scholarly journals Who knows best what the next year will hold for you? The validity of direct and personality-based predictions of future life experiences across different perceivers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele M. Wessels ◽  
Johannes Zimmermann ◽  
Daniel Leising
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Big Five ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Meaningful Life ◽  
Positivity Bias ◽  
Methodological Rigor ◽  
The Common ◽  
One Year ◽  
Actual Life

This study explored the validity of person judgments by targets and their acquaintances (“informants”) in longitudinally predicting a broad range of psychologically meaningful life experiences. Judgments were gathered from four sources (targets: N = 189, and three types of informants: N = 1,352), and their relative predictive validity was compared for three types of judgment: direct predictions of future life experiences (e.g., number of new friendships), broad (Big Five) domains (e.g., extraversion), and narrower personality nuances (e.g., sociable). Approximately one year later, the targets’ actual life experiences were retrospectively assessed by targets, and informants nominated by the targets (TNI). Overall, we found evidence for predictive validity across predictor sources and types. Direct predictions by targets were by far the most valid, followed by TNI. Personality-based predictions by targets and TNI had substantial, but lower validity. Domain-based predictions were less valid than nuance-based predictions. Overall, informants with lower “liking” and “knowing” towards targets made less valid predictions. Person-centered multilevel analyses showed both considerable validity of direct predictions (which increased with knowing), and positivity bias (which increased with liking). Taken together, given the relatively high methodological rigor of the study, these results provide an especially realistic picture of the (rather moderate) predictive power of person judgments regarding future life experiences, and corroborate the common practice of obtaining such judgments from targets and their close acquaintances.

scholarly journals Who Knows Best What the Next Year Will Hold for You? The Validity of Direct and Personality–based Predictions of Future Life Experiences across Different Perceivers

2020 ◽  
pp. per.2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele M. Wessels ◽  
Johannes Zimmermann ◽  
Daniel Leising
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Big Five ◽  
European Association ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Meaningful Life ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Positivity Bias ◽  
The Common ◽  
Actual Life

This study explored the validity of person judgements by targets and their acquaintances (‘informants’) in longitudinally predicting a broad range of psychologically meaningful life experiences. Judgements were gathered from four sources (targets, N = 189; and three types of informants, N = 1352), and their relative predictive validity was compared for three types of judgement: direct predictions of future life experiences (e.g. number of new friendships), broad (Big Five) domains (e.g. extraversion), and narrower personality nuances (e.g. sociable). Approximately 1 year later, the targets’ actual life experiences were retrospectively assessed by the targets, and by informants nominated by the targets (TNI). Overall, we found evidence for predictive validity across predictor sources and types. Direct predictions by targets were by far the most valid, followed by TNI. Personality–based predictions by targets and TNI had substantial but lower validity. Domain–based predictions were less valid than nuance–based predictions. Overall, informants with lower ‘liking’ and ‘knowing’ towards targets made less valid predictions. Person–centred multilevel analyses showed both considerable validity of direct predictions (which increased with knowing) and positivity bias (which increased with liking). Taken together, given the relatively high methodological rigour of the study, these results provide an especially realistic picture of the rather moderate predictive power of person judgements regarding future life experiences and corroborate the common practice of obtaining such judgements from targets and their close acquaintances. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology

Predictive Validity of Big Five Circumplex Diagonals

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan B. Morris ◽  
Gary N. Burns ◽  
Corinne P. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Big Five

Peculiarities of the juvenile period of the native Chechen genotypes of willow leaf pear (Pyrus salicifolia Pall.)

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 32-38
Author(s):  
E. A. Dolmatov ◽  
R. B. Borzayev ◽  
A. N. Shaipov
Keyword(s):  
Chestnut Soil ◽  
Crop Breeding ◽  
Juvenile Period ◽  
Period 2 ◽  
Russian Research Institute ◽  
The Common ◽  
One Year ◽  
First Time ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Creative Cooperation

The results of the study of the duration of the juvenile period of indigenous Chechen willow leaf pear genotypes (Pyrus salicifolia Pall.) are given in connection with the acceleration of the breeding process and the use of selected forms in pear breeding for high precocity. The studies were carried out in 2016-2019 at OOO “Orchards of Chechnya” in accordance with the Agreement on creative cooperation with the Russian Research Institute of Fruit Crop Breeding. The work was carried out in accordance with generally accepted programs and methods. The objects of the study were one-year and two-year-old pear seedlings obtained from sowing seeds of selected dwarf and low-growing local Chechen forms of willow pear (P. salicifolia Pall.), laying fruit buds on annual growths and seedlings of Caucasian pear (P. caucasica Fed.), 20 500 pcs. of each specie. The aim of the research was to study the potential of precocity of willow pear seedlings and to reveal of selected forms with the greatest degree of this trait. Stratified seeds were sown in the sowing department of the OOO “Orchards of Chechnya” production nursery in April, 2017. The seedlings were grown according to the common technology in dryland conditions on the plot with chestnut soil. The first fl owering of plants was noted in the spring, 2019. As a result of the research, for the first time on a large number of the experimental material it was found that in the off spring of the indigenous Chechen willow leaf pear genotypes, the selection of a little more than 2% of seedlings with a very short juvenile period (2 years) was possible. They are of great interest in accelerating the breeding process and in the selection of new pear varieties with high precocity. 20 willow leaf pear genotypes were selected for the further use in breeding for high precocity and as sources of the trait of short juvenile period.

