forcing in the models cannot explain the warm conditions around 1000 CE seen in some reconstructions. The residual from the detection analysis is used to estimate internal variability independent from climate modeling, and it is found that the recent observed 50- and 100-yr hemispheric temperature trends are substantially larger than any of the internally generated trends even using the large residuals over the MCA. Variations in solar output and explosive volcanism are found to be the main drivers of climate change from 1400 to 1900, but for the first time a significant contribution from greenhouse gas variations to the cold conditions during 1600–1800 is also detected. The proxy reconstructions tend to show a smaller forced response than is simulated by the models. This discrepancy is shown, at least partly, to be likely associated with the difference in the response to large volcanic eruptions between reconstructions and model simulations.

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