scholarly journals Who Knows Best What the Next Year Will Hold for You? The Validity of Direct and Personality–based Predictions of Future Life Experiences across Different Perceivers

2020 ◽  
pp. per.2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele M. Wessels ◽  
Johannes Zimmermann ◽  
Daniel Leising
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Big Five ◽  
European Association ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Meaningful Life ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Positivity Bias ◽  
The Common ◽  
Actual Life

This study explored the validity of person judgements by targets and their acquaintances (‘informants’) in longitudinally predicting a broad range of psychologically meaningful life experiences. Judgements were gathered from four sources (targets, N = 189; and three types of informants, N = 1352), and their relative predictive validity was compared for three types of judgement: direct predictions of future life experiences (e.g. number of new friendships), broad (Big Five) domains (e.g. extraversion), and narrower personality nuances (e.g. sociable). Approximately 1 year later, the targets’ actual life experiences were retrospectively assessed by the targets, and by informants nominated by the targets (TNI). Overall, we found evidence for predictive validity across predictor sources and types. Direct predictions by targets were by far the most valid, followed by TNI. Personality–based predictions by targets and TNI had substantial but lower validity. Domain–based predictions were less valid than nuance–based predictions. Overall, informants with lower ‘liking’ and ‘knowing’ towards targets made less valid predictions. Person–centred multilevel analyses showed both considerable validity of direct predictions (which increased with knowing) and positivity bias (which increased with liking). Taken together, given the relatively high methodological rigour of the study, these results provide an especially realistic picture of the rather moderate predictive power of person judgements regarding future life experiences and corroborate the common practice of obtaining such judgements from targets and their close acquaintances. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology

scholarly journals Who knows best what the next year will hold for you? The validity of direct and personality-based predictions of future life experiences across different perceivers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele M. Wessels ◽  
Johannes Zimmermann ◽  
Daniel Leising
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Big Five ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Meaningful Life ◽  
Positivity Bias ◽  
Methodological Rigor ◽  
The Common ◽  
One Year ◽  
Actual Life

This study explored the validity of person judgments by targets and their acquaintances (“informants”) in longitudinally predicting a broad range of psychologically meaningful life experiences. Judgments were gathered from four sources (targets: N = 189, and three types of informants: N = 1,352), and their relative predictive validity was compared for three types of judgment: direct predictions of future life experiences (e.g., number of new friendships), broad (Big Five) domains (e.g., extraversion), and narrower personality nuances (e.g., sociable). Approximately one year later, the targets’ actual life experiences were retrospectively assessed by targets, and informants nominated by the targets (TNI). Overall, we found evidence for predictive validity across predictor sources and types. Direct predictions by targets were by far the most valid, followed by TNI. Personality-based predictions by targets and TNI had substantial, but lower validity. Domain-based predictions were less valid than nuance-based predictions. Overall, informants with lower “liking” and “knowing” towards targets made less valid predictions. Person-centered multilevel analyses showed both considerable validity of direct predictions (which increased with knowing), and positivity bias (which increased with liking). Taken together, given the relatively high methodological rigor of the study, these results provide an especially realistic picture of the (rather moderate) predictive power of person judgments regarding future life experiences, and corroborate the common practice of obtaining such judgments from targets and their close acquaintances.

scholarly journals Successful Explanations Start with Accurate Descriptions: Questionnaire Items as Personality Markers for More Accurate Predictions

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 186-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Seeboth ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Big Five ◽  
European Association ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Penalized Regression ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
National Child Development Study ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Behavioural Specificity ◽  
Per Se

