A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mehdi Zahraei ◽  
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan ◽  
Lynette Cheah
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
City State ◽  
Operational Issues

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

scholarly journals Driving forces of road freight CO2 in 2030

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 260-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki Liimatainen ◽  
Inger Beate Hovi ◽  
Niklas Arvidsson ◽  
Lasse Nykänen
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
National Differences ◽  
Road Freight ◽  
The Future ◽  
Consumer Habits

Purpose – Road freight carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are determined by a complex interaction between shippers and hauliers within the boundaries set by regulations and economic factors. It is necessary to gain understanding about the various driving forces and trends affecting these to promote low carbon future. The purpose of this paper is to find out what factors affect the long-term future development of road freight CO2 emissions and whether the long-term emission targets will be achieved. Design/methodology/approach – An international comparison of similar Delphi surveys is carried out in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Findings – The Delphi surveys indicate that the structural change of the economy, changes of consumer habits, concerns of energy and environment and changes in logistics practices and technology are the overarching trends shaping the future of the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions of road freight transport. The expert forecasts for Finland and Sweden highlight that reaching the carbon emission target of 30 per cent reduction for the year 2030 is possible. However, the CO2 emissions may also increase significantly even though the CO2 intensity would decrease, as the Norwegian forecast shows. Originality/value – This study combined quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results confirmed that similar factors are seen to affect the future in all three countries, but with some national differences in the likely effects of the factors. Future research using the same methodology would enable wider analysis of the global significance of these driving forces.

The future of governance in Iran

foresight ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Asghar Pourezzat ◽  
Mohammad Hoseini Moghadam ◽  
Maryam Sani Ejlal ◽  
Ghazaleh Taheriattar
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interdisciplinary Field ◽  
International Trends ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Purpose Through an examination of macro-historical studies on the governance of Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the most significant and important events and trends in the rise and fall of Iranian governments and introduce alternative futures in a range of possible, plausible and preferable forms of future governance. To carry out a foresight study of alternative futures of Iranian governance, the authors used futures studies, based on the detection of the most critical driving forces, which are also the most important uncertainties. Futures studies as an interdisciplinary field of study help to identify the events and trends that affect political change and offer scenarios of four alternative futures for the governance of Iran: Smart and Stable Government, Authoritarian Development-oriented Government, Irrational Government and Irrational Breakable Government. The authors believe that Iran’s endeavors to promote democracy, taking the changing international trends into account, make a more trustworthy future for Iran both possible plausible. Design/methodology/approach Based on macro-history approach and by using “shared history”, future triangle and then scenario planning, the future of Governance in Iran has been analyzed. Findings Whenever the government has distanced itself from the public and has neglected the trend of international change, it has been faced with a period of collapse and annihilation. And whenever these two important factors are understood, the result is a trend of development and growth. Therefore, the most favored image of Iran’s future relies on the maintenance and promotion of public participation and on increasing attention to the sustainable realities of international relations. Originality/value The complexities of events and trends affecting the rise and fall of previous governments of Iran make it necessary to use an interdisciplinary approach to understand the events that have emerged or are emerging in its governance. In this study, from futures studies point of view, transformation of governance has been studied.

Post-pandemic challenges for all ages in an ageing society

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Burke
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Older People ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Way

