Simulation and optimal control for a long‐distance water diversion project under different rainfall types: A case study in the Middle Route of China's South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project *

It is important to identify the source information after a sudden water contamination incident occurs in a water supply system. The accuracy of the simulation model's parameters determines the accuracy of the source information. However, it is difficult to obtain the true value of these parameters by existing methods, so reduction of the errors caused by the uncertainty of these parameters is a crucial problem. A source identification framework which considers the uncertainty of the model's sensitive parameters and combines Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms simulation is established, and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is taken as the case study in this paper. Compared with a framework which does not consider the uncertainty of the model's parameters, the proposed framework could solve the error caused by the wrong choice of model parameters and obtain more accurate results. In addition, the proposed framework based on traditional MCMC and that based on the Delayed Rejection and Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM-MCMC) are compared to prove that the DRAM-MCMC is more convergent and accurate. Lastly, the proposed framework based on DRAM-MCMC is proved to solve the problem with high practicality and generality in the studied long distance water diversion project.

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Operational Safety Risk Assessment for the Water Channels of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based on TODIM-FMEA

Complexity ◽

10.1155/2020/6691764 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-15

Author(s):

Huimin Li ◽

Li Ji ◽

Feng Li ◽

Hairui Li ◽

Qingguo Sun ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Failure Modes ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Water Diversion ◽

Water Delivery ◽

The South ◽

Long Distance ◽

Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽

Water Diversion Project ◽

North Water

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project consists of long-distance water delivery channels and a complicated geological environment along the way. To deal with the operation safety of the water conveyance channels in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, this study analyzes six failure modes: structural cracks, poor water delivery during ice periods, instability of canal slopes, material aging, abnormal leakage, and foundation defects. Based on FMEA, a multigranularity language evaluation method that can be converted into interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is used to evaluate the severity (S), occurrence (O), and detection difficulty (D) of the six failure modes. Interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to calculate the weights of the risk factors. Finally, a ranking model of each failure mode is built based on the TODIM method. The final ranking results show that the risk of abnormal leakage is the largest, and the risk of poor water delivery during ice periods is the smallest. The feasibility and validity of the calculation results are verified by comparing them with the ranking results of the traditional RPN and TOPSIS methods. The TODIM-FMEA risk assessment model offers a new solution to the problem of risk assessment for water transfer projects.

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A Gateway to Rapid Prediction of Water Quality: A Case Study in China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Water ◽

10.3390/w13172407 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (17) ◽

pp. 2407

Author(s):

Yuxuan Zhang ◽

Ranhang Zhao ◽

Haofang Wang ◽

Tao Peng ◽

Huaqing Zhao

Keyword(s):

Water Pollution ◽

Water Quality ◽

Water Transfer ◽

Water Diversion ◽

Successful Operation ◽

Long Distance ◽

Rapid Prediction ◽

Water Diversion Project ◽

North Water ◽

Sudden Water Pollution

Water quality assurance is the primary factor for the successful operation of water diversion projects across river basins. The rapid prediction of water pollution is the basis for timely and effective emergency control and disposal measures. In China, since the open channels intersect with numerous waterways and traffic arteries, water transfer projects are prone to sudden water pollution accidents. In this paper, the rapid prediction method was developed for sudden water pollution accidents that possibly occurred in the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (ERP) in Shandong Province. With the empirical formula of the pollution transfer law, a rapid prediction model of water quality (WQRP) was established based on the simulation of the typical accidents in the main channel. Finally, four typical accidents were selected as application examples, and the prediction results were compared with the results from a computer numerical simulation to demonstrate the validity of the model. The results showed that the prediction results by the WQRP model meet the accuracy requirements. This method is of great significance for providing water transport security in the extreme conditions of long-distance water transfer projects.

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