Variation of High and Low Level Circulation of Meiyu in Jiangsu Province in Recent 30 Years

By using the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data from 1990 to 2019 and the daily precipitation data of CN05.1 gridded observation dataset, the high and low level circulation characteristics and their influence on the onset and precipitation of Meiyu in Jiangsu Province in recent 30 years are studied. Comparing Meiyu in the 2010s with that in the 1990s, it is found that during the 2010s Meiyu was characterized by a late arrival and less precipitation. There were obviously earlier Meiyu years in the 1990s, while no extremely early Meiyu year existed in the 2010s, which was mainly caused by the late northward jump of the upper jet and the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH hereinafter) in the 2010s. Compared with the 1990s, the 2010s witnessed an eastward position of the South Asia high and a westward position of the subtropical westerly jet during the Meiyu period, which are not conducive to precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. At the same time, the cold air flowing southward to the Yangtze-Huaihe region was hindered in the 2010s due to the change of blocking in the middle troposphere. In the 2010s, the water vapor transport and the vertical transportation weakened, resulting in the decrease of precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe region.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of known large-scale modes for predicting extreme Mei-yu precipitation over China using causality driven approach

<p>Record-breaking amount of Mei-yu rainfall around the Yangtze River has been observed in the 2020 Mei-yu season.  This shows the necessity and urgency of accurate prediction of extreme Mei-yu precipitation over China for the current and future climate.  Such information could further improve the decision and policy making in the region.  Many studies in the past have shown that large-scale modes, e.g. western north Pacific subtropical high and the south Asia high, play a role in controlling extreme Mei-yu precipitation over China. Although the spatial resolution of typical climate models might be too coarse to simulate extreme precipitation accurately, they are likely to simulate large-scale modes reasonably well.  One might be possible to construct a causally guided statistical model based on those known large-scale modes to predict extreme Mei-yu precipitation. </p><p>In this presentation, we show preliminary results of the relationship between known large-scale atmospheric and oceanic modes and extreme Mei-yu precipitation in the two regions of China, i.e. Yangtze River Valley and Southern China, using the causal network discovery approach.  The relationships between large-scale modes and extreme Mei-yu precipitation on different time scale are explored.  Implication of relationships in constructing statistical predictive model is also discussed.</p>

Contribution of air-mass transport via the South Asia High to the deep stratosphere in summer

This study proposes a method for estimating meridional and vertical air-mass transport in the stratosphere based on the mass conservation equation. The method does not require calculation of the velocity and flux, and avoids the uncertainty in vertical velocity estimates. Using satellite observations of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) concentrations in summer (June–September), the relative contributions of air mass originating from the troposphere and transporting into the deep stratosphere via the tropical tropopause and South Asia High (SAH) were estimated as 7.72 % and 14.55 %, while those of HCN were 7.17 % and 15.72 %, respectively. These results indicate that the air-mass contributions of the SAH are greater than those of the tropical troposphere, and that the SAH is the most important air-mass transport pathway from the troposphere to the deep stratosphere in summer. This suggests that the impact of pollutants from Asia on the stratosphere is greater than that reported by previous studies.

Combined Effects of Synoptic-Scale Teleconnection Patterns on Summer Precipitation in Southern China

<p>Using ERA-Interim daily reanalysis and precipitation data, the combined effects of East Asia-Pacific (EAP) and Silk Road (SR) teleconnection patterns on summer precipitation in southern China were investigated on synoptic to sub-monthly timescales. Combined EAP and SR patterns lead to more persistent and extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and exhibit an obvious zonal advance between the South Asia High (SAH) and Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) prior to its onset. During typical combined events, an overlap between the SAH and WPSH remains in a favorable position for Persistent Extreme Precipitation (PEP). Furthermore, SR-induced acceleration of the westerly jet stream and extra positive vorticity advection provide persistent upper-level divergence for YRV precipitation. An anomalous EAP-related cyclone/anticyclone pair over East Asia induces enhanced low-level southwesterlies to the northern anticyclone flank and northerlies from the mid-latitudes, advecting anomalously abundant moisture toward the YRV, resulting in clear moisture convergence. Moreover, the strong ascent of warmer/moister air along a quasi-stationary front may be crucial for PEP. During decay, the SAH and WPSH diverge from each other and retreat to their normal positions, and the strong ascent of warmer/moister air rapidly weakens to dissipation, terminating PEP in the YRV.</p>