Dynamic Global Vegetation Modeling: Quantifying Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Large-Scale Environmental Change

2007 ◽  
pp. 175-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Colin Prentice ◽  
Alberte Bondeau ◽  
Wolfgang Cramer ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Thomas Hickler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Vegetation Modeling ◽  
Global Vegetation

scholarly journals Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America

2012 ◽  
Vol 367 (1586) ◽  
pp. 222-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Medvigy ◽  
Paul R. Moorcroft
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Biomass Dynamics ◽  
Constrained Model ◽  
Biosphere Model

Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

scholarly journals Developing common protocols to measure tundra herbivory across spatial scales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel C Barrio ◽  
Dorothée Ehrich ◽  
Eeva M Soininen ◽  
Virve Ravolainen ◽  
C Guillermo Bueno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Tundra Ecosystem ◽  
Landscape Scales ◽  
Herbivore Communities

Understanding and predicting large-scale ecological responses to global environmental change requires comparative studies across geographic scales with coordinated efforts and standardized methodologies. We designed, applied and assessed standardized protocols to measure tundra herbivory at three spatial scales: plot, site (habitat), and study area (landscape). The plot and site-level protocols were tested in the field during summers 2014-2015 at eleven sites, nine of them comprising warming experimental plots included in the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). The study area protocols were assessed during 2014-2018 at 24 study areas across the Arctic. Our protocols provide comparable and easy-to-implement methods for assessing the intensity of invertebrate herbivory within ITEX plots and for characterizing vertebrate herbivore communities at larger spatial scales. We discuss methodological constraints and make recommendations for how these protocols can be used and how sampling effort can be optimized to obtain comparable estimates of herbivory, both at ITEX sites and at large landscape scales. The application of these protocols across the tundra biome will allow characterizing and comparing herbivore communities across tundra sites and at ecologically relevant spatial scales, providing an important step towards a better understanding of tundra ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change.

A Multi-proxy assessment of the impact of climate change on Late Holocene (ca 4500-3800 BP) Native American villages of the Georgia coast

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carey James Garland ◽  
Victor D Thompson ◽  
Matthew C Sanger ◽  
Karen Y Smith ◽  
Fred T Andrus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Native American ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Archaic Period ◽  
Late Archaic ◽  
Shell Ring ◽  
Shell Rings ◽  
Georgia Coast ◽  
The Impact

Circular shell rings along the Atlantic Coast of southeastern North America are the remnants of some of the earliest villages that emerged during the Late Archaic Period (5000 – 3000 BP). Many of these villages, however, were abandoned during the Terminal Late Archaic Period (ca 3800 – 3000 BP). Here, we combine Bayesian chronological modeling with multiple environmental proxies to understand the nature and timing of environmental change associated with the emergence and abandonment of shell ring villages on Sapleo Island, Georgia. Our Bayesian models indicate that Native Americans occupied the three Sapelo shell rings at varying times with some generational overlap. By the end of the complex’s occupation, only Ring III was occupied before abandonment ca. 3845 BP. Ring III also consists of statistically smaller oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) that people harvested from less saline estuaries compared to earlier occupations. These data, when integrated with recent tree ring analyses, show a clear pattern of environmental instability throughout the period in which the rings were occupied. We argue that as the climate became unstable around 4300 BP, aggregation at shell ring villages provided a way to effectively manage fisheries that are highly sensitive to environmental change. However, with the eventual collapse of oyster fisheries and subsequent rebound in environmental conditions ca. 3800 BP, people dispersed from shell rings, and shifted to non-marine subsistence economies and other types of settlements. This study provides the most comprehensive evidence correlations between large-scale environmental change and societal transformations on the Georgia coast during the Late Archaic period.

scholarly journals Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burnt area

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1449-1459 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. N. Fletcher ◽  
L. E. O. C. Aragão ◽  
A. Lima ◽  
Y. Shimabukuro ◽  
P. Friedlingstein
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fractal Properties ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. Current methods for modelling burnt area in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation, but undeniably useful for modelling specific, small-scale burns. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia in 2005, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. This model is intended for predicting large-scale burnt area rather than looking at individual fire events. A simple parameterization of a tapered fractal distribution is calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burnt area map. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the total area burnt (16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using the MODIS MCD14ML active fire product, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but the magnitude of the differences between these estimates and the GFED3.1 burnt area products varies per continent.

