Estimation of possible climate change impacts on water availability, extreme flow events and soil moisture in the Goulburn and Ovens Basins, Victoria

Arid ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change, which is considered one of the serious global environmental issues that can cause critical challenges to the hydrological cycle in arid ecosystems. This work focused on assessing the effectiveness of supplemental irrigation to improve the actual soil moisture content in arid ecosystems and considering climate change impacts on soil moisture. The study was conducted at two fenced protected sites in Kuwait. The first site is naturally covered with Rhanterietum epapposum, whereas the other study site is a supplemented irrigated site, containing several revegetated native plants. The results showed that supplemental irrigation highly improved soil moisture (∆SM) during the winter season by >50%. However, during the summer season, the rainfed and irrigated site showed low ∆SM due to the high temperature and high evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We also found that ∆SM would negatively get impacted by climate change. The climate change projection results showed that temperature would increase by 12%–23%, ET would increase by 17%–19%, and precipitation would decrease by 31%–46% by 2100. Such climate change impacts may also shift the current ecosystem from an arid to a hyper-arid ecosystem. Therefore, we concluded that irrigation is a practical option to support the ∆SM during the low-temperature months only (spring and winter) since the results did not show any progress during the summer season. It is also essential to consider the possibility of future shifting in ecosystems and plant communities in restoration and revegetation planning.

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Perceptions of Present and Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability for Agricultural Systems in the Western Mediterranean Region

Water ◽

10.3390/w8110523 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (11) ◽

pp. 523 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Thi Nguyen ◽

Laura Mula ◽

Raffaele Cortignani ◽

Giovanna Seddaiu ◽

Gabriele Dono ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Systems

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Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Drought for Major Upland Crops using Soil Moisture Model -Focused on the Jeollanam-do-

Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers ◽

10.5389/ksae.2015.57.3.065 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 57 (3) ◽

pp. 65-76 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Eun-Mi Hong ◽

Won-Ho Nam ◽

Jin-Yong Choi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Soil Moisture Model

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Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

Earth System Dynamics Discussions ◽

10.5194/esdd-5-403-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 403-442 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

T. K. Lissner ◽

D. E. Reusser ◽

J. Schewe ◽

T. Lakes ◽

J. P. Kropp

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Well Being ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Impact Model ◽

First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

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Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-5-355-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 355-373 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

T. K. Lissner ◽

D. E. Reusser ◽

J. Schewe ◽

T. Lakes ◽

J. P. Kropp

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Well Being ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Impact Model ◽

First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

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Modeling of the Mendoza river watershed as a tool to study climate change impacts on water availability

Environmental Science & Policy ◽

10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.002 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 43 ◽

pp. 91-97 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Julia Schwank ◽

Rocío Escobar ◽

Gissela H. Girón ◽

Enrique Morán-Tejeda

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

River Watershed

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Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-15-2789-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 15 (9) ◽

pp. 2789-2803 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

M. Özdoğan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Snow Cover ◽

21St Century ◽

Water Availability ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Macro Scale ◽

Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

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