Venezuela's oil sector faces rising challenges

Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.

Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.


Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.


Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance While Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, oil is its largest export and the government's primary source of revenue. The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government to introduce import controls to support the balance of payments and cut public spending to reduce the budget deficit. However, rising levels of oil production have softened the blow of falling oil prices. The government hopes to continue this trend by attracting new investment into the oil sector, despite the downturn in the world market. Impacts The perilous state of the balance of payments and public finances will increase the need to attract new foreign investment into oil. Chinese oil companies are likely to increase their presence in Ecuador, reflecting trends elsewhere in Latin America. Development of the oil fields previously integrated into Yasuni/ITT should increase total oil output significantly from 2018-19.


Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.


Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.


Significance Since independence in 2011 -- and during the preceding six years of autonomy -- the budget has depended overwhelmingly on oil revenues. However, production has contracted significantly since the outbreak of conflict in 2013, and revenues have suffered further from declining global oil prices. With savings and credit almost entirely depleted, the government needs new revenue to fund budget shortfalls, and is looking to the only reliable income source it has known. Impacts Logistics, equipment and technical issues will further complicate efforts to boost production. Plans to build a domestic refinery could ease domestic fuel shortages, but may face delays. Budget revenue targets will be missed, putting pressure on expenditure requirements.


Subject The incoming administration's economic promises. Significance Investor and popular confidence in the incoming Muhammadu Buhari administration are high. The new president's perceived incorruptibility is seen as the antidote to President Goodluck Jonathan's ineffectiveness. However, a lack of clarity over how the All Progressives Congress (APC) can fund its economic policies remains a source of uncertainty, compounded by low oil prices. Impacts Nigeria's debt levels are relatively low, although the government may be forced to dramatically increase borrowing. However, the sharp devaluation of the currency will complicate the CBN's goal of maintaining single-digit inflation over the medium term. Slowing non-oil sector growth reflects the depreciation of the oil-linked naira and curbed public investment.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Innocent Otache

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore agripreneurship development as a strategy for economic growth and development. Design/methodology/approach Though a few related literature were reviewed, this paper relies heavily on the author’s viewpoint regarding how Nigeria can grow and develop its economy through agripreneurship development. Findings The present economic challenges that Nigeria is facing are blamed on overdependence on the oil sector, bad governance, corruption, leadership failure, policy inconsistency, overdependence on imported goods and ostensible neglect of the agricultural sector. Also, policymakers, economic analysts and the government have advocated strongly for diversification of the economy. Besides, there is a consensus among scholars, economic analysts and policymakers that “agriculture is the answer.” Research limitations/implications This paper addresses specifically one sector of the economy – the agricultural sector. On the other hand, economic crisis needs to be addressed holistically by resolving specific issues that confront different sectors of the economy. Practical implications This paper has some insightful policy and practical implications for the Nigerian Government and Nigerians. The government and Nigerians need to take practical steps to grow and develop the economy. On the part of the government, apart from the need to transform the agricultural sector by allocating enough funds to it, the government should establish well-equipped agripreneurship development centers and organize periodically agripreneurship development programmes for the main purpose of training and developing both current and potential agripreneurs who will be able to apply today’s agricultural techniques and practices which involve a great deal of creativity and innovation for a successful agribusiness. The federal government should integrate agripreneurship education into Nigeria’s education system. Similarly, the Nigerian people, particularly the youths or graduates should be encouraged to choose agribusiness as a career. Originality/value While previous papers have offered different solutions to the current economic crisis that Nigeria is experiencing, ranging from economic to structural reforms, this paper differs significantly from others by recommending specifically agripreneurship development as a strategy for revamping Nigeria’s economy from its current recession. Moreover, there is a dearth of literature on agripreneurship and agripreneurship development. This paper therefore fills the literature gap.


2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 438-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antulio Rosales

AbstractScholarship in international political economy (IPE) has noted the rise of resource nationalism in since the early 2000s. Despite the increased presence of state regulation in the resource sector, resource nationalism has not been incompatible with foreign investment. This article contributes to better understand resource nationalist policies that emerged in recent years and offers new theoretical insights to explain state-IOC relations by integrating obsolescing bargaining theories and constructivist approaches. Drawing on the case of Venezuela, this article explains how the Chávez regime pursued a hybrid model of control and welcoming of investments in the oil sector. The article argues that both bargaining insights and ideational considerations are important in explaining this model. In the context of high oil prices and sunk investments, it is unsurprising that a leftist government would seek to renegotiate contracts to seek better deals from extractive companies. Yet, focusing exclusively on those incentives misses important ideational drivers for the government to keep investors in the country. For Chávez's government, effecting changes in the oil policy was possible after waging an intense battle with its NOC, PDVSA, over control. Association with foreign investment became crucial to build its socialist model and to control its own company.


Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document