Boreal winter Arctic Oscillation as an indicator of summer SST anomalies over the western tropical Indian Ocean

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2471-2488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao-Yi Gong ◽  
Dong Guo ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Rui Mao ◽  
...  
2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 6930-6941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Qu ◽  
Gang Huang

Abstract The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO)’s influence on the South Asia high (SAH)’s intensity experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s; after (before) the decadal shift, the influence is significant (insignificant). The present study investigates the role of tropospheric temperature in relaying the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) to the SAH and the change in the TIO’s influence. During the two epochs, the local tropospheric temperature responses to the TIO warming are distinct—more significant during the second epoch. It is inferred that this change may be responsible for the strengthening of the TIO’s influence on the SAH. Encouragingly, the ensemble simulations accurately capture the time of the decadal change, indicating that the enhanced influence is attributed to the SST forcing. There are two possible reasons for the change in the TIO–SAH relationship. The first reason is the change in the locations of the SST anomalies in the TIO. During the second epoch, positive SST anomalies lie in the Indian Ocean warm pool. Through the background vigorous convection and moist adjustment, the SST anomalies affect largely the tropospheric temperature and thus the SAH. The second reason is the decadal change in mean SST and the SST variability. During the recent decades, both the background SST and the variability of the TIO SST increase, which enhance the influence of the SST anomalies on the atmosphere. The influence of the remote oceanic forcing on the enhanced TIO–SAH relationship and its comparison with the contribution of the TIO SST are also discussed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 11973-11990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Fiehn ◽  
Birgit Quack ◽  
Irene Stemmler ◽  
Franziska Ziska ◽  
Kirstin Krüger

Abstract. Oceanic very short-lived substances (VSLSs), such as bromoform (CHBr3), contribute to stratospheric halogen loading and, thus, to ozone depletion. However, the amount, timing, and region of bromine delivery to the stratosphere through one of the main entrance gates, the Indian summer monsoon circulation, are still uncertain. In this study, we created two bromoform emission inventories with monthly resolution for the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific based on new in situ bromoform measurements and novel ocean biogeochemistry modeling. The mass transport and atmospheric mixing ratios of bromoform were modeled for the year 2014 with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. We compare results between two emission scenarios: (1) monthly averaged and (2) annually averaged emissions. Both simulations reproduce the atmospheric distribution of bromoform from ship- and aircraft-based observations in the boundary layer and upper troposphere above the Indian Ocean reasonably well. Using monthly resolved emissions, the main oceanic source regions for the stratosphere include the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in boreal summer and the tropical west Pacific Ocean in boreal winter. The main stratospheric injection in boreal summer occurs over the southern tip of India associated with the high local oceanic sources and strong convection of the summer monsoon. In boreal winter more bromoform is entrained over the west Pacific than over the Indian Ocean. The annually averaged stratospheric injection of bromoform is in the same range whether using monthly averaged or annually averaged emissions in our Lagrangian calculations. However, monthly averaged emissions result in the highest mixing ratios within the Asian monsoon anticyclone in boreal summer and above the central Indian Ocean in boreal winter, while annually averaged emissions display a maximum above the west Indian Ocean in boreal spring. In the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone bromoform atmospheric mixing ratios vary by up to 50 % between using monthly averaged and annually averaged oceanic emissions. Our results underline that the seasonal and regional stratospheric bromine injection from the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific critically depend on the seasonality and spatial distribution of the VSLS emissions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3279-3296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Liu ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractThe present study applies the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to investigate the interannual covariations of East Asian–Australian land precipitation (EAALP) during boreal winter based on observational and reanalysis datasets. The first mode of EAALP variations is characterized by opposite-sign anomalies between East Asia (EA) and Australia (AUS). The second mode features an anomaly pattern over EA similar to the first mode, but with a southwest–northeast dipole structure over AUS. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be a primary factor in modulating the interannual variations of land precipitation over EA and western AUS. By comparison, the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode (IOSD) plays an important role in the formation of precipitation anomalies over northeastern AUS, mainly through a zonal vertical circulation spanning from the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) to northern AUS. In addition, the ENSO-independent cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) impact the formation of the second mode. Using the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, three 40-yr numerical simulation experiments differing in specified SST forcings verify the impacts of the IOSD and WNP SST anomalies. Further composite analyses indicate that the dominant patterns of EAALP variability are largely determined by the out-of-phase and in-phase combinations of ENSO and IOSD. These results suggest that in addition to ENSO, IOSD should be considered as another crucial factor influencing the EAALP variability during the boreal winter, which has large implications for improved prediction of EAALP land precipitation on the interannual time scale.