scholarly journals Idiopathic Free-Floating Thrombus of the Common Carotid Artery

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Silver ◽  
Irene Gulka ◽  
Michael Nicolle ◽  
Ramesh Sahjpaul ◽  
Vladimir Hachinski
Keyword(s):  
Carotid Artery ◽  
Common Carotid Artery ◽  
Multimodal Imaging ◽  
Doppler Ultrasonography ◽  
Resonance Imaging ◽  
Wall Defect ◽  
Floating Thrombus ◽  
Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging ◽  
The Common ◽  
One Year

Background:The observation of an intraluminal common carotid artery thrombus overlying a wall defect at ultrasonography or angiography is unusual. To our knowledge, there are no previous reports of a free-floating thrombus in the common carotid artery.Case Report:A 45-year-old woman who was previously healthy and on no medications presented with acute hemiparesis and aphasia. Following testing that included carotid duplex and trancranial Doppler ultrasonography, diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, and digital subtraction angiography, the patient underwent emergency open embolectomy. No underlying wall defect was seen at the time of imaging or surgery. No obvious hypercoagulable state could be identified. Her NIH Stroke Scale score improved from 26 at admission to 2 at three months and 1 at one year.Conclusions:Multimodal imaging may have improved diagnosis and management in this patient with a unique finding. The source of the thrombus remains obscure.

scholarly journals Role of Paediatricians in Paediatric Ophthalmology

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-82
Author(s):  
Ujjowala Devi Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin A Deficiency ◽  
Early Screening ◽  
Early Referral ◽  
Eye Health ◽  
Total Lack ◽  
Eye Examination ◽  
The Common ◽  
One Year ◽  
Paediatric Ophthalmology

Children are primarily examined by paediatricians. In Nepal, child health is in low priority due to illiteracy, there is total lack of awareness about children’s eye health. The common avoidable causes of childhood blindness are refractive errors, amblyopia, retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), vitamin A deficiency (VAD), xerophthalmia, ophthalmia neonatorum (ON), congenital cataract, and retinoblastoma. Paediatricians could be the key persons for early referral of these children to a paediatric ophthalmologist. Paediatricians can send the patients for eye examination after birth within 6 weeks, at 6 months, at one year and before going to school. In conclusion, early screening and referral by the paediatricians to the paediatric ophthalmologist prevents children from being sightless. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jnps.v33i1.7605 J Nepal Paediatr Soc. 2013;33(1):80-82

On the Stress/Parasuicide Or Parasuicide/Stress Relationship

1991 ◽  
Vol 68 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1317-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
George A. Clum ◽  
Richard L. Luscomb ◽  
Anne T. Patsiokas
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Stress ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Attempted Suicide ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Life Changes ◽  
Suicide Attempters ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
One Year

The question of whether high stress leads to attempting suicide (parasuicide) or suicide attempters are more likely to report high stress was examined in a one-year follow-up study of 98 persons, 47 of whom had attempted suicide. Cross-lagged panel correlations between stress and parasuicide provided both concurrent and predictive validity that stress as measured by life changes leads to parasuicide. A high relationship between stress at baseline and stress at follow-up provided support for the notion that some individuals experience chronic stress and that such individuals may be the ones at risk for future suicide attempts.

scholarly journals Measuring the Impact of Observations on the Predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a Shallow-Water Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Kramer ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra ◽  
Stefano Pierini ◽  
Peter Jan van Leeuwen
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Water ◽  
Particle Filtering ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Kuroshio Extension ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Shallow Water Model ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Kuroshio

Abstract In this paper, sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on an ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension. This particle-filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows the predictive power—an entropy-based measure—of the ensemble prediction to be determined. The proposed setup makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a postprocessing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow-water model. This study investigates the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering states of the Kuroshio Extension. Optimal observation locations correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the Kuroshio Extension. During the contracted state it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast.

scholarly journals Koi herpesvirus disease in carp

2007 ◽  
Vol 61 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 53-64
Author(s):  
Svetlana Jeremic ◽  
Vladimir Radosavljevic
Keyword(s):  
Water Temperature ◽  
High Mortality ◽  
Channel Catfish ◽  
Fish Ponds ◽  
Koi Carp ◽  
Koi Herpesvirus ◽  
The World ◽  
Diseased Fish ◽  
The Common ◽  
One Year

