The Future of Home Service: Integration of User Behavior and Scenario Planning in the Domestic Plumbing Service Design

2021 ◽  
pp. 3-15
Author(s):  
Sachin Shivaji Jadhav ◽  
Pratul Chandra Kalita
Keyword(s):  
User Behavior ◽  
Service Integration ◽  
Service Design ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Home Service ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals What might the future bring? COVID-19 planning considerations for faculty and universities

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. Majowicz
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Faculty Members ◽  
Publicly Funded ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Planning Approach ◽  
The Future

Abstract This paper applies a scenario planning approach, to outline some current uncertainties related to COVID-19 and what they might mean for plausible futures for which we should prepare, and to identify factors that we as individual faculty members and university institutions should be considering now, when planning for the future under COVID-19. Although the contextual focus of this paper is Canada, the content is likely applicable to other places where the COVID-19 epidemic curve is in its initial rising stage, and where universities are predominantly publicly funded institutions.

Open-Air Museums: Scenario Planning for the Future

2014 ◽  
Vol 1020 ◽  
pp. 711-715
Author(s):  
Knarik Stepanyan
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Revenue Generation ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
Local Business ◽  
The Future ◽  
Business Approach ◽  
Additional Income

Open-air museums often referred to as unique and diverse heritage sites with a vast potential for innovation in interpretation and revenue generation. In Armenia this potential remained largely unfulfilled. Most archaeological sites in Armenia are in vast demand to be taken care of. Operated either by a level of government or by a large heritage organization open-air museums can be explored for generating additional income on-site in order to maintain appropriate standards of historical integrity and community value. The following opportunities may be used: as sites for movie sets or conference centers; providing accommodation, facility rentals and summer educational function, camp activities; benefit concerts; in case of business approach there may be cooperation with the local business involving it in the process of operation of restaurants, shops of souvenirs and their production. Commercial tours can also be considered as a means to improve economical perspective for open-air museums.

scholarly journals A VISÃO DE FUTURO POR MEIO DE CENÁRIOS PROSPECTIVOS: UMA FERRAMENTA PARA A ANTECIPAÇÃO DA INOVAÇÃO DISRUPTIVA

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-131
Author(s):  
Ivan Domicio Da Silva Souza ◽  
Vania Passarini Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Disruptive Innovation ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Turbulent Environments ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Simple Activity

Future events are unknown, unexpected and even if forecasts may offer some estimation, there is no way to predict the behavior of unprecedented events. Therefore, looking into the future and drafting a strategy is not a simple activity. All this process is even more fastidious in a period of uncertainties, changes and world crises. However, a method named Scenario Planning may contribute to the formulation of strategies in turbulent environments. In this paper it is reviewed and consolidated the theories and reports in the literature, in order to elucidate the use of prospective scenarios as a tool to anticipate disruptive innovation. In this sense, it is presented and discussed some considerations about the origin of scenarios, the relation between scenarios and strategy, the typologies of scenarios, the tools for scenarios construction, the traditional methods in scenarios development and the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Indeed, scenario planning is a flexible and stimulative method which allows one to identify opportunities for innovation, so as to favor resilient strategic planning and future visioning in threatening environments.

scholarly journals A Scenario Analysis of the 2030 German Spa Tourist and Tourism

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Natalie Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Industry Needs

<p>Tourism is affected by growing transformations of social change, globalisation and wealth creation. Uncertainty surrounding the development of the factors makes it difficult to predict and provide contingency for the future. This is especially so for the spa tourism industry given its enormous figures in revenue growth over the past two decades. Given the growth of the spa industry and the key uncertainties that will shape its future, it is important to understand how the landscape of the spa industry might change in the next few decades. Although there has been research done on the future of spa tourism, for example by the Global Spa and Wellness Summit, their work requires more development and is not country-specific. In response, this study is of value as it explores the future of spa tourism in terms of creating multiple potential pathways. It does this from the perspective of the German spa industry, and addresses the interrelationships of these uncertainties. By following the specific methodology of scenario planning, this study develops a scenario analysis of the future of the German spa industry and answers the questions “What will the German spa tourist and spa tourism industry look like in 2030?” The study consisted of 22 semi-structured interviews with a diverse expert panel in Germany. Interview participants identified twelve key drivers which were discussed in light of existing literature. The two most significant key drivers identified in the interviews were then positioned along a two- key matrix with the demanding consumer on the horizontal axis and new distribution of wealth on the vertical axis. Based on these drivers the study presents four plausible yet challenging and completely different scenarios for the development of the German spa tourist and tourism in 2030. The scenarios include prosperous society, highlighting a positive future for German spas due to the growth of the middle class and thus increasing demands and a multifaceted spa clientele; the power elite, concentrating on the super rich spa consumer and their extravagant consumer behaviour; middle class on the brink, presenting a squeezed middle class and a gradient decline of the spa industry; and the welfare state, a gloomy scenario with almost no spa tourism left. Through examination of significant questions and strategic implications, the study concludes that the spa industry needs to challenge its current linear ways of thinking by adopting new insights and perspectives of the future. Furthermore, the industry needs to establish standardised criteria for accreditation and operation of spa facilities. This needs to include a focus on staff training in order to continue to attract the German spa tourist and thus remain profitable in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Foresight-studies in institutions of higher education

