Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Fourth Level ◽  
The World ◽  
America South ◽  
Four Levels

ABSTRACTObjectiveWe hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world.MethodsThis study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups.ResultsThe dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs.ConclusionsCOVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events.

scholarly journals How control and relaxation interventions and virus mutations influence the resurgence of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longbing Cao ◽  
Qing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Fast Relaxation ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
The World ◽  
Wave Patterns ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Activity Restrictions ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

After a year of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the world has been overwhelmed by COVID-19 resurgences in 2021. Resurgences usually cause longer, broader and higher waves of infection, with greater threat to societies and economies compared to first waves. They may be caused by late implementation or early relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social restrictions, ineffective interventions, or virus mutations. Here we provide quantitative evidence to characterize epidemiological differences between waves, evaluate possible causes, and predict potential trends under virus mutations. We use an event-driven dynamic epidemiological model embedded with time-dependent intervention interactions to compare two waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, and we quantify the impacts of control or relaxation interventions (called events) on wave patterns. We show the second waves in late 2020 in Germany, France and Italy could have been better contained by either carrying forward the effective interventions from their first waves or implementing better controls and timing. We also obtain the quantitative effects of enforcing or relaxing interventions on various transmissibility levels of coronavirus mutants (like delta or lambda) in the second waves and in the next 30 days. Comprehensive analyses at four levels - vertical (between waves), horizontal (across countries), what-if (scenario simulations on second waves) and future (30-day trend) - in the two 2020 waves in Germany, France and Italy show that (1) intervention fatigue (government and community reluctance to interventions), early relaxations and lagging interventions may be common reasons for the resurgences observed in many countries; (2) timely strong interventions such as full lockdown will contain resurgence; and (3) in the absence of sufficient vaccination, herd immunity and effective antiviral pharmaceutical treatments and with more infectious mutations, the widespread early or fast relaxation of interventions including public activity restrictions will result in a COVID-19 resurgence.

Globalization and interconfessional communications

2001 ◽  
pp. 13-17
Author(s):  
Serhii Viktorovych Svystunov
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Modern World ◽  
The World ◽  
Target Set ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Rapid Appearance

In the 21st century, the world became a sign of globalization: global conflicts, global disasters, global economy, global Internet, etc. The Polish researcher Casimir Zhigulsky defines globalization as a kind of process, that is, the target set of characteristic changes that develop over time and occur in the modern world. These changes in general are reduced to mutual rapprochement, reduction of distances, the rapid appearance of a large number of different connections, contacts, exchanges, and to increase the dependence of society in almost all spheres of his life from what is happening in other, often very remote regions of the world.

From the Tower of London to the Thomas More Society of Buenos Aires: “Give me thy grace, good Lord, to set the world at nought”

Moreana ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 42 (Number 164) (4) ◽  
pp. 187-206
Author(s):  
Clare M. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Short History ◽  
Thomas More ◽  
Tower Of London ◽  
Hebrew Poetry ◽  
Prayer Book ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Book Of Hours ◽  
Almost All

The Thomas More Society of Buenos Aires begins or ends almost all its events by reciting in both English and Spanish a prayer written by More in the margins of his Book of Hours probably while he was a prisoner in the Tower of London. After a short history of what is called Thomas More’s Prayer Book, the author studies the prayer as a poem written in the form of a psalm according to the structure of Hebrew poetry, and looks at the poem’s content as a psalm of lament.

Auto Markets in the World and Strategy of Japan’s Companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1003-1008
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Matsuoka ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Auto Industry ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Automatic Driving ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Made In

In the world auto market, top three companies are VW(Volkswagen), Runault-Nissan-Mistubishi, and Toyota. About some selected countries and areas, China, England, Italy, Australia, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Sweden, USA, Brazil, UAE, Japan, Vietnam and Thailand are more competitive. However, the situation is different. Seeing monopolistic market countries and areas, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, France, India, and Pakistan, in particular, the influence of Japan to Taiwan, India, and Pakistan is very big. But in Korea and France, their own companies’ brands occupy the market. In Japan domestic market, the overall situation is competitive. Almost all vehicles made in Japan are Japanese brand. From now on, we have to note the development of electric vehicle (EV) and other new technologies such as automatic driving and connected car. That is because they will give a great impact on the auto industry and market of Japan. Now Japan’s auto industry is going to be consolidated into three groups, Honda, Toyota group, and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi group for seeking the scale merit of economy. Therefore, I will pay attention to the worldwide development of EV and other new technologies and the reorganization of auto companies groups.

The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Children‘s Behaviors and Language

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 796-806
Author(s):  
Sana M Kamal ◽  
Ali Al-Samydai ◽  
Rudaina Othman Yousif ◽  
Talal Aburjai
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Child Psychology ◽  
Simple Random Sample ◽  
Community Pharmacies ◽  
The World ◽  
Female Children ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the world, which considered a relative of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), with possibility of transmission from animals to human and effect each of health and economic. Several preventative strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions have been used to slow down the spread of COVID-19. The questionnaire contained 36 questions regarding the impact of COVID-19 quarantine on children`s behaviors and language have been distributed online (Google form). Data collected after asking parents about their children behavior during quarantine, among the survey completers (n=469), 42.3% were female children, and 57.7 were male children. Results showed that quarantine has an impact on children`s behaviors and language, where stress and isolationism has a higher effect, while social relations had no impact. The majority of the respondents (75.0%) had confidence that community pharmacies can play an important role in helping families in protection their children`s behaviors and language as they made the highest contact with pharmacists during quarantine. One of the main recommendations that could be applied to help parents protection and improvement their children`s behaviors and language in quarantine condition base on simple random sample opinion is increasing the role of community pharmacies inpatient counseling and especially towards children after giving courses to pharmacists in child psychology and behavior. This could be helpful to family to protect their children, from any changing in them behaviors and language in such conditions in the future if the world reface such the same problem.