Purpose This paper aims to highlight lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for planning for the future of our ageing society. It looks at trends, changes in our society and implications for people of all ages. It focusses on the importance of planning and whether COVID-19 will lead to long-term changes. Design/methodology/approach This paper draws on the author’s experiences running an intergenerational organisation during the pandemic and other work associated with ageing well. Findings This paper highlights some of the risks and unknowns we face going forwards and points to lessons and opportunities for “building back better”. Research limitations/implications This paper is based on a review of published articles and viewpoints. Practical implications The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged people of all ages in different ways, some of which have tested intergenerational solidarity. At the same time, the pandemic has raised issues which we must all address going forward: planning for future pandemics, planning for an ageing society and ensuring that future planning works for all generations. This paper explores all these themes in the light of lessons from COVID-19. Firstly, despite much risk assessment and scenario planning, we were not well placed in the UK or across the world to respond to the multiple challenges of COVID-19. Have we learned the lessons to be able to deal better with the inevitable pandemics that will follow in the future? It is also well documented that the pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities in our society. What will the long-term impact be for longevity and will less healthy lives reverse the trend of increasing life expectancy? Secondly, what are the lessons for our ageing society? As life expectancy rises, what will the quality of life be like in those added years? Many of today’s babies can expect to have a 100-year life. What does that mean for the way we lead our lives and can we ensure that everyone can age well? Third, these are not just issues for older people, but for people of all ages and generations. The Covid-19 experience has been different for younger and older people – whether it has been health or job security, income, taxation or housing. Questions of intergenerational fairness have again raised their heads, alongside the longer term impact for future generations. Social implications Firstly, despite much risk assessment and scenario planning, we were not well placed in the UK or across the world to respond to the multiple challenges of COVID-19. Have we learned the lessons to be able to deal better with the inevitable pandemics that will follow in the future? It is also well documented that the pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities in our society. What will the long-term impact be for longevity and will less healthy lives reverse the trend of increasing life expectancy? Secondly, what are the lessons for our ageing society? As life expectancy rises, what will the quality of life be like in those added years? Many of today’s babies can expect to have a 100-year life. What does that mean for the way we lead our lives and can we ensure that everyone can age well? Thirdly, these are not just issues for older people, but for people of all ages and generations. Measures that bring older and younger people together and encourage meaningful mixing will help increase understanding and awareness between generations. This has huge implications for our society and communities. Originality/value This paper reaches two main conclusions. Firstly, the well-known saying: “failing to plan is planning to fail”. This applies to all the issues discussed in this paper re future pandemics, our ageing society and future generations. Secondly, the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic should be the catalyst for changing the way we live and lead to new beginnings. We cannot just carry on as before.

scholarly journals The future of food tourism

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Yeoman ◽  
Una McMahon-Beatte
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Review ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Future ◽  
Food Tourism

Purpose The authors identify five driving forces of changes that are shaping the discourses about food tourism. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The approach used by this paper is a general review. Findings The five driving forces identified are: food tourism as political capital; food tourism as a visionary state; what it means to be a foodie; the drive for affluence and exclusivity; fluid experiences in a post-modernist world. Originality/value The five drivers of change are identified as the core of any food tourism strategy for policy makers.

Forty years of rural reform in China: retrospect and future prospects

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiwen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rural Reform ◽  
Fields Of Study ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Purpose Bottlenecked by rural underdevelopment, China’s overall development is bound to be inadequate and unbalanced. Through a brief retrospect of the reform directed against the “equalitarianism (egalitarianism)” in China’s rural areas, as well as the Chinese Government’s conceptual transformation and systemic construction and improvement thereof, the purpose of this paper is to clarify the panoramic significance of rural reform; the necessity, priority, and long-term nature of the current rural development; and the important role of public policy in doing so. It also looks ahead to consider the prospects for future rural reform. Design/methodology/approach This paper first reviews the rural reforms that were carried out in 1978. Second, it introduces the government’s conceptual change regarding rural reform and the establishment and improvement of the system that underlies it. Finally, the future of rural reform is envisaged. Findings The initial rural reforms brought extensive and profound changes to China’s rural areas. The experience of rural reform has been referred to and escalated by other fields of study. Hence, rural reforms have become something of global significance. Moreover, since the government can undertake reforms well beyond the reach of farmers, its views must be modified in a timely manner, and only then may it reasonably construct and improve the system pertaining to the “three rural issues (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers).” Originality/value This paper reviews the rural reforms carried out in 1978. It introduces the government’s change of concept with respect to rural reforms and the establishment and improvement of the system based on the “three rural issues,” thus looking forward to the future of rural reforms. The findings of this paper are of significance to the formulation of future agricultural policies.

