Uncertainty Interval Temporal Sequences Extraction

2012 ◽  
pp. 259-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asma Ben Zakour ◽  
Sofian Maabout ◽  
Mohamed Mosbah ◽  
Marc Sistiaga
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Temporal Sequences

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction of MOSFETs via the Takagi–Sugeno Framework

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2135
Author(s):  
Marcin Witczak ◽  
Marcin Mrugalski ◽  
Bogdan Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Field Effect Transistors ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Takagi Sugeno

The paper presents a new method of predicting the remaining useful life of technical devices. The proposed soft computing approach bridges the gap between analytical and data-driven health prognostic approaches. Whilst the former ones are based on the classical exponential shape of degradation, the latter ones learn the degradation behavior from the observed historical data. As a result of the proposed fusion, a practical method for calculating components’ remaining useful life is proposed. Contrarily to the approaches presented in the literature, the proposed ensemble of analytical and data-driven approaches forms the uncertainty interval containing an expected remaining useful life. In particular, a Takagi–Sugeno multiple models-based framework is used as a data-driven approach while an exponential curve fitting on-line approach serves as an analytical one. Unlike conventional data-driven methods, the proposed approach is designed on the basis of the historical data that apart from learning is also applied to support the diagnostic decisions. Finally, the entire scheme is used to predict power Metal Oxide Field Effect Transistors’ (MOSFETs) health status. The status of the currently operating MOSFET is determined taking into consideration the knowledge obtained from the preceding MOSFETs, which went through the run-to-failure process. Finally, the proposed approach is validated with the application of real data obtained from the NASA Ames Prognostics Data Repository.

scholarly journals The Balloon-Borne Investigation of Temperature and Speed of Electrons in the Corona (BITSE): Mission Description and Preliminary Results

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Gopalswamy ◽  
J. Newmark ◽  
S. Yashiro ◽  
P. Mäkelä ◽  
N. Reginald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heliocentric Distance ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Flow Speed ◽  
Science Data ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Heliospheric Observatory ◽  
Flash Storage ◽  
Goddard Space Flight Center ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Polarization Camera

AbstractWe report on the Balloon-borne Investigation of Temperature and Speed of Electrons in the corona (BITSE) mission launched recently to observe the solar corona from $\approx 3$ ≈ 3  Rs to 15 Rs at four wavelengths (393.5, 405.0, 398.7, and 423.4 nm). The BITSE instrument is an externally occulted single stage coronagraph developed at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in collaboration with the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). BITSE used a polarization camera that provided polarization and total brightness images of size $1024 \times 1024$ 1024 × 1024 pixels. The Wallops Arc Second Pointer (WASP) system developed at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) was used for Sun pointing. The coronagraph and WASP were mounted on a gondola provided by WFF and launched from the Fort Sumner, New Mexico station of Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility (CSBF) on September 18, 2019. BITSE obtained 17,060 coronal images at a float altitude of $\approx \mbox{128,000}$ ≈ 128,000 feet ($\approx 39$ ≈ 39  km) over a period of $\approx 4$ ≈ 4  hrs. BITSE flight software was based on NASA’s core Flight System, which was designed to help develop flight quality software. We used EVTM (Ethernet Via Telemetry) to download science data during operations; all images were stored on board using flash storage. At the end of the mission, all data were recovered and analyzed. Preliminary analysis shows that BITSE imaged the solar minimum corona with the equatorial streamers on the east and west limbs. The narrow streamers observed by BITSE are in good agreement with the geometric properties obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) coronagraphs in the overlapping physical domain. In spite of the small signal-to-noise ratio ($\approx 14$ ≈ 14 ) we were able to obtain the temperature and flow speed of the western steamer. In the heliocentric distance range 4 – 7 Rs on the western streamer, we obtained a temperature of $\approx 1.0\pm 0.3$ ≈ 1.0 ± 0.3  MK and a flow speed of $\approx 260$ ≈ 260  km s−1 with a large uncertainty interval.

The Relation of Scent-Marking, Olfactory Investigation, and Specific Postures in the Isolation-Induced Fighting of Rats

Behaviour ◽  
1976 ◽  
Vol 56 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 286-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
David B. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Scent Marking ◽  
Functional Roles ◽  
Threat Behavior ◽  
Typical Sequence ◽  
Strange Male ◽  
Familiar Environment ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Temporal Sequences ◽  
Defensive Mechanism