Possible preventive measures against the spread of COVID-19- A Review article

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 475-481
Author(s):  
Jotheeswari P ◽  
Yuvaraj M ◽  
Balaji K ◽  
Gunapriya Raghunath ◽  
Kumaresan M
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Antiviral Drug ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Thought Process ◽  
Precautionary Measure ◽  
Online Tools ◽  
The World ◽  
Base Of Support ◽  
A Current ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

COVID-19 is a current sensational and dangerous threat that affects millions of people across the world. As the day progresses the rate of growth of COVID-19 drastically increases. No vaccine or specific antiviral drug are active against corona, therefore, preventing the exposure to the virus is the base of support against its spread across the world. Despite the implementation of preventive measures, the rate of virus-infected cases progressively increases which stimulates our thought process to raise a question, whether the preventive measures that we follow are effective against the spread of COVID-19 infection. Evidence from previous literature obtained from various online tools implies multiple preventive measures that should be followed and also illustrates their mechanism of action against the active spread of COVID-19 infection. According to the results from the evidence, we can identify the gold standard preventive measure among the described preventive measures. The precautionary measure encompasses both pharmaceutical interventions and non- pharmaceutical interventions among which non-pharmaceutical measures are superior in the prevention of the developing pandemic. Among the non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing is the paramount to other measures in the mitigation of the spread of viral infection.

ON EVALUATION OF THE ROLE OF THERMAL AND WIND FACTORS FOR A PHYSICAL MODEL OF THE WORLD OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION SYSTEM

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-91
Author(s):  
V. G. Neiman
Keyword(s):  
Physical Model ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Circulation System ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Conceptual Foundations

The main content of the work consists of certain systematization and addition of longexisting, but eventually deformed and partly lost qualitative ideas about the role of thermal and wind factors that determine the physical mechanism of the World Ocean’s General Circulation System (OGCS). It is noted that the conceptual foundations of the theory of the OGCS in one form or another are contained in the works of many well-known hydrophysicists of the last century, but the aggregate, logically coherent description of the key factors determining the physical model of the OGCS in the public literature is not so easy to find. An attempt is made to clarify and concretize some general ideas about the two key blocks that form the basis of an adequate physical model of the system of oceanic water masses motion in a climatic scale. Attention is drawn to the fact that when analyzing the OGCS it is necessary to take into account not only immediate but also indirect effects of thermal and wind factors on the ocean surface. In conclusion, it is noted that, in the end, by the uneven flow of heat to the surface of the ocean can be explained the nature of both external and almost all internal factors, in one way or another contributing to the excitation of the general, or climatic, ocean circulation.

The Indian Yearbook of Comparative Law 2016

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Law ◽  
Comparative Law ◽  
Public Law ◽  
Corporate Law ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
Reading Materials ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Day By Day

The contributions, by eminent scholars, included in The Indian Yearbook of Comparative Law 2016 discuss the discipline of comparative law in India and is of immense importance for legal scholarship around the globe. Unlike the West, that has covered almost all aspects of law from private to public law matters of national, transnational, and international relevance, not much work has been done in the discipline of Comparative law in India. In view of the countries and people of the world coming closer day by day, the need for the comparative study of law is becoming a sine qua non for participation in almost all transactions among people living across the globe. The attempt made with this volume will not only meet the much-awaited need of having reading materials on comparative law, but will also create a forum for legal scholars around the world to express their views on different aspects of law in comparative perspective. The issues covered her range from comparative legal methods to comparison in different aspects of law in different countries, as well as transnational and international bodies such as European Union and the various bodies of the United Nations. The issues covered include corporate law, constitutional law, human rights, environmental law, globalization, democracy, privatization, and several other contemporary legal issues.

scholarly journals The Diagnosis and Therapy of Degenerative Knee Joint Disease: Expert Consensus from the Chinese Pain Medicine Panel

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Huang ◽  
Yan-Qing Liu ◽  
Li-Shuang Liang ◽  
Xue-Wu Lin ◽  
Tao Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
Joint Disease ◽  
Knee Joints ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Pain Specialist ◽  
Chinese Association ◽  
The One ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Based Medicine

At present, there are many constantly updated guidelines and consensuses on the diagnosis and treatment of osteoarthritis both at home and abroad. The recommendations established using methods of evidence-based medicine has experienced strict research on controlling bias and promoting reproduction rate. As a result, the previous evidence was reevaluated, and a lot of changes were provoked in the diagnosis and treatment concept of osteoarthritis. However, several methods not recommended by foreign guidelines are still in use in the current clinical practice in China. On the one hand, Chinese experts have not reached extensive consensus on whether it is necessary to make changes according to foreign guidelines. On the other hand, almost all the current relevant guidelines are on osteoarthritis, but the lesions around knee joints which, as a whole, bear the largest weight in human body, cannot be ignored. For this purpose, Chinese Association for the Study of Pain (CASP) organized some leading experts to formulate this Chinese Pain Specialist Consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of degenerative knee osteoarthritis (DKOA) in combination with the guidelines in foreign countries and the expert experience of clinical practice in China. The consensus, which includes the definition, pathophysiology, epidemiology, clinical manifestation, diagnostic criteria, and treatments of DKOA, is intended to be used by first-line doctors, including pain physicians to manage patients with DKOA.

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