Prediction Interval of Cumulative Number of Software Faults Using Multilayer Perceptron

2015 ◽  
pp. 43-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Begum Momotaz ◽  
Tadashi Dohi
Keyword(s):  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Software Faults

scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 in Pakistan

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242762
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali ◽  
Dost Muhammad Khan ◽  
Muhammad Aamir ◽  
Umair Khalil ◽  
Zardad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Better Than

Objectives Forecasting epidemics like COVID-19 is of crucial importance, it will not only help the governments but also, the medical practitioners to know the future trajectory of the spread, which might help them with the best possible treatments, precautionary measures and protections. In this study, the popular autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) will be used to forecast the cumulative number of confirmed, recovered cases, and the number of deaths in Pakistan from COVID-19 spanning June 25, 2020 to July 04, 2020 (10 days ahead forecast). Methods To meet the desire objectives, data for this study have been taken from the Ministry of National Health Service of Pakistan’s website from February 27, 2020 to June 24, 2020. Two different ARIMA models will be used to obtain the next 10 days ahead point and 95% interval forecast of the cumulative confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths. Statistical software, RStudio, with “forecast”, “ggplot2”, “tseries”, and “seasonal” packages have been used for data analysis. Results The forecasted cumulative confirmed cases, recovered, and the number of deaths up to July 04, 2020 are 231239 with a 95% prediction interval of (219648, 242832), 111616 with a prediction interval of (101063, 122168), and 5043 with a 95% prediction interval of (4791, 5295) respectively. Statistical measures i.e. root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are used for model accuracy. It is evident from the analysis results that the ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA model is better than the other time series models in terms of forecasting accuracy and hence recommended to be used for forecasting epidemics like COVID-19. Conclusion It is concluded from this study that the forecasting accuracy of ARIMA models in terms of RMSE, and MAE are better than the other time series models, and therefore could be considered a good forecasting tool in forecasting the spread, recoveries, and deaths from the current outbreak of COVID-19. Besides, this study can also help the decision-makers in developing short-term strategies with regards to the current number of disease occurrences until an appropriate medication is developed.

scholarly journals Long-Term Time Prediction of Cumulative Number of Deaths in Brazil, China, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United States: an application to COVID-19 S-shaped models

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. e749986565
Author(s):  
Marcela Portela Santos de Figueiredo ◽  
André Luiz Pinto dos Santos ◽  
Tiago Alessandro Espínola Ferreira ◽  
Maitê Priscila Lima Jota de Queiroz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Test Dataset ◽  
Time Prediction

This research aims to adjust the Gompertz and Bertalanffy nonlinear regression model for the accumulated deaths by COVID-19 in six countries Brazil, United States, Germany, Italy, China, and Spain. It employed three different performance measures in the training process, adjusted determination coefficient , Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Residual Mean Square (RMS).  The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Relative Error (RE) criterion were used to select the best model in the test dataset. On the training dataset, the Bertalanffy model was the one that best described the growth of deaths for China, while the Gompertz model was the best for Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United States. In contrast, the Bertalanffy model was the best for Spain in the test dataset, according to MAPE and RE. According to the Gompertz model, 214,100 CI (175,929;267,008) people will die in Brazil, that will reach a maximum of 1,577 with a prediction interval [1,367; 1,819] of daily new deaths at its disease peak. The nonlinear models studied described the number of deaths growth curve satisfactorily, providing parameters with practical interpretations. Evidence was found that Brazil may surpass the United States regarding the total number of deaths. Short and long-term time prediction, as well as the turning point of each country, are presented and compared to other predictive models of the literature.

Sexual Preference Classification from Gaze Behavior Data using a Multilayer Perceptron

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Chartier ◽  
P. Renaud ◽  
S. Bouchard ◽  
J. Proulx ◽  
J. L. Rouleau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Sexual Preference ◽  
Gaze Behavior

Evaluation of the Abnormal Platelet Function in von Willebrand Disease by the Blood Filtration Test

1996 ◽  
Vol 76 (03) ◽  
pp. 460-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco I Pareti ◽  
Marco Cattaneo ◽  
Luca Carpinelli ◽  
Maddalena L Zighetti ◽  
Caterina Bressi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Platelet Function ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Von Willebrand Disease ◽  
Type I ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Primary Hemostasis ◽  
Normal Platelet ◽  
Filter Test ◽  
Type 3 ◽  
Von Willebrand

SummaryWe have evaluated platelet function in different subtypes of von Willebrand disease (vWD) by pushing blood through the capillarysized channels of a glass filter. Patients, including those with type IIB vWD, showed lower than normal platelet retention and increased cumulative number of blood drops passing through the filter as a function of time. In contrast, shear-induced platelet aggregation, measured in the cone-and-plate viscometer, was paradoxically increased in type IIB patients. Treatment with l-desamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin (DDAVP) tended to normalize the filter test in patients with type I-platelet normal and type I-platelet low vWD, but infusion of a factor VUI/von Willebrand factor (vWF) concentrate lacking the largest vWF multimers was without effect in type 3 patients. Experiments with specific monoclonal antibodies demonstrated that the A1 and A3 domains of vWF, as well as the glycoproteins Ibα and Ilb-IIIa on platelets, are required for platelet retention in the filter. Thus, the test may reflect vWF function with regard to both platelet adhesion and aggregation under high shear stress, and provide relevant information on mechanisms involved in primary hemostasis.