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Foreign Language ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Foreign Languages ◽  
General Direction ◽  
The Future

The article defined the role of Foresight-studies in the current conditions of higher education system development. Different types of Foresight-studies in different countries and their application for educational purposes are analyzed. Methods of conducting foresight research are revealed on the basis of which the most common among them are: Delphi method, SWOT analysis, Information flow analysis, Focus Group Technique, Expert Panels, Scenario Planning, Highlight Key Technologies, Technology Mapping, Development of Roadmaps, Source Scanning, “Analysis of Global Trends”, “PEST Analysis”, “Reverse Scenarios” etc. It is stated that the foresight can be called a technology of constructive attitude towards the future. It involves the development of a system of private forecasts in the most important areas of scientific and technological progress and a comprehensive forecast of scientific and technological development. The article gives examples of university Foresight-studies and their role in forming a modern specialist with forecasting skills. The focus of the study is pay special attention on the Foresight-study conducted at the School of Foreign Languages of V. N. Kharkiv National University entitled “Strategy for the Development of Education at The School of Foreign Languages”. The study was carried out using the Delphi method and included an online survey (digital questionnaire) created in Google forms and included two stages. The first stage was aimed at revealing the general direction of the development of the educational process, and the second stage was aimed at specifying teaching strategies that could be used in the future by the School of Foreign Languages. The survey was attended by 105 people who work or study at the university. It is established that the priority directions of development of educational process at the School of Foreign Languages may be: introduction of the latest digital technologies into the educational process; increase of teaching efficiency and distribution of time between participants of educational process (transformation of the role of the lecturer); communicative aspect through improvement of teaching methods at the School of Foreign Languages, namely the involvement of foreign language speakers in teaching and practice, conducting more foreign language activities, changing the criteria for assessing students’ success by foreign models.

scholarly journals Governmentality of new digital public feedback services: Technologies for motivating user behavior

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-492
Author(s):  
Konstantin Kondratenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
User Behavior ◽  
Basic Component ◽  
User Engagement ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Breaking Time ◽  
Digital Channels ◽  
User Motivation

The article is devoted to the concept of “governmentality”, a term introduced by Michel Foucault, as well as the form of its implementation on feedback services implemented today in Russian regions within the framework of the national program “Digital economy of the Russian Federation”. The governmentality of regional portals is expressed in the structure of user motivation, the most powerful component of which, in terms of its impact on the audience, is the construction of an image of the future and the strengthening of the imbalance between the present and the future. Such a mechanism for artificially breaking time continuums is also used to strengthen the role and significance of citizens’ identity. In addition, new digital channels of participation actively en- courage citizens to promote and interact with public authorities, i.e. to create or maintain declared institutions of interaction. Finally, portal motivation technologies are presented as a range of gamification methods that are also used to engage citizens. The described structure of motivation of regional portals is presented in the article as a “motivation funnel”. At the same time, the behavior of users is determined not so much by the structure of motivation presented on the portals, but by their consent to participate and trust in the communicant, i.e., in actors and institutions of power. The basic component of user engagement is agreement with at least one component of the governmentality of digital feedback services. Increasing user activity is possible by agreeing with the eco-urban theme of sites, as well as by increasing confidence in federal authorities, while increasing confidence in the authorities may occur due to trust in the “organizers” of new services — the actors responsible for the development, implementation and support of portals. The article presents a diagram of user behavior in the form of a graph and an epistemic matrix.

A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mehdi Zahraei ◽  
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan ◽  
Lynette Cheah
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
City State ◽  
Operational Issues

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

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