Personality–outcome associations, typically represented using the Big Five personality domains, are ubiquitous, but often weak and possibly driven by the constituents of these domains. We hypothesized that representing the associations using personality questionnaire items (as markers for personality nuances) could increase prediction strength. Using the National Child Development Study ( N = 8719), we predicted 40 diverse outcomes from both the Big Five domains and their 50 items. Models were trained (using penalized regression) and applied for prediction in independent sample partitions (with 100 permutations). Item models tended to out–predict Big Five models (explaining on average 30% more variance), regardless of outcomes’ independently rated breadth versus behavioural specificity. Moreover, the predictive power of Big Five domains per se was at least partly inflated by the unique variance of their constituent items, especially for generally more predictable outcomes. Removing the Big Five variance from items marginally reduced their predictive power. These findings are consistent with the possibility that the associations of personality with outcomes often pertain to (potentially large numbers of) specific behavioural, cognitive, affective, and motivational characteristics represented by single questionnaire items rather than to the broader (underlying) traits that these items are ostensibly indicators of. This may also have implications for personality–based interventions. Copyright © 2018 European Association of Personality Psychology

Positive Self–regard and Claim to Leadership: Two Fundamental Forms of Self–evaluation

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 565-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Leising ◽  
Peter Borkenau ◽  
Johannes Zimmermann ◽  
Cornelia Roski ◽  
Anne Leonhardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Association ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Personal Traits ◽  
Self Evaluation ◽  
The Common ◽  
Conceptual Confusion ◽  
Very High

The present article examines the common factor structure of various self–evaluative personality constructs. Consistent with previous research, we found considerable redundancy between constructs. Two basic forms of self–evaluation could be distinguished: Positive Self–regard (PSR) reflects people's contentedness with themselves in comparison with their own standards. Constructs such as depression, self–esteem and neuroticism have very high loadings on this factor. In contrast, Claim to Leadership (CTL) reflects the subjective conviction that one is called to take charge and lead others. This conviction is often called ‘narcissism’. PSR mainly reflects an intra–personal kind of self–evaluation, whereas CTL reflects an inter–personal kind. Both forms of self–evaluation independently predict intellectual self–enhancement, but only one of them (PSR) also predicts self–reported mental health. Moreover, the two forms of self–evaluation are differentially associated with self–reported and peer–reported inter–personal traits (Dominance and Affiliation). Finally, the concepts of ‘Grandiosity’ and ‘Vulnerability’ from narcissism research may easily be reframed in terms of CTL and PSR. The two–dimensional framework may help overcome the conceptual confusion that exists around different forms of self–evaluation and streamline the field for future research. Copyright © 2013 European Association of Personality Psychology

Antecedents and Consequences of Mimicry: A Naturalistic Interaction Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Kurzius ◽  
Peter Borkenau
Keyword(s):  
Big Five ◽  
European Association ◽  
Multilevel Modelling ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Nonverbal Behaviour ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Level 1 ◽  
Antecedents And Consequences ◽  
Interaction Approach ◽  
Level 2

Mimicking, that is showing the same nonverbal behaviour as one's interaction partner, is related to trait Affiliation, but there are no previous investigations on its relations to broader concepts of personality. In this study, personality was assessed in terms of the Big Five and the two interpersonal dimensions Affiliation and Dominance. Dyads of unacquainted participants completed a task, several of their behaviours being coded every 10 s. Moreover, the interactants were instructed either to cooperate or to compete, and their performance and liking were measured. Using multilevel modelling, mimicry coefficients were estimated (Level 1) and predicted from personality (Level 2) and the situational context (Level 3). In addition, performance and being liked were predicted from mimicry and the context. Mimicry turned out to be widespread, being predicted by personality traits for some behaviours. In turn, mimicry predicted performance and being liked, some of these effects also depending on the context. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Personality Psychology

Predicting Creativity Based on the Facets of the Theoretical Intellect Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Mussel ◽  
Alexander S. McKay ◽  
Matthias Ziegler ◽  
Johannes Hewig ◽  
James C. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Construct Validity ◽  
Cognitive Load ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Big Five ◽  
European Association ◽  
Openness To Experience ◽  
The Self ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Remote Associates Test