Cultural traits influencing the adoption of new ways of workings

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amitesh Singh Parihar ◽  
Vinita Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Survey Questionnaire ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Ways Of Working ◽  
One Step ◽  
Cultural Traits ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the strengths and areas of improvement for taking organizations one step ahead in terms of adopting digitalization, analytics and governance. Also, the paper aims to identify the organizational cultural traits that influence the adoption of digitization and technology, analytics and governance. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative analysis of survey questionnaire collected from working professionals of various manufacturing industries to find out the driving traits and the restraining traits and to propose which is dominating. Sector: manufacturing, sample: working professionals across functions and sample size: 80–100 people. Findings This research suggests the cultural traits that influence the adoption of digitization and technology, analytics and governance in any organization. Practical implications As organizations explore new ways of working, their organizational culture and employee perspective would play an important role in prioritizing the interventions. This research aims to suggest a strategy to strengthen the driving forces and/or weaken the restraining forces. Originality/value There are various papers available on the individual topics but the uniqueness of this paper is that it represents all three factors in a single research and their influencers.

Case-method teaching: advantages and disadvantages in organizational training

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (9/10) ◽  
pp. 711-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naghi Radi Afsouran ◽  
Morteza Charkhabi ◽  
Seyed Ali Siadat ◽  
Reza Hoveida ◽  
Hamid Reza Oreyzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Real World ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Case Method ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Organizational Training ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
The Individual

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce case-method teaching (CMT), its advantages and disadvantages for the process of organizational training within organizations, as well as to compare its advantages and disadvantages with current training methods. Design/methodology/approach The authors applied a systematic literature review to define, identify and compare CMT with current methods. Findings In CMT, participants get involved with real-world challenges from an action perspective instead of analyzing them from a distance. Also, different reactions of the participants to the same challenge aid instructors to identify the individual differences of participants toward the challenge. Although CMT is still not considered as a popular organizational training method, the advantages of CMT may encourage organizational instructors to further apply it. Improving the long-term memory, enhancing the quality of decision making and understanding the individual differences of individuals are the advantages of CMT. Research limitations/implications A lack of sufficient empirical researchers and the high cost of conducting this method may prevent practitioners to apply it. Originality/value The review suggested that CMT is able to bring dilemmas from the real world into training settings. Also, it helps organizations to identify the individual reactions before they make a decision.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

scholarly journals Gameplay as a Source of Intrinsic Motivation for Individuals in Need of Ankle Training or Rehabilitation

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Christian Nilsson ◽  
Stefania Serafin ◽  
Rolf Nordahl
Keyword(s):  
Intrinsic Motivation ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Rehabilitation Process ◽  
Design And Implementation ◽  
Quantitative Test ◽  
Ankle Rehabilitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Injuries to the ankle may be a source of great discomfort and the long-term effects can negatively influence the future health of the individual who has suffered the injury. Wobble boards represent a relatively inexpensive type of equipment that may be used to train one's ankles preventively or as part of the rehabilitation process once the damage has been done. However, individuals in need of such training frequently lack the motivation necessary in order to successfully complete the training or rehabilitation process. This paper details the design and implementation of a prototype intended to alleviate this problem by leveraging games' potential as a source of intrinsic motivation. More specifically, the prototype enables users to control a game by means of a wobble board, thus allowing them to perform the necessary exercises while playing. An expert on ankle rehabilitation assessed the efficacy of the training facilitated by the prototype, and 40 individuals partook in a quantitative test performed in order to determine whether the prototype could potentially provide the needed motivation. Based on the findings from the two tests, it is concluded that the prototype does ensure correct ankle training and the act of playing was experienced as intrinsically motivating by the majority of the test participants.

The Emergence of Democracy: Forces and Counter-forces

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 336-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Berg-Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Democratic Values ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Broad Overview

Capitalism and democracy have transformed the world, but not in a harmonious way. This article provides a broad overview of the major driving forces of democracy, its relationship with ongoing socioeconomic developments and some of the countervailing factors. It points to the inherently conflictive nature of democratic procedures and decision-making, but also emphasizes the potentially universal implications of basic democratic values. Against this background, the future prospects of democracy and possible alternatives in the age of globalization are assessed. All this is based, as far as space permits, on the huge body of available theoretical and empirical literature, but also on the author’s long-term preoccupation with this topic and some of his personal views and experiences.

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