The global business cycle and speculative demand for crude oil

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabete Neves ◽  
Vítor Oliveira ◽  
Joana Leite ◽  
Carla Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Demand Elasticity ◽  
Global Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Oil Inventories ◽  
Speculative Demand

PurposeThis paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks.FindingsFrom the output of the authors’ structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors’ conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others.Originality/valueAs far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil.

Sensitivities of Southeast Asian industries to the local and global business cycles

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Javed Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regression ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Global Business ◽  
Asymmetric Reaction ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThis paper estimates the sensitivities of the output of the manufacturing industries of the four Southeast countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore) to both the country-specific and global business cycle fluctuations. The study investigates whether the business cycle exposures of these industries differ to their nature classified as producing durable or nondurable goods and also to booms and recessions.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data on sectoral manufacturing production indices for major manufacturing industries over the period from 1999 to 2018, this paper uses the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)–based generalized least square estimator to estimate the exposures of each industry for each of the four countries to local and world business cycle.FindingsThe individual country analysis indicates that generally the sensitivities of the ASEAN manufacturing industries to booms and recessions are different from the pattern observed in the developed countries and Russia. We do not find evidence consistent with the commonly held view among economists and business managers that demand for durable goods flourishes in booms and falls in recessions. Also, very few industries exhibit an asymmetric reaction to booms and busts. However, the analysis of panel data reveals the expected pattern of industrial sensitivities to the local business cycle only.Originality/valueThe paper makes several contributions. Firstly, the model proposed in the paper estimates sensitivities of industries to both the local and global business cycle variations. Secondly, the model enables us to explicitly test the asymmetric reaction of industries to booms and busts. Thirdly, the paper is the first attempt to estimating business cycle exposures for manufacturing industries in emerging markets.

The optimal thermal causal path analysis on the relationship between international crude oil price and stock market

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Causal Path

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.

Iran nuclear deal could test European unity

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
National Security ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
European Unity ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trading Partners

Significance The recent appointments of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton, both critics of the deal, could contribute to Trump’s willingness to withdraw -- despite progress in consultations between Washington and its European allies to address US concerns. Impacts The reluctance of financial institutions to enter Iran’s market makes it difficult for firms to secure financing for their Iran operations. US secondary sanctions would have a particularly negative impact on Iran’s top European trading partners: Italy, France, Germany and Spain. A snapback of US sanctions would cut Iranian oil exports and push up crude oil prices.

Oil prices complicate Latin America outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
Alternative Energies

Subject 'Winners' and 'losers' from the recent collapse in oil prices. Significance The recent precipitate fall in crude oil prices, with the Brent crude price falling below 50 dollars/barrel in January (less than half its September 2014 level), is clearly having a major impact around the world. In Latin America, which includes both oil importing and exporting countries, there will be winners and losers from this development, although in some cases the oil price impact is likely to prove more nuanced. Impacts Plunging oil prices are compounding doubts surrounding the regional hydrocarbons sector. The effect on investment decisions will have a longer-term impact on the region. The development of alternative energies in Latin America will be hit by the lower prices.

Venezuela's oil sector faces rising challenges

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Heavy Crude ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.

Kuwait energy sector expansion will hit obstacles

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Production

Subject Prospects for Kuwait's energy sector expansion Significance Despite falling revenue because of the slump in global oil prices Kuwait is embarking on two ambitious energy ventures: constructing what will be the region's largest new oil refinery and increasing crude oil production capacity by more than 1 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2020. Impacts Increased oil output capacity will bolster Kuwait' s effort to retain market share in an over-supplied global market. Kuwait is emulating Saudi Arabia in integrating its refining and petrochemical sectors, though diversification will lag. Kuwait will incur Saudi displeasure by developing closer ties with post-sanctions Iran, a possible supplier of new natural gas supplies.

Colombia's oil sector will weather price slump

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Production ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The Colombian oil sector. Significance Colombia's oil industry has been a success story, with crude oil production running at close to 1 million barrels per day (b/d) and playing an important part in the country's economy. However, that very success and its positive economic impact is now creating real challenges for the country, following the precipitate fall in the global oil price. Impacts As the transition to peace reduces pipeline vulnerability, infrastructure investment may increase. Improved refining capacity will reduce Colombia's reliance on diesel and petrol imports, and may enable higher-value exports. An extended period of low oil prices could encourage more diversification and investment in other sectors.

Supply cuts will not offset the drop in oil demand

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Demand ◽  
Oil Demand

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Demand destruction to dampen oil prices

Oil demand lifts prices, but further upside is limited

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Technologies ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Common ◽  
Oil Demand

Significance Rising Chinese imports and falling inventories point to demand exceeding supply at present. However, concerns over how quickly, reliably and fully oil consumption will recover cloud the outlook for prices, alongside doubts over the ability of OPEC+ to maintain supply restraint in the face of rising output by non-OPEC producers. Impacts Higher oil prices will bring some fiscal relief to oil-producing countries, but the financial position of many will remain weak. The price increase is unlikely to reverse the recent pivot of European oil majors towards more sustainable technologies. OPEC+ cooperation will continue given the common interest in stable prices, but less cohesion will moderate the group's ambition. Libyan oil output, which had resumed 2019 levels, is facing more disruption and the prospects for higher Iranian output remain uncertain.

The dynamic information spill-over effect of WTI crude oil prices on China’s traditional energy sectors

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 516-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Jun Zhang ◽  
Yao-Bin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Processing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas exploitation, coal mining and processing, petroleum processing and coking, electricity, heat production and supply and mining services.Design/methodology/approachHong’s information spill-over test and the DP Granger causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two markets. Moreover, a rolling window is introduced into the above two tests to capture time-varying characteristics of the influence of WTI crude oil returns.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that, first, there exists significant bidirectional linear causality between WTI crude oil returns and China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns, but the nonlinear causality appears weaker. Second, the influence of WTI crude oil returns on traditional energy sectoral stock returns has time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity both in the linear and nonlinear cases. Finally, the decline of WTI crude oil prices may strengthen its linear influence on the stock returns of traditional energy sectors, while the excessive rise of market values in traditional energy sectors may weaken the linear and nonlinear influence of WTI on them.Originality/valueThe general nexus between international crude oil market and China’s traditional energy stock market is explored both in the linear and nonlinear perspectives. In particular, the dynamic linear and nonlinear influence of WTI crude oil returns on China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns and its industry heterogeneity are analysed in detail.

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