Assessing Social Impacts in Current and Future Electricity Production in the European Union

In this chapter social impacts of European electricity production are compared between the current situation and the REFLEX scenarios for 2050 from a life cycle perspective using the SOCA tool. The analyses indicate that for a limited number of social impact categories the SOCA add-on tool can identify geographic locations where improvement in social performance may non-negligibly improve the social impacts for future energy systems. Results show that gas supply from Russia is a major cause of social impact for all future scenarios in the subcategory “fair salary” due to the fact that the minimum wage is below the living wage in the country. The specific process for electricity generation in Europe contributes to social impacts in the same category to a lesser extent.

Optimal Energy Portfolios in the Heating Sector and Flexibility Potentials of Combined-Heat-Power Plants and District Heating Systems

This chapter examines the role of centralized district heating (DH) systems in context of energy system flexibility and decarbonization. The analysis is performed by applying the model TIMES-Heat-EU. Capacity expansion and operation of the district heating generation units is mainly driven by the evolution of the district heating demand, which varies between the REFLEX scenarios. In all scenarios fuel and technology switches toward bioenergy and natural gas leading to CO2 emission reduction. Since the total amount of energy produced (both heat and electricity) is the highest in the High-RES centralized scenario, the corresponding CO2 emissions for district heating are the highest as well. The CO2 emissions can be reduced by ⁓60% in 2050 compared to 2015. Furthermore, the role of thermal energy storage and power-to-heat technologies is examined.

Spatially Disaggregated Impact Pathway Analysis of Direct Particulate Matter Emissions

This chapter focuses on the evaluation of air quality and health impacts associated with direct emissions of air pollutants for different REFLEX scenarios based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework. Ambient concentration of air pollutants is calculated with the use of the Polyphemus Air Quality System. Health impacts are calculated using the concentration-response functions. Results show that particulate matter emissions in Europe will decrease by 10 times till 2050. Also ambient pollutants concentrations decrease in 2050 in all REFLEX scenarios. This leads to the reduction of external costs of almost 20 billion EUR per year.

Optimal Energy Portfolios in the Electricity Sector: Trade-Offs and Interplay Between Different Flexibility Options

The expansion of renewable energy sources (RES) and the electrification of demand side sectors raise the need for power system flexibility. The following model-based analysis illustrates the complexity of the European energy system transformation with pathways regarding the RES expansion, sector coupling, and different levels of flexibility provision. Differences occur concerning the optimal mix of flexibility options between the moderate and ambitious climate target scenarios. Dispatchable back-up capacities are necessary, also in presence of high RES shares. Here, CO2 prices influence the role of low-carbon technologies. Due to cross-sectoral interactions, energy storages have a limited value. For the ambitious scenarios, the emission reductions come close to the Green Deal targets of the European Commission, while levelized costs of electricity increase moderately compared to the less ambitious scenario.

Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations

This chapter summarizes insights and measures to decarbonize the European energy system until the year 2050, as analyzed in the previous 15 chapters, and emphasizes the considerable efforts required to coordinate and govern the targeted energy transition. With increasing aspiration regarding the targeted climate policy the more marked are the required efforts. The reference scenario Mod-RES seems to be well achievable from today’s perspective, while much more additional efforts have to be taken to achieve the more ambitious High-RES scenarios. However, even the High-RES scenarios are less aspiring compared to the aims defined in the European Green Deal. Finally, this chapter highlights conclusions and policy recommendations for a cross-sectoral decarbonization as well as for its resulting environmental, social and health impacts.

Disruptive Demand Side Technologies: Market Shares and Impact on Flexibility in a Decentralized World

Electricity demand is expected to increase strongly as electrification and the use of hydrogen are promising decarbonization options for the demand side sectors transport and industry. In a decentralized system with volatile renewable energy sources, flexibility potentials will play an important role for secure and cost-efficient electricity supply. On the demand side, decentralized PV-battery systems and electric vehicles as well as hydrogen production by electrolyzers could provide the necessary flexibility. Energy demand over time is calculated based on assumed and simulated market shares of these and other low-emission technologies. Impacts on the system and residual load are analyzed, with a focus on the contribution of load shifting as a demand-side measure. Results indicate that load shifting can contribute significantly to integrate RES electricity.

Unintended Environmental Impacts at Local and Global Scale—Trade-Offs of a Low-Carbon Electricity System

The focus on expanding the sector coupling and binding the electricity system and end-user sectors like the transport and industry bring attention to environmental trade-offs. Otherwise, unintended environmental impacts could potentially impede the transformation process. Given that, this paper aims to identify and discuss environmental burdens that should require government attention. For that, the approach of coupling Life Cycle Assessment with the electricity market model (ELTRAMOD) is presented. Results show that the large impact on land use occupation as a regional issue requires attention due to diversified permitting mechanisms and eligibility criteria for solar fields among European member states. Metal and ozone depletion bring the challenge that transformation processes need attention on global limits related to finite resources and fugitive losses of anthropogenic substances.

Electric Vehicle Market Diffusion in Main Non–European Markets

Electric vehicles (i.e., battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are seen as one promising technology toward a sustainable transport system as they have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions. The forecast of their market penetration depends on various factors including the cost development of key components such as the electric battery. This chapter focuses on the impact of experience curves on the battery costs, and consequently on the electric vehicles’ market penetration, which is simulated by coupling two system dynamics transport models: ASTRA, representing Europe, and TE3, representing key non-European car markets. The results of the TE3 model show that the consideration of global endogenous learning curves has an impact on the battery costs and therefore, the development of the electric vehicle stock (“feedback loop”).

Introduction

The future energy system in Europe needs to be decarbonized and thus be based almost exclusively on renewable energy sources. Therefore it is challenged by the intermittent nature of renewables and requires several flexibility options. The interaction between different options and the impact on environment and society are in the focus of this contribution. It is the core objective of this book to analyze and evaluate the development toward a low-carbon energy system with focus on flexibility options in the EU to support the implementation of the Strategy Energy Technology Plan. The analyses are based on a bottom-up modeling environment that considers current and future energy technologies, policy measures and their impact on environment and society while considering technological learning of low-carbon and flexibility technologies.

Scenario Storyline in Context of Decarbonization Pathways for a Future European Energy System

This chapter presents a qualitative description of the scenario storylines for the REFLEX project. The scenario descriptions provide the overall qualitative framework for the modeling activities by setting-up two holistic socio-technical scenarios based on different storylines: the moderate renewable scenario (Mod–RES) as reference scenario and the (de-)centralized high renewable scenarios (High–RES) as ambitious policy scenarios. The chapter highlights the definition of main techno-economic framework parameters, macro-economic and societal drivers as well as of the considered political environment.