scholarly journals Daily precipitation statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: added value of raw and bias-corrected high-resolution simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 719-737 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Casanueva ◽  
S. Kotlarski ◽  
S. Herrera ◽  
J. Fernández ◽  
J. M. Gutiérrez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Added Value

Applying the new spatially distributed Added Value Index and Climate Change Downscaling Signal for Regional Climate Models to high-resolution EURO-CORDEX and convection permitting scale simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Ciarlo ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Emanuela Pichelli ◽  
Jose Abraham Torres Alavez ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Spatially Distributed

<p>Downscaling data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is a computationally expensive process, even more so running at the convection permitting scale (CP). Despite the high-resolution products of these simulations, the Added Value (AV) of these runs compared to their driving models is an important factor for consideration. A new method was recently developed to quantify the AV of historical simulations as well as the Climate Change Downscaling Signal (CCDS) of forecast runs. This method presents these quantities spatially and thus the specific regions with the most AV can be identified and understood.</p><p>An analysis of daily precipitation from a 55-model EURO-CORDEX ensemble (at 12 km resolution) was assessed using this method. It revealed positive AV throughout the domain with greater emphasis in regions of complex topography, coast-lines, and the tropics. Similar CCDS was obtained when assessing the RCP 8.5 far future runs in these domains. This paper looks more closely at the CCDS obtained with this method and compares it to other climate change signals described in other studies.</p><p>The same method is now being applied to assess the AV and CCDS of daily precipitation from an ensemble of models at the CP scale (~3 km) over different domains within Europe. The current stage of the analysis is also looking into the AV of using hourly precipitation instead of daily.</p>

scholarly journals Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Tabari ◽  
Rozemien De Troch ◽  
Olivier Giot ◽  
Rafiq Hamdi ◽  
Piet Termonia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Added Value

Abstract. This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolution provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3–4 km are compared with those from the coarse scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. The high-resolution ALARO and CCLM models reveal an added value to capture sub-daily precipitation extremes during summer compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. Further validation of historical climate simulations based on design precipitation statistics derived from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the climate model, since such intensification is not observed for the ALARO model.

scholarly journals Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 3843-3857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Tabari ◽  
Rozemien De Troch ◽  
Olivier Giot ◽  
Rafiq Hamdi ◽  
Piet Termonia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
High Resolution Models

Abstract. This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3–4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local sub-daily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.

scholarly journals Evaluation of daily precipitation analyses in E‐OBS (v19.0e) and ERA5 by comparison to regional high‐resolution datasets in European regions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Bandhauer ◽  
Francesco Isotta ◽  
Monika Lakatos ◽  
Cristian Lussana ◽  
Line Båserud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
European Regions

scholarly journals A Downscaling–Merging Scheme for Improving Daily Spatial Precipitation Estimates Based on Random Forest and Cokriging

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2040
Author(s):  
Xin Yan ◽  
Hua Chen ◽  
Bingru Tian ◽  
Sheng Sheng ◽  
Jinxing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

High-spatial-resolution precipitation data are of great significance in many applications, such as ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Acquiring high-precision and high-resolution precipitation data in a large area is still a great challenge. In this study, a downscaling–merging scheme based on random forest and cokriging is presented to solve this problem. First, the enhanced decision tree model, which is based on random forest from machine learning algorithms, is used to reduce the spatial resolution of satellite daily precipitation data to 0.01°. The downscaled satellite-based daily precipitation is then merged with gauge observations using the cokriging method. The scheme is applied to downscale the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) daily precipitation product over the upstream part of the Hanjiang Basin. The experimental results indicate that (1) the downscaling model based on random forest can correctly spatially downscale the GPM daily precipitation data, which retains the accuracy of the original GPM data and greatly improves their spatial details; (2) the GPM precipitation data can be downscaled on the seasonal scale; and (3) the merging method based on cokriging greatly improves the accuracy of the downscaled GPM daily precipitation data. This study provides an efficient scheme for generating high-resolution and high-quality daily precipitation data in a large area.

scholarly journals seNorge2 daily precipitation, an observational gridded dataset over Norway from 1957 to the present day

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristian Lussana ◽  
Tuomo Saloranta ◽  
Thomas Skaugen ◽  
Jan Magnusson ◽  
Ole Einar Tveito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Optimal Interpolation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Sciences