A disease in the koi carp (Cyprinus carpio koi) and the common carp (Cyprinus carpio carpio), caused by the herpesvirus and accompanied by a high mortality rate, has spread across numerous fish ponds all over the world since 1998, resulting in massive mortality and significant financial losses. The herpesvirus-like virus, called the koi herpesvirus (KHV) has been isolated and identified from the koi and the common carp in the course of the incidences of massive mortalities. The first appearance of a disease with a high mortality in the common and the koi carp caused by the koi herpesvirus (KHV) was described in 1998 in Israel and the United States of America (USA). Since that time, a large number of cases of outbreaks of this disease have been confirmed throughout the world, including the USA, Israel, and a large number of European countries. The deaths occurred seasonally, in late spring or early autumn, when the water temperature was from 18-28?C. The most important factor of the environment that affects the occurrence and gravity of this disease is the water temperature. This disease is currently considered one of the factors that present the biggest threat to populations of the common and the koi carp. Diseased fish are disoriented, their movements uncoordinated, their breathing rapid, gills swollen, and they have local skin lesions. The virus was isolated from tissue of diseased fish and cultivated on a KF-1 (koi fin cells) cell line. Electronic microscopy examinations revealed virus identical viral particles of the Herpesviridae family. Analyses of the virion polypeptide and DNA established differences between the KHV and the previously known herpesvirus of the Cyprinida family, Herpesvirus cyprini (CHV), and the virus of the channel catfish (Channel catfish virus - CCV). In the years 2004 and 2005, high mortality was established among one-year and two-year carp fry on three fish ponds. At two ponds, the deaths occurred among one year and two-year carp fry during the spring period, when the water temperature was over 18?C. During the autumn period, mortality was recorded among one-year carp fry at water temperatures above 23?C. On the grounds of the determined pathomorphological changes and the high mortality during the period of the year when the temperature was above 18?C, we suspect that KHV is also present in fish ponds in Serbia, even though the virus itself has not been isolated. The objective of this work is briefly to present the relevant data on this disease which is inflicting significant losses to carp production, to show the current distribution of this disease, the diagnostic methods, and the possibilities for the prevention and control of KHV.

Improving Predictive Power of Conjoint Analysis by Constrained Parameter Estimation

1983 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Srinivasan ◽  
Arun K. Jain ◽  
Naresh K. Malhotra
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
A Priori ◽  
A Priori Knowledge ◽  
Constrained Estimation ◽  
First Choice ◽  
Full Profile ◽  
Different Levels

The prediction of first choice preferences by the full-profile method of conjoint analysis can be improved significantly by imposing constraints on parameters based on a priori knowledge of the ordering of part worths for different levels of an attribute. Constrained estimation however, has little effect on the predictive validity of the tradeoff method because the preference judgments within rows (or columns) of tradeoff tables have largely the same role as the constraints.

The ecology of the sheep tick, Ixodes ricinus L.

Parasitology ◽  
1950 ◽  
Vol 40 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 14-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Milne
Keyword(s):  
Ixodes Ricinus ◽  
Horizontal Plane ◽  
Limited Time ◽  
New Work ◽  
One Year ◽  
Considerable Period ◽  
Vegetation Layer ◽  
Activity Season ◽  
Actual Life ◽  
Effective Life

Since it is concerned with filling in certain details of a picture, long since sketched in outline, the new work in this paper permits only a somewhat disjointed summary.From a study of Ixodes ricinus L. in nature, the main new facts emerging are:(I) Unfed adults in a deep vegetation layer such as presented by rough hill or moorland pasture dominated by bents, heather or bracken. (i) Practically all inactive unfed ticks are in the underlying mat, and nearly all of these in the upper portion of the mat. This distribution does not change, summer or winter. (ii) When the tick is active its progression is practically confined to the vertical, i.e. between its niche in the mat and the vegetation tips immediately above. Random undirected movements due to certain circumstances may achieve a 0–8 in. (average 2 in.) change of position in the horizontal plane; but there is apparently no ruling urge to move in the horizontal plane. (iii) The unfed tick comes to the vegetation tips to await a host for only a limited time during the 3-month activity season. Commonly this amounts to about five periods of 4–5 days each if no host is forthcoming. Between the periods of activity it returns to the upper mat. If it stayed constantly at the tips its survival time would be much shorter than normal. (iv) From nymphs engorged in spring, adults emerge in autumn but remain inactive for a considerable period. About half of them may perish within the first 100 days after emergence. Survivors become active during the following March–June. Effective life ends when the tick, if still unfed, finally stops coming to the vegetation tips, the only position from which a host can normally be achieved. After emergence, the effective life of the unfed adult deprived of a host is less than one year; and the actual life is not much more than one year at best. Thus adults not finding a host in spring will be ineffective, i.e. die without reproducing before the next activity season.

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