Modelling the Potential Acute and Post-Acute Burden of COVID-19 Under the Australian Border Re-Opening Plan

Background Concerns have grown that post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 may affect significant numbers of survivors. However, the analyses used to guide policy-making for Australia’s national and state re-opening plans have not incorporated non-acute illness in their modelling. We therefore develop a model by which to estimate the potential acute and post-acute COVID-19 burden using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with the re-opening of Australian borders and the easing of other public health measures, with particular attention to longer term, post-acute consequences and the potential impact of permanent functional impairment following COVID-19. Methods A model was developed to estimate the burden of COVID-19 using DALYs. It was then applied to different scenarios drawn from the Doherty Institute’s modelling report, to estimate the likely DALY losses under the Australian national reopening plan. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to examine the robustness of the results. Results Mortality was responsible for 72%-74% of the total base case COVID-19 burden. Long COVID and post-intensive care syndrome accounted for at least 19% and 3% of the total base case DALYs respectively. When included in the analysis, permanent impairment could contribute up to 51%-55% of total DALYs lost. Conclusions The impact of Long COVID and potential long-term post-COVID disabilities could contribute substantially to COVID-19 burden in Australia’s post-vaccination setting. As vaccination coverage increases, the share of COVID-19 burden driven by longer-term morbidity rises relative to mortality. As Australia re-opens, better estimates of COVID-19 burden can assist with decision-making on pandemic control measures and planning for the healthcare needs of COVID-19 survivors. Our estimates highlight the importance of valuing the morbidity of post-COVID-19 sequelae, above and beyond simple mortality and case statistics.

Rapid Fleet Condition Analysis through Correlating Basic Vehicle Tracking Data with Engine Oil FT-IR Spectra

Engine oil condition and tribological performance are strongly interrelated. Accordingly, oil condition monitoring is common in various applications. This is especially important, as oil condition depends on the fueling and utilization profile of an internal combustion engine. Common practice involves the measurement of various parameters, such as the total acid number and total base number, oxidation, nitration, viscosity, and elemental composition; thus, it can be time-consuming and resource-intensive. This study provides a methodology for rapid analysis for large vehicle fleets or sample sizes, using only Fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy and the subsequent multivariate data analysis offers a rapid alternative to commonly available methods. The described method provides a rapid, cost-efficient, and intuitive approach to uncovering differences in the oil condition. Furthermore, understanding the underlying reasons in engine construction and the resulting chemical degradation is also possible.

Performance of Six- and Ten-story Reinforced Concrete Buildings Designed by using Modified Partial Capacity Design (M-PCD) Method with 70% Shear Force Ratio

One design alternative of earthquake resistant building is Partial Capacity Design (PCD) method. Unlike the commonly used capacity design method, PCD allows a safe failure mechanism which is called partial sidesway mechanism. In this mechanism, all beams and some columns are allowed to experience plastic damages while some selected columns are designed to remain elastic (called elastic columns). A new approach to predict the required strengths needed to design each structural member, called modified-PCD (M-PCD) is proposed. In this research six- and ten-story reinforced concrete buildings were designed using M-PCD, and their seismic performances are investigated. The base shear force resisted by the elastic columns was set to approximately 70% of the total base shear. Both nonlinear static procedure (NSP) and nonlinear dynamic procedure (NDP) are used to analyze the structures. The results show that the expected partial side sway mechanism is observed, and the drifts of the buildings are acceptable.

Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States

The cost of ASD in the U.S. is estimated using a forecast model that for the first time accounts for the true historical increase in ASD. Model inputs include ASD prevalence, census population projections, six cost categories, ten age brackets, inflation projections, and three future prevalence scenarios. Future ASD costs increase dramatically: total base-case costs of $223 (175–271) billion/year are estimated in 2020; $589 billion/year in 2030, $1.36 trillion/year in 2040, and $5.54 (4.29–6.78) trillion/year by 2060, with substantial potential savings through ASD prevention. Rising prevalence, the shift from child to adult-dominated costs, the transfer of costs from parents onto government, and the soaring total costs raise pressing policy questions and demand an urgent focus on prevention strategies.

