Assessing state population projections with transparent multiregional demographic models

1991 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Rogers ◽  
Jennifer A. Woodward
Keyword(s):  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
State Population

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis in Multiregional Demographic Models

1977 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
F J Willekens
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life Table ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Sensitivity Functions ◽  
And Migration

The theory of multiregional mathematical demography investigates how fertility, mortality, and migration combine to shape the growth of multiregional population systems. Population dynamics have been studied for cases where the structural parameters, namely the age-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, are fixed. This paper addresses the question of how the system behaves under changing structural parameters. By applying the technique of matrix differentiation, sensitivity functions are derived which link changes in multiregional life-table statistics and in population projections to changes in the age-specific rates. A review of the technique, which may be used for the sensitivity analysis of any matrix model, is given in the appendix.

Environmental stochasticity: empirical estimates of prairie vole survival with implications for demographic models

2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (5) ◽  
pp. 635-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron W. Reed ◽  
Norman A. Slade
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rates ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Prairie Voles ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Cross Correlations

A rich theory exists regarding the potential impact of correlations among vital rates on population projections derived from demographic models. However, relatively little is known about the magnitude of correlations among vital rates in natural populations, particularly in mammals. We used 30 years of mark–recapture data from a population of prairie voles ( Microtus ochrogaster (Wagner, 1842)) to test for differences in survival among mass classes and sexes, in correlations among vital rates, in correlations between vital rates and environmental factors, and in autocorrelation in vital rates. Estimated monthly survival rates did not differ significantly among mass classes and there were no significant cross-correlations among mass classes. Survival of large prairie voles increased in mild winters (i.e., warm temperatures and low snowfall). Survival rates of medium and large voles were negatively autocorrelated at time lags of 9–12 months, and survivals of large voles were positively autocorrelated for time lags of <3 months. These autocorrelations were not explained by patterns of temperature or precipitation. The observed degree of autocorrelation in vital rates is sufficient to affect projections from demographic models, particularly in short-lived taxa that require seasonal or monthly estimation of vital rates.

Prison population projections, 2006-2013: England and Wales

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nisha de Silva ◽  
Paul Cowell ◽  
Terence Chow ◽  
Paul Worthington
Keyword(s):  
Prison Population ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
England And Wales

scholarly journals Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Blaxill ◽  
Toby Rogers ◽  
Cynthia Nevison
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Total Base ◽  
Cost Categories ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe cost of ASD in the U.S. is estimated using a forecast model that for the first time accounts for the true historical increase in ASD. Model inputs include ASD prevalence, census population projections, six cost categories, ten age brackets, inflation projections, and three future prevalence scenarios. Future ASD costs increase dramatically: total base-case costs of $223 (175–271) billion/year are estimated in 2020; $589 billion/year in 2030, $1.36 trillion/year in 2040, and $5.54 (4.29–6.78) trillion/year by 2060, with substantial potential savings through ASD prevention. Rising prevalence, the shift from child to adult-dominated costs, the transfer of costs from parents onto government, and the soaring total costs raise pressing policy questions and demand an urgent focus on prevention strategies.

scholarly journals Identifying loci under selection via explicit demographic models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirzi Luqman ◽  
Alex Widmer ◽  
Simone Fior ◽  
Daniel Wegmann
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Models

scholarly journals Demographic effects of interacting species: exploring stable coexistence under increased climatic variability in a semiarid shrub community

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana I. García-Cervigón ◽  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Adrián Escudero ◽  
Merari E. Ferrer-Cervantes ◽  
Ana M. Sánchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Species Coexistence ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Shrub Community

AbstractPopulation persistence is strongly determined by climatic variability. Changes in the patterns of climatic events linked to global warming may alter population dynamics, but their effects may be strongly modulated by biotic interactions. Plant populations interact with each other in such a way that responses to climate of a single population may impact the dynamics of the whole community. In this study, we assess how climate variability affects persistence and coexistence of two dominant plant species in a semiarid shrub community on gypsum soils. We use 9 years of demographic data to parameterize demographic models and to simulate population dynamics under different climatic and ecological scenarios. We observe that populations of both coexisting species may respond to common climatic fluctuations both similarly and in idiosyncratic ways, depending on the yearly combination of climatic factors. Biotic interactions (both within and among species) modulate some of their vital rates, but their effects on population dynamics highly depend on climatic fluctuations. Our results indicate that increased levels of climatic variability may alter interspecific relationships. These alterations might potentially affect species coexistence, disrupting competitive hierarchies and ultimately leading to abrupt changes in community composition.

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