Plummeting Oil Prices and Oil Demand

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-32
Author(s):  
Bhaskar Bagchi ◽  
Susmita Chatterjee ◽  
Raktim Ghosh ◽  
Dhrubaranjan Dandapat
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Demand

Venezuela's oil sector faces rising challenges

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Heavy Crude ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.

Supply cuts will not offset the drop in oil demand

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Demand ◽  
Oil Demand

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Demand destruction to dampen oil prices

Oil demand lifts prices, but further upside is limited

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Technologies ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Common ◽  
Oil Demand

Significance Rising Chinese imports and falling inventories point to demand exceeding supply at present. However, concerns over how quickly, reliably and fully oil consumption will recover cloud the outlook for prices, alongside doubts over the ability of OPEC+ to maintain supply restraint in the face of rising output by non-OPEC producers. Impacts Higher oil prices will bring some fiscal relief to oil-producing countries, but the financial position of many will remain weak. The price increase is unlikely to reverse the recent pivot of European oil majors towards more sustainable technologies. OPEC+ cooperation will continue given the common interest in stable prices, but less cohesion will moderate the group's ambition. Libyan oil output, which had resumed 2019 levels, is facing more disruption and the prospects for higher Iranian output remain uncertain.

The global business cycle and speculative demand for crude oil

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabete Neves ◽  
Vítor Oliveira ◽  
Joana Leite ◽  
Carla Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Demand Elasticity ◽  
Global Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Oil Inventories ◽  
Speculative Demand

PurposeThis paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks.FindingsFrom the output of the authors’ structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors’ conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others.Originality/valueAs far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil.

India–Africa Oil Partnership in the New Millennium

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-214
Author(s):  
Sankalp Gurjar
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gradual Expansion ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
New Millennium

The nature of relationship between India–Africa has been simultaneously asymmetric as well as complementary. It is reflected in Indo-African oil relationship. In this oil relationship, India and Africa gain and loose at different period of time depending on the global oil prices. Higher oil prices put India at a disadvantageous position, whereas lower oil prices are not beneficial for oil producing and exporting states of Africa. Over the years, India has built oil ties, among others, with Nigeria, Sudan, South Sudan and Angola. By and large, Indo-African oil relations have witnessed a steady progress and gradual expansion in the new millennium. India’s quest for oil in Africa faces difficult challenge from China. In all likelihood, India’s rising oil demand and quest to diversify oil basket, geographically, will further strengthen the India–Africa oil relations.

scholarly journals Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaolu Zou ◽  
Kwong Wing Chau
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Real ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Demand

This study aims to test the effects of changes in international crude oil prices on changes in crude oil and hydropower use from 1965 to 2016. We suggest a cointegration relationship between the consumption of coal, crude oil, and hydropower and the real crude oil price. The real price is weakly exogenous for the long-run relationship and has impacted energy consumption accordingly. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of oil use is 0.460. Our estimate suggests a positive oil price–oil use relationship in China, which is dramatically different from many previous studies but is consistent with a few past studies. The growth in external oil prices may lead to a long-run increase in hydropower use in China, with a long-run price elasticity of 0.242. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of coal use is −0.930. Hence, increased oil and hydropower use could make up the energy supply–demand gap left over by the decreased coal use. Strictly planned domestic fuel prices and rapidly growing family incomes should diminish the negative effect of external oil prices on domestic crude oil demand. In the long run, given a strictly managed energy price, the growth in external oil prices is not likely to noticeably restrain the domestic oil demand or lead to a dramatic increase in coal use. We suggest that the large-scale development and utilization of hydropower may be inappropriate. Coal utilization policies must be reviewed. The appropriate increase in clean coal consumption could reduce the consumption of crude oil and hydropower; meanwhile, carbon emissions will not increase.

Prospects for Non-OPEC Oil Supply

1995 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 433-452
Author(s):  
Seán O'Dell
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Hostile Environments ◽  
Competitive Nature ◽  
Expected Increase

Because of the non-competitive nature of world oil markets (due primarily to the presence of OPEC), non-OPEC countries will have to meet a significant share of the expected increase in world oil demand over the next fifteen years. But this is likely to occur only if the price of oil rises enough to justify the needed investment in the exploration for and the development of increasingly more expensive oil, found in increasingly more hostile environments. If oil prices do not rise, the call on OPEC could increase dramatically, an increase which OPEC members may not be willing or able to satisfy.

Conflict and cooperation in OPEC: prospects for the next decade

1978 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Jabber
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Production Rates ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
International Economic Relations ◽  
Oil Demand

Since 1973 the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has emerged as a working governmental cartel with formidable leverage over international economic relations and Middle Eastern politics. Over the next decade, OPEC will continue to operate as an effective cartel able to maintain real oil prices at least at or near the levels achieved in 1973–74. Expected world oil demand levels will be high enough to obviate substantial economic threats to the Organization's cohesion. Nor are potentially contentious political or ideological issues likely to be pursued by major OPEC members with sufficient vigor to jeopardize the cartel. Of cardinal importance is the fact that only Saudi Arabia is in a position to break the cartel unilaterally. Such Saudi action is highly improbable in the medium term, though after 1980 Saudi leverage will increase and raise with it the utility of oil-production rates as a diplomatic weapon.

scholarly journals Scenario Analysis for Future Oil Demand and Supply on the Horizon of 2022

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Hasan Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Shale Oil ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Opposite View ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Oil Production Technology

Abstract This study indicates signs of recovery in the oil price beyond 2020 and predicts oil prices will reach $80 in 2022. This scenario posits an opposite view to a large number of experts who believe that oil prices will remain low for a long time. The second less preferred scenario predicts oil prices of $60 in 2022 due to a big spread in shale oil production technology worldwide, combined with a significant increase in oil production costs.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document