This chapter outlines the design of the current study. It discusses my underlying logic for scoping energy system change with theory-building in the form of (1) a framework on intervention that operationalizes insights from the previous chapter and (2) conceptual models of structural readiness. A brief review then follows of related, global developments to provide broader context for the cases. The chapter concludes with a preview of the transitions that will be discussed in depth in subsequent chapters. This book draws on my research of four national energy system transitions covering the period since 1970. I selected a timeframe that reflected a common context of international events which preceded as well as followed the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. Such framing allowed me to trace policy and technology learning over multiple decades for different cases. I completed field work for this project primarily between 2010 and 2012, with updates continuing through to the time this book went to press. I selected cases from more than 100 countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) databases. The ones that I chose represented countries which demonstrated an increase of 100% or more in domestic production of a specific, low carbon energy and the displacement of at least 15 percentage points in the energy mix by this same, low carbon energy relative to traditional fuels for the country and sector of relevance. I utilized adoption and displacement metrics to consider both absolute and relative changes. Final cases reflect a diversity of energy types and, to some extent, differences in the socio-economic and geographic attributes of the countries. The technologies represent some of the more economically-competitive substitutes for fossil fuels. It’s important to emphasize that the number of cases was neither exhaustive nor fully representative. Instead, the cases reflect an illustrative group of newer, low carbon energy technologies for in depth evaluation. Each of the cases shares certain, basic similarities. These include a national energy system comprised of actors, inputs, and outputs with systemic architecture connecting the constituent parts in a complex network of energy-centered flows over time—including extraction, production, sale, delivery, regulation, and consumption.
Introduction
