A Comparison of Bayesian Spatial Models for Cancer Incidence at a Small Area Level: Theory and Performance

Author(s):  
Susanna Cramb ◽  
Earl Duncan ◽  
Peter Baade ◽  
Kerrie L. Mengersen
2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1249-1259
Author(s):  
Marc Marí-Dell’Olmo ◽  
Laura Oliveras ◽  
Carlos Vergara-Hernández ◽  
Lucia Artazcoz ◽  
Carme Borrell ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. e2017021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erfan Ayubi ◽  
Mohammad Ali Mansournia ◽  
Ali Ghanbari Motlagh ◽  
Alireza Mosavi-Jarrahi ◽  
Ali Hosseini ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Win Wah ◽  
Rob G. Stirling ◽  
Susannah Ahern ◽  
Arul Earnest

Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001–2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019–2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Itismita Mohanty ◽  
Theo Niyonsenga ◽  
Tom Cochrane ◽  
Debra Rickwood

Abstract Background Informal carers suffer from worse health outcomes than non-carers due to their caregiving role. Yet, in a society carers health is as important as that of their care recipients. This study investigated the self-assessed mental and general health outcomes of informal carers in Australia. It evaluated the influence of carers’ personal social capital- a logically linked sequence of their social behaviour such as community participation, social support and trust in others- on their health outcomes. The study estimated the magnitude of small area level variation at Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1) along with individual level variation in carers’ health outcomes. Methods The study used a multilevel mixed effects cross-sectional design using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia survey, wave 14. It included Australians aged 15 years and older that were surveyed in the year 2014. The sample consisted of 12,767 individuals and 5004 SA1s. The outcome measures included- mental health, general health and physical functioning, domains of the Short Form 36 Questionnaire, a widely used multi-dimensional measure of health-related quality of life. Results Informal carers suffered from poor mental (Beta = − 0.587, p = 0.003) and general health (Beta = − 0.670, p = 0.001) outcomes compared to non-carers in Australia. These health outcomes exhibited significant variation acrossSA1s in Australia, with 12–13% variation in general and mental health. However, within small local areas, differences at the individual level, accounted for most of the variation in outcomes. Moreover, levels of community participation, personal social connection and trust, as perceived by individuals in the communities, had a positive influence on both mental and general health of carers and non-carers, and were more beneficial for carers compared to non-carers. Conclusion It seems that the positive influence of social capital for carers helps them in coping with the negative impact of their caregiving duty on health outcomes. Findings suggested that some targeted community support programs for carers to build on their personal social cohesion and trust in their community could help in improving their poor health profiles. Moreover, improved informal carers’ health may help the health system in better managing their resources.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document