Abstract. The conventional climate gridded datasets based on observations only are widely used in atmospheric sciences; our focus in this paper is on climate and hydrology. On the Norwegian mainland, seNorge2 provides high-resolution fields of daily total precipitation for applications requiring long-term datasets at regional or national level, where the challenge is to simulate small-scale processes often taking place in complex terrain. The dataset constitutes a valuable meteorological input for snow and hydrological simulations; it is updated daily and presented on a high-resolution grid (1 km of grid spacing). The climate archive goes back to 1957. The spatial interpolation scheme builds upon classical methods, such as optimal interpolation and successive-correction schemes. An original approach based on (spatial) scale-separation concepts has been implemented which uses geographical coordinates and elevation as complementary information in the interpolation. seNorge2 daily precipitation fields represent local precipitation features at spatial scales of a few kilometers, depending on the station network density. In the surroundings of a station or in dense station areas, the predictions are quite accurate even for intense precipitation. For most of the grid points, the performances are comparable to or better than a state-of-the-art pan-European dataset (E-OBS), because of the higher effective resolution of seNorge2. However, in very data-sparse areas, such as in the mountainous region of southern Norway, seNorge2 underestimates precipitation because it does not make use of enough geographical information to compensate for the lack of observations. The evaluation of seNorge2 as the meteorological forcing for the seNorge snow model and the DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) rainfall–runoff model shows that both models have been able to make profitable use of seNorge2, partly because of the automatic calibration procedure they incorporate for precipitation. The seNorge2 dataset 1957–2015 is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.845733. Daily updates from 2015 onwards are available at http://thredds.met.no/thredds/catalog/metusers/senorge2/seNorge2/provisional_archive/PREC1d/gridded_dataset/catalog.html.

scholarly journals Automatic Prediction of High-Resolution Daily Rainfall Fields for Multiple Extents: The Potential of Operational Radar

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1204-1224 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Schuurmans ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens ◽  
E. J. Pebesma ◽  
R. Uijlenhoet
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Geostatistical Methods ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This study investigates the added value of operational radar with respect to rain gauges in obtaining high-resolution daily rainfall fields as required in distributed hydrological modeling. To this end data from the Netherlands operational national rain gauge network (330 gauges nationwide) is combined with an experimental network (30 gauges within 225 km2). Based on 74 selected rainfall events (March–October 2004) the spatial variability of daily rainfall is investigated at three spatial extents: small (225 km2), medium (10 000 km2), and large (82 875 km2). From this analysis it is shown that semivariograms show no clear dependence on season. Predictions of point rainfall are performed for all three extents using three different geostatistical methods: (i) ordinary kriging (OK; rain gauge data only), (ii) kriging with external drift (KED), and (iii) ordinary collocated cokriging (OCCK), with the latter two using both rain gauge data and range-corrected daily radar composites—a standard operational radar product from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The focus here is on automatic prediction. For the small extent, rain gauge data alone perform better than radar, while for larger extents with lower gauge densities, radar performs overall better than rain gauge data alone (OK). Methods using both radar and rain gauge data (KED and OCCK) prove to be more accurate than using either rain gauge data alone (OK) or radar, in particular, for larger extents. The added value of radar is positively related to the correlation between radar and rain gauge data. Using a pooled semivariogram is almost as good as using event-based semivariograms, which is convenient if the prediction is to be automated. An interesting result is that the pooled semivariograms perform better in terms of estimating the prediction error (kriging variance) especially for the small and medium extent, where the number of data points to estimate semivariograms is small and event-based semivariograms are rather unstable.

scholarly journals A hindcast study of the Piedmont 1994 flood: the CIMA Research Foundation hydro-meteorological forecasting chain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Parodi ◽  
Martina Lagasio ◽  
Agostino N. Meroni ◽  
Flavio Pignone ◽  
Francesco Silvestro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
North Western ◽  
Discharge Curves

AbstractBetween the 4th and the 6th of November 1994, Piedmont and the western part of Liguria (two regions in north-western Italy) were hit by heavy rainfalls that caused the flooding of the Po, the Tanaro rivers and several of their tributaries, causing 70 victims and the displacement of over 2000 people. At the time of the event, no early warning system was in place and the concept of hydro-meteorological forecasting chain was in its infancy, since it was still limited to a reduced number of research applications, strongly constrained by coarse-resolution modelling capabilities both on the meteorological and the hydrological sides. In this study, the skills of the high-resolution CIMA Research Foundation operational hydro-meteorological forecasting chain are tested in the Piedmont 1994 event. The chain includes a cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a stochastic rainfall downscaling model, and a continuous distributed hydrological model. This hydro-meteorological chain is tested in a set of operational configurations, meaning that forecast products are used to initialise and force the atmospheric model at the boundaries. The set consists of four experiments with different options of the microphysical scheme, which is known to be a critical parameterisation in this kind of phenomena. Results show that all the configurations produce an adequate and timely forecast (about 2 days ahead) with realistic rainfall fields and, consequently, very good peak flow discharge curves. The added value of the high resolution of the NWP model emerges, in particular, when looking at the location of the convective part of the event, which hit the Liguria region.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document