Cross-continental hydroclimate proxies: Tree-rings in Central Chile reconstruct historical streamflow in Southeastern South American rivers

Regional teleconnections permit cross-continental modeling of hydroclimate throughout the world. Tree-rings are a good hydroclimatic proxy used to reconstruct drought and streamflow in regions that respond to common global forcings. We used a multi-species dataset of 32 tree-ring width chronologies from Chile and Uruguay as a climate proxy to infer annual streamflow (Q) variability in the Negro River basin, a grassland-dominated watershed of lowland Southeastern South America. A positive linear correlation between tree-ring chronologies from Central Chile and annual Negro River instrumental streamflow from 1957 to 2012 indicated a cross-continental teleconnection between hydroclimate variability in Central Chile and Northeastern Uruguay. This relationship was mediated in part by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereby the El Nino 3.4 Index was positively correlated with regional rainfall, annual tree growth, and Q anomalies. Despite the proximity of Uruguayan tree-ring chronologies to Negro River hydrometric stations, the Chilean tree-ring chronologies best predicted annual streamflow. Thus, using tree-ring data from four long-term moisture-sensitive chronologies of the species Cryptocarya alba in Central Chile (32–34°S), we present the first streamflow reconstruction (1890–2009) in the lower La Plata Basin. The reconstruction supports regional evidence for increasing frequency of extreme flood years over the past century in Uruguay. We demonstrate how climate teleconnections that mediate local hydroclimate variability permit the cross-continental reconstruction of streamflow, filling a major geographical gap in historical proxies for flooding and drought in grassland biomes of the southern hemisphere.

Drought Drives Growth and Mortality Rates in Three Pine Species under Mediterranean Conditions

Drought constrains tree growth in regions with seasonal water deficit where growth decline can lead to tree death. This has been observed in regions such as the western Mediterranean Basin, which is a climate-warming hotspot. However, we lack information on intra- and inter-specific comparisons of growth rates and responses to water shortage in these hotspots, considering tree species with different drought tolerance. We sampled several sites located in north-eastern Spain showing dieback and high mortality rates of three pine species (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus pinaster, Pinus halepensis). We dated death years and reconstructed the basal area increment of coexisting living and recently dead trees using tree ring data. Then, we calculated bootstrapped Pearson correlations between a drought index and growth. Finally, we used linear mixed-effects models to determine differences in growth trends and the response to drought of living and dead trees. Mortality in P. sylvestris and P. pinaster peaked in response to the 2012 and 2017 droughts, respectively, and in sites located near the species’ xeric distribution limits. In P. halepensis, tree deaths occurred most years. Dead trees showed lower growth rates than living trees in five out of six sites. There was a strong growth drop after the 1980s when climate shifted towards warmer and drier conditions. Tree growth responded positively to wet climate conditions, particularly in the case of living trees. Accordingly, growth divergence between living and dead trees during dry periods reflected cumulative drought impacts on trees. If aridification continues, tree drought mortality would increase, particularly in xeric distribution limits of tree species.

Using the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) records as century-long benchmarks for global land-surface models

The search for a long-term benchmark for land-surface models (LSMs) has brought tree-ring data to the attention of the land-surface modelling community, as tree-ring data have recorded growth well before human-induced environmental changes became important. We propose and evaluate an improved conceptual framework of when and how tree-ring data may, despite their sampling biases, be used as century-long hindcasting targets for evaluating LSMs. Four complementary benchmarks – size-related diameter growth, diameter increment of mature trees, diameter increment of young trees, and the response of tree growth to extreme events – were simulated using the ORCHIDEE version r5698 LSM and were verified against observations from 11 sites in the independent, unbiased European biomass network datasets. The potential for big-tree selection bias in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) was investigated by subsampling the 11 sites from European biomass network. We find that in about 95 % of the test cases, using ITRDB data would result in the same conclusions as using the European biomass network when the LSM is benchmarked against the annual radial growth during extreme climate years. The ITRDB data can be used with 70 % confidence when benchmarked against the annual radial growth of mature trees or the size-related trend in annual radial growth. Care should be taken when using the ITRDB data to benchmark the annual radial growth of young trees, as only 50 % of the test cases were consistent with the results from the European biomass network. The proposed maximum tree diameter and annual growth increment benchmarks may enable the use of ITRDB data for large-scale validation of the LSM-simulated response of forest ecosystems to the transition from pre-industrial to present-day environmental conditions over the past century. The results also suggest ways in which tree-ring width observations may be collected and/or reprocessed to provide long-term validation tests for land-surface models.

