Methods for Determining the Value of Model Development in Cost/Benefit/Risk Analysis

Author(s):  
W. Scott Nainis
2001 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 223-230
Author(s):  
Takahiro KAWAYOKE ◽  
Hirokazu TATANO ◽  
Norio OKADA
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Daniel Francis ◽  
Flavia Tsang ◽  
Gregory D. Erhardt

Statewide travel models are analysis tools that simulate transportation system conditions and are used to answer “what if” questions about proposed plans and policies. In the United States, they are in use or in development in 39 out of 50 state departments of transportation (DOTs). States without a statewide model are faced with the decision of whether to invest in one, whereas states with models need to decide when and whether to upgrade. Prior efforts to aid this decision making provided detailed synthesis on the cost of statewide modeling, but it has been difficult for other states to use the lessons learned, because cost is largely driven by each state’s specific circumstances. There has also been very little research on quantifying the value of models. To address these gaps, the present research uses a novel scenario-based interview approach. Representatives from 29 DOTs and five consultancies participated in our scenario-based interviews, from which we collected cost estimates for three archetypical statewide models and willingness-to-pay estimates (i.e., perceived value) under nine model development and policy focus scenarios. Our results show that cost ranges from $500,000 for an archetypical Basic 3-Step Model to between $2.8 million and $5 million for an Activity-Based Model for a large state, with data collection comprising a large portion of the cost (36–66%). Further, the perceived value of statewide models exceeds the costs by a factor of 2.4–11.3, with the cost–benefit ratio being higher when a DOT is interested in a broader set of policy issues.


Author(s):  
Maria Manuela Cunha ◽  
Goran D. Putnik

A large body of knowledge covering enterprise integration architectures, modelling, and methodologies (EIAM&M) has been developed covering various types of enterprises. Most viewpoints have been either static or cycle based, with the major drivers being design and implementation of computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) plant and major engineering projects including virtual enterprises (Bernus & Nemes, 1996, p. 377- 450; Whitman & Huff, 1997; Williams, Rathwell, & Li, 2001).


Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 293
Author(s):  
Ari Laurén ◽  
Marjo Palviainen ◽  
Samuli Launiainen ◽  
Kersti Leppä ◽  
Leena Stenberg ◽  
...  

Drainage is an essential prerequisite in peatland forest management, which generally, but not always, increases stand growth. Growth response depends on weather conditions, stand and site characteristics, management and biogeochemical processes. We constructed a SUSI-simulator (SUoSImulaattori, in Finnish), which describes hydrology, stand growth and nutrient availability under different management, site types and weather conditions. In the model development and sensitivity analysis, we used water table (WT) and stand growth data from 11 Scots pine stands. The simulator was validated against a larger dataset collected from boreal drained peatlands in Finland. In validation, SUSI was shown to predict WT and stand growth well. Stand growth was mainly limited by inadequate potassium supply, and in Sphagnum peats by low oxygen availability. Model application was demonstrated for ditch network maintenance (DNM) by comparing stand growth with shallow (−0.3 m) and deep ditches (−0.9 m): The growth responses varied between 0.5 and 3.5 m3 ha−1 in five years, which is comparable to experimental results. SUSI can promote sustainable peatland management and help in avoiding unnecessary drainage operations and associated environmental effects, such as increased carbon emissions, peat subsidence, and nutrient leaching. The source code is publicly available, and the modular structure allows model extension to cost–benefit analyses and nutrient export to water courses.


Science ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 208 (4448) ◽  
pp. 1114-1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chauncey Starr ◽  
Chris Whipple

The analytical approaches utilized for evaluating the acceptability of technological risk originate from analogies to financial cost-benefit risk analysis. These analogies appear generally valid for viewing risk from a societal basis, but are not applicable to individual risk assessments. Conflicts arising from these different views of risk assessment provide insights to the origins of individual, intuitive evaluations. Societal risk decisions made under conflict represent political compromises, and the resulting decision process creates substantial conflict costs. The pragmatic use of quantitative risk criteria (safety targets) may be useful in reducing these costs.


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