2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3164-3189 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Annamalai ◽  
H. Okajima ◽  
M. Watanabe

Abstract Two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), differing in numerics and physical parameterizations, are employed to test the hypothesis that El Niño–induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean impact considerably the Northern Hemisphere extratropical circulation anomalies during boreal winter [January–March +1 (JFM +1)] of El Niño years. The hypothesis grew out of recent findings that ocean dynamics influence SST variations over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO), and these in turn impact local precipitation. A set of ensemble simulations with the AGCMs was carried out to assess the combined and individual effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the extratropical circulation. To elucidate the dynamics responsible for the teleconnection, solutions were sought from a linear version of one of the AGCMs. Both AGCMs demonstrate that the observed precipitation anomalies over the SWIO are determined by local SST anomalies. Analysis of the circulation response shows that over the Pacific–North American (PNA) region, the 500-hPa height anomalies, forced by Indian Ocean SST anomalies, oppose and destructively interfere with those forced by tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The model results validated with reanalysis data show that compared to the runs where only the tropical Pacific SST anomalies are specified, the root-mean-square error of the height anomalies over the PNA region is significantly reduced in runs in which the SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean are prescribed in addition to those in the tropical Pacific. Among the ensemble members, both precipitation anomalies over the SWIO and the 500-hPa height over the PNA region show high potential predictability. The solutions from the linear model indicate that the Rossby wave packets involved in setting up the teleconnection between the SWIO and the PNA region have a propagation path that is quite different from the classical El Niño–PNA linkage. The results of idealized experiments indicate that the Northern Hemisphere extratropical response to Indian Ocean SST anomalies is significant and the effect of this response needs to be considered in understanding the PNA pattern during El Niño years. The results presented herein suggest that the tropical Indian Ocean plays an active role in climate variability and that accurate observation of SST there is of urgent need.


2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 3566-3582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyue Chen ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Bhaskar Jha

Abstract This study analyzes factors affecting the predictability of seasonal-mean precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis focuses on the contributions from the local sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the Indian Ocean, the remote SST forcing related to ENSO in the tropical eastern Pacific, and the role of local air–sea coupling. To understand the impacts of the individual factors, the prediction skill over the tropical Indian Ocean for four model simulations, but with different treatments for the ocean, are compared. The seasonality in precipitation skill, the local precipitation–SST relationship, and prediction skill related to Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) are examined. It is found that the importance of the accuracy of local SST and the presence of local air–sea coupling in the Indian Ocean has a strong seasonal dependence. Accurate local SSTs are important during the boreal fall season, whereas the local air–sea coupling is important during the boreal spring. The precipitation skill over the Indian Ocean during boreal winter is primarily from ENSO. However, ENSO impacts are better realized with the inclusion of an interactive ocean. For all four seasons, the simulation without the interannual variations of local SST in the Indian Ocean shows the least precipitation skill and a much weaker seasonality. It is also found that, for the simulation where the global SSTs are relaxed to the observations and hence maintain some level of active air–sea coupling, the observed seasonal cycle of precipitation–SST relationship is reproduced reasonably well. In addition, the analysis also shows that simulations with accurate SST forcing display high precipitation skill during strong IODM events, indicating that IODM SST acts as a forcing for the atmospheric variability.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaqi Wang ◽  
Juan Feng ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Ran An ◽  
Lanning Wang

<p>The variability of boreal spring Hadley circulation (HC) over the Asian monsoon domain over the last four decades is explored. The climatological distribution of the regional HC is symmetric of the equator, with the ascending branch around the equator and sinking branch around the subtropics in each hemisphere. The first dominant mode (EOF1) of the regional HC is equatorial asymmetric, with the main body in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and the ascending branch to the north of the equator. This mode is mainly characterized by interannual variation and is related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Significant negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) along with the development of La Niña events; however, the magnitude of SST anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean is greater than that in the northern counterpart, contributing to EOF1 formation. The spatial distribution of the second dominant mode (EOF2) is with the main body lying in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the ascending branch located to the south of the equator. The temporal variation of this mode is connected to the warming of the TIO. The warming rate of the southern TIO SST is faster than that in the northern counterpart, resulting in the southward migration of the rising branch. The above result indicates the critical role of the meridional distribution of SST on the variability of the regional HC.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Adnan Abid ◽  
Fred Kucharski ◽  
Franco Molteni ◽  
In-Sik Kang ◽  
Adrian Tompkins ◽  
...  