AbstractThe temporal sequences of acts and postures of rats during tests for isolation-induced fighting were recorded and analyzed. Scent-marking and olfactory investigation, which have been related to fighting by previous studies, were particularly emphasized. From the data a model was constructed for the sequence of behaviors which lead to and maintain isolation-induced fighting. The typical sequence begins with olfactory investigation and scent-marking; the home rat initially investigates the intruder, and the intruder initially investigates the cage. The combination of olfactory perception of a strange male and a familiar environment, it was suggested, serves to trigger an offensive mechanism in the home rat which leads to bite-and-kick attack and offensive sideways posture. The pain of the attack then triggers defensive mechanism in the intruder rat which leads to defensive upright posture and submissive posture. Whereas the functional role of the bite-and-kick attack appears to be simply the infliction of pain and elicitation of defense in the intruder, the function of offensive sideways posture as a threat behavior may be more complex. It is possible that it becomes a conditioned pain stimulus due to its close temporal pairing with bite-and-kick attack, but it is more likely that it produces defense by a process of sensitization. In any case, following the initial attack, the offensive sideways posture continues to elicit defensive behavior by the intruder even when there are no further attacks. The functional roles of the defensive postures were interpreted as positioning the intruder in such a way that the home rat cannot assume the aggressive posture from which attack is launched. Scent-marking behavior was consistent within strains, within individuals, and across different types of measures (accumulation of scent-marking marking material and performance of the stereotyped scent-marking act, crawl-over-dish). Amount of scent-marking was not correlated with attack, however, and its role in isolation-induced fighting remains unclear. In parallel to findings in other rodents, it was observed that scent-marking was diminished in animals after they had been subjected to attack.

scholarly journals Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon CHD in England: a modelling study

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 3431-3439
Author(s):  
Paraskevi Seferidi ◽  
Anthony A Laverty ◽  
Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard ◽  
Maria Guzman-Castillo ◽  
Brendan Collins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Policy ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Sugar Price ◽  
Policy Model ◽  
Sweetened Beverages ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Economic Circumstance ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

AbstractObjectiveAn industry levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in the UK in 2018. One year later, Brexit is likely to change the UK trade regime with potential implications for sugar price. We modelled the effect of potential changes in sugar price due to Brexit on SSB levy impacts upon CHD mortality and inequalities.DesignWe modelled a baseline SSB levy scenario; an SSB levy under ‘soft’ Brexit, where the UK establishes a free trading agreement with the EU; and an SSB levy under ‘hard’ Brexit, in which World Trade Organization tariffs are applied. We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the effect of each scenario on CHD deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained, stratified by age, sex and socio-economic circumstance, in 2021.SettingEngland.SubjectsAdults aged 25 years or older.ResultsThe SSB levy was associated with approximately 370 (95 % uncertainty interval 220, 560) fewer CHD deaths and 4490 (2690, 6710) life-years gained in 2021. Associated reductions in CHD mortality were 4 and 8 % greater under ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ Brexit scenarios, respectively. The SSB levy was associated with approximately 110 (50, 190) fewer CHD deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with 60 (20, 100) in the most affluent, under ‘hard’ Brexit.ConclusionsOur study found the SSB levy resilient to potential effects of Brexit upon sugar price. Even under ‘hard’ Brexit, the SSB levy would yield benefits for CHD mortality and inequalities. Brexit negotiations should deliver a fiscal and regulatory environment which promotes population health.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of a domestic violence and abuse training and support programme in primary care in the real world: updated modelling based on an MRC phase IV observational pragmatic implementation study

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. e021256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Estela Capelas Barbosa ◽  
Talitha Irene Verhoef ◽  
Steve Morris ◽  
Francesca Solmi ◽  
Medina Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Training And Support ◽  
Domestic Violence And Abuse ◽  
Service Perspective ◽  
Health Service Perspective

ObjectivesTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the implementation of the Identification and Referral to Improve Safety (IRIS) programme using up-to-date real-world information on costs and effectiveness from routine clinical practice. A Markov model was constructed to estimate mean costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of IRIS versus usual care per woman registered at a general practice from a societal and health service perspective with a 10-year time horizon.Design and settingCost–utility analysis in UK general practices, including data from six sites which have been running IRIS for at least 2 years across England.ParticipantsBased on the Markov model, which uses health states to represent possible outcomes of the intervention, we stipulated a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 women aged 16 years or older.InterventionsThe IRIS trial was a randomised controlled trial that tested the effectiveness of a primary care training and support intervention to improve the response to women experiencing domestic violence and abuse, and found it to be cost-effective. As a result, the IRIS programme has been implemented across the UK, generating data on costs and effectiveness outside a trial context.ResultsThe IRIS programme saved £14 per woman aged 16 years or older registered in general practice (95% uncertainty interval −£151 to £37) and produced QALY gains of 0.001 per woman (95% uncertainty interval −0.005 to 0.006). The incremental net monetary benefit was positive both from a societal and National Health Service perspective (£42 and £22, respectively) and the IRIS programme was cost-effective in 61% of simulations using real-life data when the cost-effectiveness threshold was £20 000 per QALY gained as advised by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.ConclusionThe IRIS programme is likely to be cost-effective and cost-saving from a societal perspective in the UK and cost-effective from a health service perspective, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these results, reflected in the large uncertainty intervals.

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