scholarly journals Epidemic Compartmental Models and Their Insurance Applications

2021 ◽  
pp. 13-40
Author(s):  
Runhuan Feng ◽  
José Garrido ◽  
Longhao Jin ◽  
Sooie-Hoe Loke ◽  
Linfeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Healthcare Resources ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Financial Applications ◽  
Healthcare Coverage

AbstractOur society’s efforts to fight pandemics rely heavily on our ability to understand, model and predict the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Compartmental models are among the most commonly used mathematical tools to explain reported infections and deaths. This chapter offers a brief overview of basic compartmental models as well as several actuarial applications, ranging from product design and reserving of epidemic insurance, to the projection of healthcare demand and the allocation of scarce resources. The intent is to bridge classical epidemiological models with actuarial and financial applications that provide healthcare coverage and utilise limited healthcare resources during pandemics.

scholarly journals A physically plausible incidence rate for compartmental epidemiological models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Pitschel
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Rate Function ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Contact Model ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Epidemic Modelling ◽  
Rate Functions ◽  
The Stability

Motivated by the recent trajectory of SARS-Cov-2 new infection incidences in Germany and other European countries, this note reconsiders the need to use a non-linear incidence rate function in deterministic compartmental models for current SARS-Cov-2 epidemic modelling. Employing a homogenous contact model, it derives such function systematically using stochastic arguments. The presented result, which is relevant to modelling of proliferation of arbitrary infectious diseases, integrates well with previous analyses, in particular closes an analytical "gap" mentioned in London and Yorke (1973) and complements the stability related work on incidence rate functions of the form βIpSq seen for example in Liu, Hethcote and Levin (1987).

Transformal Role of Product Design in Singapore’s Transition to a Service Economy

2011 ◽  
pp. 431-446
Author(s):  
Peer M. Sathikh
Keyword(s):  
Product Design ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Small Population ◽  
East India Company ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
City State

Singapore, a city state of 4.8 million people, located at the tip of the Malaysian Peninsula, was founded in 1819, when Sir Stamford Raffles of the East India Company established a trading settlement in Singapore. The meeting point for Chinese, Malays, Indians, Arabs, Europeans and others on their journey through the southern seas, Singapore achieved its initial economic success through international trade as a free port and free market. Given the status of an independent country in 1965, Singapore suddenly found itself in a struggle to survive. It’s small population and scarce resources meant that regional and world markets were larger than the domestic market, presenting the government and its policymakers with distinctive economic challenges and opportunities. This chapter tries to recount the policies and subsequent actions put in place in Singapore from the 1960s till the present, promoting the creative industry, including product design, in order to transform a market dependent economy into a service centered economy. This chapter also discusses if and how such a ‘planned intervention’ played an important role in building up the resources and infrastructure within Singapore and in attracting multi-national companies to locate their R&D and design facilities in Singapore, pointing to where it has succeeded and where it has not.

Climate Change-Associated Conflict and Infectious Disease

2017 ◽  
pp. 68-88
Author(s):  
Devin C. Bowles
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Health Personnel ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Food Scarcity ◽  
Surveillance Programs

One of the least appreciated mechanisms by which climate change will affect infectious diseases is via increased violent conflict. Climate change will diminish agricultural and pastoral resources and increase food scarcity in many areas, including already impoverished equatorial regions. Many in the defence and public health fields anticipate that climate change will increase conflict by fuelling competition over scarce resources. Already, some commentators argue that the conflicts in Darfur and Syria were partially caused or exacerbated by climate change. Conflict facilitates a range of conditions conducive to the spread of many infectious diseases, including malnutrition, forced migration, unhygienic living conditions and widespread sexual assault. Flight or killing of health personnel inhibits vaccination, vector control and disease surveillance programs. Emergence of new diseases may go undetected and discovery of outbreaks could be suppressed for strategic reasons. These conditions combine to increase the risk of pandemics.

scholarly journals Evidences supporting the inclusion of immigrants in the universal healthcare coverage

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 785-787
Author(s):  
Albert Prats-Uribe ◽  
Sílvia Brugueras ◽  
Dolors Comet ◽  
Dolores Álamo-Junquera ◽  
LLuïsa Ortega Gutiérrez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Matched Sample ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Universal Healthcare ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
Healthcare Coverage ◽  
Universal Healthcare Coverage

Abstract In 2012, the Spanish government enforced a healthcare exclusion policy against undocumented immigrants. The newly elected government has recently derogated this policy. To analyze how this decree could have affected population health, we looked at primary health patients who would have been excluded and compared with a matched sample of non-excluded patients. Potentially excluded patients had decreased odds of: depression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyslipidaemia, heart failure and hypertension while diabetes mellitus rates were similar to non-excluded. Infectious diseases were more frequent in potentially excluded population (HIV, tuberculosis and syphilis). The exclusion of patients impedes the control of infectious diseases at a community level.

Mathematical Study of a Class of Epidemiological Models with Multiple Infectious Stages

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 259-274
Author(s):  
S. Bowong ◽  
A. Temgoua ◽  
Y. Malong ◽  
J. Mbang
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Study ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Mathematical Study ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Disease Free

AbstractThis paper deals with the mathematical analysis of a general class of epidemiological models with multiple infectious stages for the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease. We provide a theoretical study of the model. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ that determines the extinction and the persistence of the infection. We show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable whenever $\mathcal R_0 \leq 1$, while when $\mathcal R_0 \gt 1$, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium point which is globally asymptotically stable. A case study for tuberculosis (TB) is considered to numerically support the analytical results.

scholarly journals Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunxiang Cao ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Sheng Zheng ◽  
Jian Zhao ◽  
Jinfeng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Bayesian Maximum Entropy ◽  
Covariance Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Spatiotemporal Transmission

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Calibrating an SIR model for South Korea COVID-19 infections and predicting vaccination impact

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Pae
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Policy Decisions

In the span of 1.5 years, COVID-19 has caused more than 4 million deaths worldwide. To prevent such a catastrophe from reoccurring, it is necessary to test and refine current epidemiological models that impact policy decisions. Thus, we developed a deterministic SIR model to examine the long-term transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Korea. Using this model, we analyzed how vaccines would affect the number of cases. We found that a 70% vaccination coverage with a 100% effective vaccine would effectively eliminate the number of cases and herd immunity would have been obtained approximately 85 days after February 15 had there not been a reintroduction of cases.

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