A weighted ensemble of regional climate projections for exploring the spatiotemporal evolution of multidimensional drought risks in a changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Zhang ◽  
S. Wang ◽  
J. Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Spatiotemporal Evolution ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

Regional Climate Scenarios for use in Nordic Water Resources Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rummukainen ◽  
J. Räisänen ◽  
D. Bjørge ◽  
J.H. Christensen ◽  
O.B. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Frost ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

Future circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
Dominic Matte ◽  
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Summer Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate Projections ◽  
Circulation Changes

<p><span lang="EN-US">The occurrence of extreme weather events and climate extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean region are believed to be associated with changes and variability in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. CMIP5 models exhibits a substantial decrease in mid-latitude mean storm track activity for summer under climate change for a variety of scenarios. In this work, we aim to investigate future change in summer circulation and its implication for summer temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe particularly focusing on the Southeastern Mediterranean. EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid-mesh are used to analyze future climate projections addressing climate warming targets of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for the variables in concern in order to provide robust signals not to be dependent on climate sensitivity. Our focus in this study is on monthly mean geopotential height, winds at mid- and lower-troposphere as indicators of the simulated circulation changes.</span></p>

scholarly journals Evapo-Transpiration calculated from the new regional climate projections data set DRIAS-2020 over France

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sébastien Bernus ◽  
Lola Corre ◽  
Agathe Drouin ◽  
Genaro Saavedra Soriano ◽  
Pascal Simon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Visible Radiation ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Thermal Amplitude ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

<p> <strong>Evapo-Transpiration calculated from the new regional climate projections data set DRIAS-2020 over France</strong></p><p>Changes in climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity or solar radiation strongly affect the agricultural sector. Relevant indicators are strongly needed to quantify the expected impacts and implement adaptation measures. Information on the future trend of Evapo-Transpiration (ET) is one of the key issues in order to take up the water management challenge.</p><p><span>In 2020, a new set of climate indicators based on regional climate projections corrected over France was produced and published on the French national climate service DRIAS (</span><span>www.drias-climat.fr</span><span>) and the associated report was published in January 2021. The latter portal provides climate information in a variety of graphical or numerical forms. The climate projections are based on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble and have been corrected using the ADAMONT method according to the SAFRAN reference data set.</span></p><p>ET is calculated from this new data set with the aim of making it freely available on the DRIAS portal. Various calculation methods are used and compared. First, ET is calculated upstream and downstream of the ADAMONT method. Second, different calculation procedures are tested for the FAO recommended formula. One uses the average specific humidity instead of minimum and maximum of daily relative humidity which are not available in all selected models. ET is also calculated using the Hargreaves proxy for the visible radiation based on the square root of the maximum daily thermal amplitude multiplied by a coefficient. Three different values were tested for this coefficient : 0.16, 0.175 and 0.19.</p><p>These various ET are then analyzed with a view to quantify the influence of the calculation method on the resulting estimated trends.</p><p><span><strong>Authors : </strong></span><span>BERNUS S.</span><sup><span>1</span></sup><span>, CORRE L.</span><sup><span>2</span></sup><span>, DROUIN A.</span><sup><span>2</span></sup><span>, SAAVEDRA</span><span> SORIANO G.</span><sup><span>3</span></sup><span>, SIMON P.</span><sup><span>2</span></sup><span>, PRATS S.</span><sup><span>4</span></sup><span>, </span></p><p> </p><p><sup><em>1 </em></sup><em>Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France, [email protected]</em></p><p><sup><span><em>2</em></span></sup><span><em>Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France, [email protected]</em></span></p><p><sup><em>3</em></sup><em>École des Mines, Antibes, France, [email protected]</em></p><p><sup><em>4</em></sup><em>Météo-France, Direction des Services Météorologiques, Toulouse, Franc</em><em>e, [email protected]</em></p><p> </p><p><strong>References</strong> :</p><p>FAO (1998). Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Rome, Italy</p>

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the water regime of the Inn River basin – extracting adaptation-relevant information from climate model ensembles and impact modelling

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Korck ◽  
J. Danneberg ◽  
W. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential hydrological impacts of climate change and cross boundary water management tasks in the Alpine Space. Regional analyses in this catchment were performed within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp. Objective of the study was to gain scientifically based knowledge about impacts of climate change on the water balance and runoff regime for the Inn River basin, this being fundamental for the derivation of adaptation measures. An ensemble of regional climate projections is formed by combinations of global and regional climate models on the basis of both statistical and bias-corrected dynamical downscaling procedures. Several available reference climate datasets for the study region are taken into account. As impact model, the process-oriented hydrological model WaSiM-ETH is set up. As expected, regional climate projections indicate temperature increases for the future in the study area. Projections of precipitation change are less homogenous, especially regarding winter months, though most indicate a decrease in the summer. Hydrological simulation results point towards climate induced changes in the water regime of the study region. The analysis of hydrological projections at both ends of the ensemble bandwidth is a source of adaptation relevant information regarding low-flow and high-flow conditions. According to a "drought-prone scenario", mean monthly low flow could decrease up to −40% in the time frame of 2071–2100. A "high-flow-increase-scenario" points towards an increase in mean monthly high flow in the order of +50% in the winter, whilst showing a decrease in autumn.

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