<p>El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have a weak influence on the seasonal mean Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies during the boreal winter (Dec-Feb) season. Therefore, monthly ENSO teleconnections to Euro-Atlantic region were studied during the boreal winter season for the period 1981-2015 using reanalysis and hindcast dataset. It is shown that the ENSO-forced signal to the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies does not persist throughout the boreal winter season. During earlier winter, a positive ENSO phase strongly enforces rainfall dipole anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, with increased rainfall over the western tropical Indian Ocean, and reduced in the eastern tropical Indian ocean.  This Indian Ocean rainfall dipole weakens in late winter. During early winter, the Indian Ocean rainfall dipole modifies the subtropical South Asian jet (SAJET) which forces a wavenumber-3 response projecting spatially onto the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. On contrary, during late winter, the response in the Euro-Atlantic sector is dominated by the well-known ENSO wavetrain from the tropical Pacific region, involving Pacific North American (PNA) pattern anomalies that project spatially on the negative phase of the NAO. Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) numerical experiments forced with an Indian Ocean heating dipole anomaly support the hypothesis that the Indian Ocean modulates the SAJET that enforces the Rossby wave propagation to the Euro-Atlantic region in early winter. Moreover, the ECMWF-SEAS5 hindcast dataset reproduces the observed ENSO-forced inter-basin tropical teleconnections transition from early to late winter and their response to the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies quite well. Therefore, it is important to understand the tropical inter-basin transition, which may lead to improve the sub-seasonal to seasonal variability and predictability of the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies. </p>


2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2937-2960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bohua Huang ◽  
J. Shukla

Abstract To understand the mechanisms of the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, two long-term simulations are conducted using a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM—one with active air–sea coupling over the global ocean and the other with regional coupling restricted within the Indian Ocean to the north of 30°S while the climatological monthly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed in the uncoupled oceans to drive the atmospheric circulation. The major spatial patterns of the observed upper-ocean heat content and SST anomalies can be reproduced realistically by both simulations, suggesting that they are determined by intrinsic coupled processes within the Indian Ocean. In both simulations, the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean is dominated by a tropical mode and a subtropical mode. The tropical mode is characterized by a coupled feedback among thermocline depth, zonal SST gradient, and wind anomalies over the equatorial and southern tropical Indian Ocean, which is strongest in boreal fall and winter. The tropical mode simulated by the global coupled model reproduces the main observational features, including a seasonal connection to the model El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO influence, however, is weaker than that in a set of ensemble simulations described in Part I of this study, where the observed SST anomalies for 1950–98 are prescribed outside the Indian Ocean. Combining with the results from Part I of this study, it is concluded that ENSO can modulate the temporal variability of the tropical mode through atmospheric teleconnection. Its influence depends on the ENSO strength and duration. The stronger and more persistent El Niño events in the observations extend the life span of the anomalous events in the tropical Indian Ocean significantly. In the regional coupled simulation, the tropical mode is still active, but its dominant period is shifted away from that of ENSO. In the absence of ENSO forcing, the tropical mode is mainly stimulated by an anomalous atmospheric direct thermal cell forced by the fluctuations of the northwestern Pacific monsoon. The subtropical mode is characterized by an east–west dipole pattern of the SST anomalies in the southern subtropical Indian Ocean, which is strongest in austral fall. The SST anomalies are initially forced by surface heat flux anomalies caused by the anomalous southeast trade wind in the subtropical ocean during austral summer. The trade wind anomalies are in turn associated with extratropical variations from the southern annular mode. A thermodynamic air–sea feedback strengthens these subtropical anomalies quickly in austral fall and extends their remnants into the tropical ocean in austral winter. In the simulations, this subtropical variability is independent of ENSO.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roma Varghese ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Mukunda Dev Behera

Abstract This is a maiden attempt to explore the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Indian Ocean on the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the terrestrial vegetation of India during the summer monsoon. We studied the productivity of the vegetation across India using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a proxy. Our results demonstrated a strong negative SST–SIF relationship: the productivity decreases (increases) when the SST of the tropical Indian Ocean is higher (lower) than normal. This SST–SIF coupling observed during June can be explained through the atmospheric teleconnections. Positive SST anomalies weaken the land–ocean thermal gradient during the monsoon onset period, reduce the monsoon flow, and hence decrease the moisture transport from the ocean to the Indian mainland. The resultant water stress, along with the high air temperature, leads to a reduction in the GPP. Conversely, negative SST anomalies strengthen the monsoon and increase the availability of moisture for photosynthesis. There is scope for improving regional GPP forecasting studies using the observed SST–SIF relationships.


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