The present study investigates how the construct intellect, according to the Theoretical Intellect Framework (TIF), predicts creativity. The TIF is a theoretical model describing the structure of the construct intellect, a sub–dimension of the Big Five domain openness to experience. People (N = 2709) from two sub–samples (undergraduate students and Amazon MTurkers) completed one of three creativity tasks (self–reported, remote associates, or rated photo caption) and the Intellect Scale. The results support hypotheses derived from the TIF, as the operation Create, rather than the operations Think or Learn, significantly and in some cases uniquely predicted the self–reported creativity indicators. Creativity indicators with a strong cognitive load (remote associates test and rated photo caption), however, were predicted by the operation Think. Results are discussed with regards to the nomological net of the operation Create and the construct validity of the creativity assessments. We provide implications for applied purposes and call for further examination of the TIF with additional creativity measures. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Personality Psychology

scholarly journals Affect, Behaviour, Cognition and Desire in the Big Five: An Analysis of Item Content and Structure

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 478-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Wilt ◽  
William Revelle
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Big Five ◽  
European Association ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Big Five Traits ◽  
Conceptual Definition ◽  
Item Content ◽  
Definition Of

Personality psychology is concerned with affect (A), behaviour (B), cognition (C) and desire (D), and personality traits have been defined conceptually as abstractions used to either explain or summarise coherent ABC (and sometimes D) patterns over time and space. However, this conceptual definition of traits has not been reflected in their operationalisation, possibly resulting in theoretical and practical limitations to current trait inventories. Thus, the goal of this project was to determine the affective, behavioural, cognitive and desire (ABCD) components of Big–Five personality traits. The first study assessed the ABCD content of items measuring Big–Five traits in order to determine the ABCD composition of traits and identify items measuring relatively high amounts of only one ABCD content. The second study examined the correlational structure of scales constructed from items assessing ABCD content via a large, web–based study. An assessment of Big–Five traits that delineates ABCD components of each trait is presented, and the discussion focuses on how this assessment builds upon current approaches of assessing personality. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Personality Psychology

Predictive Validity of Big Five Circumplex Diagonals

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan B. Morris ◽  
Gary N. Burns ◽  
Corinne P. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Big Five

Personality in Action: Assessing Personality to Identify an ‘Ideal’ Conscientious Response Type with Two Different Behavioural Tasks

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 808-825
Author(s):  
Gabriela Gniewosz ◽  
Tuulia M. Ortner ◽  
Thomas Scherndl
Keyword(s):  
European Association ◽  
Cognitive Styles ◽  
Personality Characteristics ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Subjective Response ◽  
Response Type ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Typological Approach ◽  
Related Response

Performance on achievement tests is characterized by an interplay of different individual attributes such as personality traits, motivation or cognitive styles. However, the prediction of individuals’ performance from classical self–report personality measures obtained during large and comprehensive aptitude assessments is biased by, for example, subjective response tendencies. This study goes beyond by using behavioural data based on two different types of tasks, requiring different conscientious–related response behaviours. Moreover, a typological approach is proposed, which includes different behavioural indicators to obtain information on complex personality characteristics. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology

scholarly journals Can Facebook likes predict the purchase probability of electricity storage systems?

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Poier
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Big Five ◽  
Control Sample ◽  
Big Five Personality Traits ◽  
Photovoltaic System ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Electricity Storage ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
User Groups

AbstractThis study among owners of photovoltaic systems investigates whether users' Big Five personality traits derived from their Facebook likes contribute to whether or not they adopt an electricity storage. It is based on the finding that the digital footprint, especially the Facebook likes, can in part predict the personality of users better than friends and family. The survey was conducted among 159 Facebook users in Germany who owned a photovoltaic system. For comparison, a control sample with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel with 425 photovoltaic owners among 7286 individuals was used. The results show that, for extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism, the mean scores could be sufficiently predicted. However, a positive correlation could only be detected for extraversion. The comparison of the user groups could not provide satisfying results. None of the Big Five personality traits could be used to distinguish the two user groups from each other. Although the results did not support the hypotheses, this study offers insights into the possibilities of combining data mining, personality psychology, and consumer research.

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