Long-Term Effects of Climate and Competition on Radial Growth, Recovery, and Resistance in Mongolian Pines

Understanding the response of tree growth and drought vulnerability to climate and competition is critical for managing plantation forests. We analyzed the growth of Mongolian pines in six forests planted by the Three-North Shelter Forest Program with tree-ring data and stand structures. A retroactive reconstruction method was used to depict the growth-competition relationships of Mongolian pines during the growth period and their climatic responses under different competition levels. Drought vulnerability was analyzed by measuring the basal area increment (BAI) of different competition indices (CIs). In young trees, differences in BAIs in stands with different CIs were not statistically significant. After 15–20 years, medium- and high-CI stands had significantly lower tree-ring widths (TWs) and BAIs than the low-CI stands (p < 0.05). The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), precipitation, relative humidity, and vapor pressure deficit were major factors affecting tree growth. On a regional scale, climate outweighed competition in determining radial growth. The relative contribution of climatic factors increased with the gap in SPEI between plantation sites and the native range, while the reverse pattern of the competition-growth relationship was observed. Drought reduced TWs and BAIs at all sites. Stands of different CIs exhibited similar resistance, but, compared with low-CI stands, high- and medium-CI stands had significantly lower recovery, resilience, and relative resilience, indicating they were more susceptible to drought stresses. Modeled CI was significantly negatively related to resistance, resilience, and relative resilience, indicating a density-dependence of tree response to drought. After exposure to multiple sequential drought events, the relative resilience of high-CI stands decreased to almost zero; this failure to fully recover to pre-drought growth rates suggests increased mortality in the future. In contrast, low-CI stands are more likely to survive in hotter, more arid climates. These results provide a better understanding of the roles of competition and climate on the growth of Mongolian pines and offer a new perspective for investigating the density-dependent recovery and resilience of these forests.

CO2, nitrogen deposition and a discontinuous climate response drive water use efficiency in global forests

Reduced stomatal conductance is a common plant response to rising atmospheric CO2 and increases water use efficiency (W). At the leaf-scale, W depends on water and nitrogen availability in addition to atmospheric CO2. In hydroclimate models W is a key driver of rainfall, droughts, and streamflow extremes. We used global climate data to derive Aridity Indices (AI) for forests over the period 1965–2015 and synthesised those with data for nitrogen deposition and W derived from stable isotopes in tree rings. AI and atmospheric CO2 account for most of the variance in W of trees across the globe, while cumulative nitrogen deposition has a significant effect only in regions without strong legacies of atmospheric pollution. The relation of aridity and W displays a clear discontinuity. W and AI are strongly related below a threshold value of AI ≈ 1 but are not related where AI > 1. Tree ring data emphasise that effective demarcation of water-limited from non-water-limited behaviour of stomata is critical to improving hydrological models that operate at regional to global scales.

Supporting Restoration Decisions through Integration of Tree-Ring and Modeling Data: Reconstructing Flow and Salinity in the San Francisco Estuary over the Past Millennium

This work presents updated reconstructions of watershed runoff to San Francisco Estuary from tree-ring data to AD 903, coupled with models relating runoff to freshwater flow to the estuary and salinity intrusion. We characterize pre-development freshwater flow and salinity conditions in the estuary over the past millennium and compare this characterization with contemporary conditions to better understand the magnitude and seasonality of changes over this time. This work shows that the instrumented flow record spans the range of runoff patterns over the past millennium (averaged over 5, 10, 20 and 100 years), and thus serves as a reasonable basis for planning-level evaluations of historical hydrologic conditions in the estuary. Over annual timescales we show that, although median freshwater flow to the estuary has not changed significantly, it has been more variable over the past century compared to pre-development flow conditions. We further show that the contemporary period is generally associated with greater spring salinity intrusion and lesser summer–fall salinity intrusion relative to the pre-development period. Thus, salinity intrusion in summer and fall months was a common occurrence under pre-development conditions and has been moderated in the contemporary period due to the operations of upstream reservoirs, which were designed to hold winter and spring runoff for release in summer and fall. This work also confirms a dramatic decadal-scale hydrologic shift in the watershed from very wet to very dry conditions during the late 19th and early 20th centuries; while not unprecedented, these shifts have been seen only a few times in the past millennium. This shift resulted in an increase in salinity intrusion in the first three decades of the 20th century, as documented through early records. Population growth and extensive watershed modification during this period exacerbated this underlying hydrologic shift. Putting this shift in the context of other anthropogenic drivers is important in understanding the historical response of the estuary and in setting salinity targets for estuarine restoration. By characterizing the long-term behavior of San Francisco Estuary, this work supports decision-making in the State of California related to flow and salinity management for restoration of the estuarine ecosystem.