scholarly journals Assessing the large-scale impacts of environmental change using a coupled hydrology and soil erosion model

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 687-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽  
Wilco Terink ◽  
Joris de Vente
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Vegetation Development ◽  
Erosion Model ◽  
Complete Representation ◽  
Large Catchment

Abstract. Assessing the impacts of environmental change on soil erosion and sediment yield at the large catchment scale remains one of the main challenges in soil erosion modelling studies. Here, we present a process-based soil erosion model, based on the integration of the Morgan–Morgan–Finney erosion model in a daily based hydrological model. The model overcomes many of the limitations of previous large-scale soil erosion models, as it includes a more complete representation of crucial processes like surface runoff generation, dynamic vegetation development, and sediment deposition, and runs at the catchment scale with a daily time step. This makes the model especially suited for the evaluation of the impacts of environmental change on soil erosion and sediment yield at regional scales and over decadal periods. The model was successfully applied in a large catchment in southeastern Spain. We demonstrate the model's capacity to perform impact assessments of environmental change scenarios, specifically simulating the scenario impacts of intra- and inter-annual variations in climate, land management, and vegetation development on soil erosion and sediment yield.

The Human Dimensions of Global Change

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Liverman ◽  
Brent Yarnal
Keyword(s):  
Global Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Human Dimensions ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Global Environmental

The human–environment condition has emerged as one of the central issues of the new millennium, especially as it has become apparent that human activity is transforming nature at a global scale in both systemic and cumulative ways. Originating with concerns about potential climate warming, the global environmental change agenda rapidly enlarged to include changes in structure and function of the earth’s natural systems, notably those systems critical for life, and the policy implications of these changes, especially focused on the coupled human–environment system. Recognition of the unprecedented pace, magnitude, and spatial scale of global change, and of the pivotal role of humankind in creating and responding to it, has led to the emergence of a worldwide, interdisciplinary effort to understand the human dimensions of global change. The term “global change” now encompasses a range of research issues including those relating to economic, political, and cultural globalization, but in this chapter we limit our focus to global environmental change and to the field that has become formally known as the human dimensions of global (or global environmental) change. We also focus mainly on the work of geographers rather than attempting to review the whole human dimensions research community. Intellectually, geography is well positioned to contribute to global environmental change research (Liverman 1999). The large-scale human transformation of the planet through activities such as agriculture, deforestation, water diversion, fossil fuel use, and urbanization, and the impacts of these on living conditions through changes in, for example, climate and biodiversity, has highlighted the importance of scholarship that analyzes the human–environmental relationship and can inform policy. Geography is one of the few disciplines that has historically claimed human–environment relationships as a definitional component of itself (Glacken 1967; Marsh 1864) and has fostered a belief in and reward system for engaging integrative approaches to problem solving (Golledge 2002; Turner 2002). Moreover, global environmental change is intimately spatial and draws upon geography-led remote sensing and geographic information science (Liverman et al. 1998). Geographers anticipated the emergence of current global change concerns (Thomas et al. 1956; Burton et al. 1978) and were seminal in the development of the multidisciplinary programs of study into the human dimensions of global change.

scholarly journals Terrestrial Ecosystem Impacts of Sulfide Mining: Scope of Issues for the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Minnesota, USA

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee E. Frelich
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mine Drainage ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Migration Routes ◽  
Metal Mining ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Ecosystem Impacts ◽  
Mining Impacts

Large-scale metal mining operations are planned or underway in many locations across the boreal forest biome in North America, Europe, and Asia. Although many published analyses of mining impacts on water quality in boreal landscapes are available, there is little guidance regarding terrestrial impacts. Scoping of potential impacts of Cu-Ni exploration and mining in sulfide ores are presented for the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW), Minnesota USA, an area of mostly boreal forest on thin soils and granitic bedrock. Although the primary footprint of the proposed mines would be outside the BWCAW, displacement and fragmentation of forest ecosystems would cause spatial propagation of effects into a secondary footprint within the wilderness. Potential negative impacts include disruption of population dynamics for wildlife species with migration routes, or metapopulations of plant species that span the wilderness boundary, and establishment of invasive species outside the wilderness that could invade the wilderness. Due to linkages between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, acid mine drainage can impact lowland forests, which are highly dependent on chemistry of water flowing through them. The expected extremes in precipitation and temperature due to warming climate can also interact with mining impacts to reduce the resilience of forests to disturbance caused by mining.

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