A new method to restore the impact of land‐use change on flood frequency based on the Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modelling System model

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. 1520-1532
Author(s):  
Xin Yan ◽  
Musheng Lin ◽  
Xingwei Chen ◽  
Huaxia Yao ◽  
Chuanming Liu ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.



2009 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Breuer ◽  
J.A. Huisman


Author(s):  
Allison Neil

Soil properties are strongly influenced by the composition of the surrounding vegetation. We investigated soil properties of three ecosystems; a coniferous forest, a deciduous forest and an agricultural grassland, to determine the impact of land use change on soil properties. Disturbances such as deforestation followed by cultivation can severely alter soil properties, including losses of soil carbon. We collected nine 40 cm cores from three ecosystem types on the Roebuck Farm, north of Perth Village, Ontario, Canada. Dominant species in each ecosystem included hemlock and white pine in the coniferous forest; sugar maple, birch and beech in the deciduous forest; grasses, legumes and herbs in the grassland. Soil pH varied little between the three ecosystems and over depth. Soils under grassland vegetation had the highest bulk density, especially near the surface. The forest sites showed higher cation exchange capacity and soil moisture than the grassland; these differences largely resulted from higher organic matter levels in the surface forest soils. Vertical distribution of organic matter varied greatly amongst the three ecosystems. In the forest, more of the organic matter was located near the surface, while in the grassland organic matter concentrations varied little with depth. The results suggest that changes in land cover and land use alters litter inputs and nutrient cycling rates, modifying soil physical and chemical properties. Our results further suggest that conversion of forest into agricultural land in this area can lead to a decline in soil carbon storage.





2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
H. Renssen ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
R. T. van Balen ◽  
J. Vandenberghe

Abstract. In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.





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