Artificial Aging Experiments of Neat and Contaminated Engine Oil Samples

This study highlights how the results from an artificial engine oil aging method compare to used engine oil samples collected from a vehicle fleet. Additionally, this paper presents the effect of contaminating the oil during aging with synthetic fuel alternatives on the physical and chemical properties of artificially aged engine oil samples. A laboratory-scale artificial thermo-oxidative aging experiment was conducted on multiple samples of commercially available formulated fully-synthetic SAE 0W-30 engine oil. The goal of the experiment was to establish the validity of the artificially aged samples as well as the validity of the underlying process in reproducibly fabricating small batches of aged engine oil with comparable chemical and physical properties to real-life used oils. Eight samples were subjected to distinct load cases (temperature, air flow rate, sample volume and aging time). Six additional samples were subjected to an intermediate load case, with five of them contaminated with selected conventional fuels and novel automotive fuel candidates. Conventional oil analysis was conducted on each sample to determine oxidation, residual additive content, kinematic viscosity and total base number. Additionally, analysis results were compared to in-use engine oil samples through PCA. The resulting oil condition after aging is in accordance with independently published results in terms of zinc dialkyldithiophosphate content and kinematic viscosity. Contaminated aging with OME 3-5 resulted in a drop in antioxidant content and elevated kinematic viscosity. Based on the comparison with in-use samples, artificial aging of 200 mL engine oil at 180 °C with 1 L/min air flow for 96 h can produce similar oil conditions as mixed vehicle use for 7000 km.

UV-Visible Spectrophotometer for Distinguishing Oxidation Time of Engine Oil

Samples of gasoline engine oil (SAE 5W20) that had been exposed to various oxidation times were inspected with a UV-Visible (UV-Vis) spectrophotometer to select the best wavelengths and wavelength ranges for distinguishing oxidation times. Engine oil samples were subjected to different thermal oxidation periods of 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, and 144 hours, resulting in a range of total base number (TBN) levels. Each wavelength (190.5–849.5 nm) and selected wavelength ranges were evaluated to determine the wavelength or wavelength ranges that could best distinguish among all oxidation times. The best wavelengths and wavelength ranges were analyzed with linear regression to determine the best wavelength or range to predict oxidation time.

Characteristics of Duwet Karst Spring Based on Baseflow Index Assessment and its Potential in Fresh Water Supply

<p><em>This study aims to determine the potential of Duwet springs and their availability for supplying fresh water to the surrounding community. we use hydrographs to analyze aquifer characteristics. To analyze the hydrographs, we use water level and spring discharge data. Automatic Water Level Record (AWLR) records water level data for 1 dry season and 1 rainy season every 15 minutes. We use the volumetric method to measure the spring discharge 14 times. We compare the base flow and demand over a year to analyze the potential for fresh water. The results show that the Stage discharge rating curve y = 0.0002e5,453x with R² value of 0.87. Duwet Springs is a perennial spring that has a small discharge (class VI). The largest discharge ever recorded was 0.69 L/s (March 7, 2020) and the smallest recorded was 0.12 L/s (August 21, 2020). BFI value varied between 0.05 and 1 with mean 0.801. The total base flow is 2490675.734 L (rainy season) and 1563419.873 L (dry season). These springs are sufficient for 75% of the rainy season and 84% in the dry season. This indicates that the existence of Duwet springs is very important for the surrounding community.</em></p>

Analysis of the Effect of Biodiesel B20 and B100 on the Degradation of Viscosity and Total Base Number of Lubricating Oil in Diesel Engines with Long-Term Operation Using ASTM D2896 and ASTM D445-06 Methods

Based on its characteristics, biodiesel has a higher density, viscosity, and acidity level than diesel fuel, so it has a disadvantages in terms of lubricants especially in the long run. The impact, it can decrease the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant, a decrease in the total base number, and the impact by decreased of the engine performance. This research aims to determine the characteristics of lubricants from the use of biodiesel (B20 and B100) related to the kinematic viscosity of lubricants and Total Base Number (TBN). The testing method were used ASTM D2896-15 and ASTM D445-06 standard. The study used two units Kubota RD 65 DI-NB diesel engines with a cylinder volume of 376 cc. The rotary speed of the machine was keep constant at 2200 rpm and were operated for 300 hours non-stop. Moreover, the sampled was carried out every multiple of 100 hours. Based on the research results, the quality of lubricants with B100 fuel is no better than lubricants with B20 fuel. B100-fueled lubricants have kinematic viscosity values at temperatures of 40 °C and 100 °C and has lower TBN values than B20-fueled lubricants.