Chasing the Anchor: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Perceptual Anchoring Deficits in Developmental Dyslexia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt D Shulver ◽  
Nicholas A Badcock
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Reading Ability ◽  
English Language ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Visual Assessment ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Eligibility Criteria

We report the results of a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the relationship between perceptual anchoring and dyslexia. Our goal was to assess the direction and degree of effect between perceptual anchoring and reading ability in typical and atypical (dyslexic) readers. We performed a literature search of experiments explicitly assessing perceptual anchoring and reading ability using PsycInfo (Ovid, 1860 to 2020), MEDLINE (Ovid, 1860 to 2019), EMBASE (Ovid, 1883 to 2019), and PubMed for all available years up to June (2020). Our eligibility criteria consisted of English-language articles and, at minimum, one experimental group identified as dyslexic - either by reading assessment at the time, or by previous diagnosis. We assessed for risk of bias using an adapted version of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Six studies were included in this review, but only five (n = 280 participants) were included in the meta-analysis (we were unable to access the necessary data for one study).The overall effect was negative, large and statistically significant; g = -0.87, 95% CI [-1.47, 0.27]: a negative effect size indicating less perceptual anchoring in dyslexic versus non-dyslexic groups. Visual assessment of funnel plot and Egger’s test suggest minimal bias but with significant heterogeneity; Q (4) = 9.70, PI (prediction interval) [-2.32, -0.58]. The primary limitation of the current review is the small number of included studies. We discuss methodological limitations, such as limited power, and how future research may redress these concerns. The variability of effect sizes appears consistent with the inherent variability within subtypes of dyslexia. This level of dispersion seems indicative of the how we define cut-off thresholds between typical reading and dyslexia populations, but also the methodological tools we use to investigate individual performance.

Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals S62798, a TAFIa inhibitor, accelerates endogenous thrombolysis in a murine model of pulmonary thromboembolism

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Sansilvestri-Morel ◽  
F Bertin ◽  
I Lapret ◽  
B Neau ◽  
V Blanc-Guillemaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Thromboembolism ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Therapeutic Option ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Active Form ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Vehicle Group ◽  
Fibrin Deposition ◽  
Minimal Effective Dose ◽  
Endogenous Fibrinolysis

Abstract   Pulmonary embolism (PE) is the third leading cause of cardiovascular death in western countries. The enhancement of fibrinolysis constitutes a promising approach to treat thrombotic diseases. In patients, venous thrombosis and thromboembolism risks are associated with increased plasma levels of TAFI (Thrombin Activatable Fibrinolysis Inhibitor) antigen as well as the active form TAFIa. S62798 is a competitive, selective and potent human TAFIa inhibitor (IC50±SD=11.2±0.4nM). It is however less potent on mouse TAFIa (IC50±SD=270±39nM). Here, we tested the ability of S62798 to enhance endogenous fibrinolysis in a mouse model of pulmonary thromboembolism. Human Tissue Factor (TF) was injected in C57Bl6 male mice. Ten minutes later, mice (n=4 to 14 per group) were treated (IV) with S62798 (from 0.01 to 100mg/kg) or vehicle (0.9% NaCl). Ten or twenty minutes (min) later, mice were anesthetized and lungs were collected, homogenized and pulmonary fibrin was quantified by ELISA. Results are expressed as ratio of geometric mean of pulmonary fibrin (μg/mL): tested treatment/ vehicle [95% confidence interval (CI)]. Ten minutes after S62798 treatment, pulmonary fibrin deposition was dose-dependently decreased with a Minimal Effective Dose of 0.04mg/kg [90% prediction interval 0.037 - 0.051] and an ED50 of 0.03mg/kg [95% CI: 0.01; 0.06]. Mice were then treated with 0.1mg/kg S62798 or vehicle (10 min after TF induction) and fibrin deposition in lungs was quantified 10 and 20 minutes post S62798 treatment. The level of pulmonary fibrin deposition was significantly decreased (p<0.0001) compared to vehicle group (ratio 0.31 [0.21; 0.45] at 10 min; 0.35 [0.24; 0.51] at 20 min). Finally, the effect of S62798 (1mg/kg) in combination with heparin was evaluated (n=10/group). When administered 10 min before TF injection, heparin (2000IU/kg) significantly (p<0.0001) decreased pulmonary fibrin level (20 min post TF: ratio 0.03 [0.01; 0.05]). When treatment was done in a curative setting (10 min post TF), heparin alone had no effect (p=0.85) on fibrin deposition (ratio 0.96 [0.65; 1.43]) whereas a similar significant (p<0.0001) decreased pulmonary fibrin deposition was observed in response to S62798 alone or associated with heparin (ratio 0.27 [0.18; 0.40] (S62798 alone) and 0.29 [0.20; 0.43] (S62798+heparin)). In this model, curative S62798 treatment, alone or associated to heparin, accelerated clot degradation by potentiating endogenous fibrinolysis and thus decreased pulmonary fibrin deposition. Due to its capacity to enhance endogenous fibrinolysis, S62798, which has completed phase I studies, is expected to be a therapeutic option for intermediate high risk PE patients on top of anticoagulants. With early recanalization, S62798 should rapidly reduce pulmonary artery pressure and resistance, with concomitant improvement in right ventricular function, preserving cardiac function, and reducing acute PE-related morbidity and mortality in these patients. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

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