A triple tree-ring constraint for tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model

Annually resolved tree-ring records extending back to pre-industrial conditions have the potential to constrain the responses of global land surface models at interannual to centennial timescales. Here, we demonstrate a framework to simultaneously constrain the representation of tree growth and physiology in the ORCHIDEE global land surface model using the simulated variability of tree-ring width and carbon (Δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes in six sites in boreal and temperate Europe. We exploit the resulting tree-ring triplet to derive integrative constraints for leaf physiology and growth from well-known mechanistic relationships among the variables. ORCHIDEE simulates Δ13C (r=0.31–0.80) and δ18O (r=0.36–0.74) better than tree-ring width (r<0.55), with an overall skill similar to that of a tree-ring model (MAIDENiso) and another isotope-enabled global vegetation model (LPX-Bern). The comparison with tree-ring data showed that growth variability is not well represented in ORCHIDEE and that the parameterization of leaf-level physiological responses (stomatal control) to drought stress in the temperate region can be constrained using the interannual variability of tree-ring stable isotopes. The representation of carbon storage and remobilization dynamics emerged as a critical process to improve the realism of simulated growth variability, temporal carryover, and recovery of forest ecosystems after climate extremes. Simulated forest gross primary productivity (GPP) correlates with simulated tree-ring Δ13C and δ18O variability, but the origin of the correlations with tree-ring δ18O is not entirely physiological. The integration of tree-ring data and land surface models as demonstrated here should guide model improvements and contribute towards reducing current uncertainties in forest carbon and water cycling.

Supporting Restoration Decisions through Integration of Tree-Ring and Modeling Data: Reconstructing Flow and Salinity in the San Francisco Estuary over the Past Millennium

This work presents updated reconstructions of watershed runoff to San Francisco Estuary from tree-ring data to AD 903, coupled with models relating runoff to freshwater flow to the estuary and salinity intrusion. We characterize pre-development freshwater flow and salinity conditions in the estuary over the past millennium and compare this characterization with contemporary conditions to better understand the magnitude and seasonality of changes over this time. This work shows that the instrumented flow record spans the range of runoff patterns over the past millennium (averaged over five, ten, twenty and one hundred years), and thus serves as a reasonable basis for planning-level evaluations of historical hydrologic conditions in the estuary. Over annual timescales we show that, although median freshwater flow to the estuary has not changed significantly, it has been more variable over the past century compared to pre-development flow conditions. We further show that the contemporary period is generally associated with greater spring salinity intrusion and lesser summer-fall salinity intrusion relative to the pre-development period. Thus, salinity intrusion in summer and fall months was a common occurrence under pre-development conditions and has been moderated in the contemporary period due to the operations of upstream reservoirs, which were designed to hold winter and spring runoff for release in summer and fall. This work also confirms a dramatic decadal-scale hydrologic shift in the watershed from very wet to very dry conditions during the late 19th and early 20th centuries; while not unprecedented, these shifts have been seen only a few times in the past millennium. This shift resulted in an increase in salinity intrusion in the first three decades of the 20th century, as documented through early records. Population growth and extensive watershed modification during this period exacerbated this underlying hydrologic shift. Putting this shift in the context of other anthropogenic drivers is important in understanding the historical response of the estuary and in setting salinity targets for estuarine restoration. By characterizing the long-term behavior of San Francisco Estuary, this work supports decision-making in the State of California related to flow and salinity management for restoration of the estuarine ecosystem.