scholarly journals Mortality following elective and emergency colectomy in patients with cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study from England

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred Adiamah ◽  
Colin J. Crooks ◽  
John S. Hammond ◽  
Peter Jepsen ◽  
Joe West ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Decompensated Cirrhosis ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Compensated Cirrhosis ◽  
Emergency Colectomy ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
Elective Colectomy

Abstract Background Patients with cirrhosis undergoing colectomy have a higher risk of postoperative mortality, but contemporary estimates are lacking and data on associated risk and longer term outcomes are limited. This study aimed to quantify the risk of mortality following colectomy by urgency of surgery and stage of cirrhosis. Data sources. Linked primary and secondary-care electronic healthcare data from England were used to identify all patients undergoing colectomy from January 2001 to December 2017. These patients were classified by the absence or presence of cirrhosis and severity. Case fatality rates at 90 days and 1 year were calculated, and cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio of postoperative mortality controlling for age, gender and co-morbidity. Results Of the total, 36,380 patients undergoing colectomy, 248 (0.7%) had liver cirrhosis, and 70% of those had compensated cirrhosis. Following elective colectomy, 90-day case fatality was 4% in those without cirrhosis, 7% in compensated cirrhosis and 10% in decompensated cirrhosis. Following emergency colectomy, 90-day case fatality was higher; it was 16% in those without cirrhosis, 35% in compensated cirrhosis and 41% in decompensated cirrhosis. This corresponded to an adjusted 2.57 fold (95% CI 1.75–3.76) and 3.43 fold (95% CI 2.02–5.83) increased mortality risk in those with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, respectively. This higher case fatality in patients with cirrhosis persisted at 1 year. Conclusion Patients with cirrhosis undergoing emergency colectomy have a higher mortality risk than those undergoing elective colectomy both at 90 days and 1 year. The greatest mortality risk at 90 days was in those with decompensation undergoing emergency surgery.

scholarly journals O2 Mortality following elective and emergency colorectal surgery in patients with cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Adiamah ◽  
C J Crooks ◽  
J S Hammond ◽  
P Jepsen ◽  
J West ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cirrhosis ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Decompensated Cirrhosis ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Emergency Colectomy

Abstract Introduction This population based cohort study, aimed to quantify the risk of mortality following colectomy in patients with cirrhosis by urgency of surgery and stage of cirrhosis. Method Linked primary and secondary-care electronic healthcare data from England was used to identify all patients undergoing colectomy from January 2001 to December 2017. Patients were classified into three cohorts, non-cirrhotics, compensated cirrhotics and decompensated cirrhosis and followed up for 90-days from the date of surgery. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of postoperative mortality. Result A total of 36380 eligible patients were included. Of these, 248(0.7%) had liver cirrhosis and 70% had compensated disease. The proportion undergoing a colectomy who had a diagnosis of cirrhosis increased from 0.40% in 2001 to 1.07% in 2017 (χ2(16, N = 36380)=50.53, P < 0.0001). Following elective colectomy, 90-day case fatality was 4% in non-cirrhotics , 7% in compensated cirrhotics and 10% in decompensated cirrhotics. Following emergency colectomy 90-day case fatality was higher, it was 16% in non-cirrhotics, 35% in compensated cirrhotics and 41% in decompensated cirrhotics. This corresponded to an adjusted 2-fold (HR 2.57(95% CI 1.75–3.76)) and 3-fold (3.43(95% CI 2.02–5.83)) increased mortality rate in compensated and decompensated cirrhotics respectively compared to non-cirrhotics following emergency colectomy. Conclusion Over the study period, the proportion of patients undergoing colectomy who had liver cirrhosis increased to 1 in every 100 colectomies. The 90-day case fatality rates were high in all patients with cirrhosis in both emergency and elective settings but the greatest mortality risk was seen in those with decompensation following emergency surgery. Take-home Message 1 in 100 colectomy procedures are in patients with cirrhosis. These cirrhotic patients have a very high risk of postoperative mortality, especially, emergency colectomy in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

scholarly journals Tocilizumab for Treatment of Mechanically Ventilated Patients With COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily C Somers ◽  
Gregory A Eschenauer ◽  
Jonathan P Troost ◽  
Jonathan L Golob ◽  
Tejal N Gandhi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cox Regression ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Severity Scale ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Mechanically Ventilated ◽  
Inverse Probability ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
Secondary Analyses ◽  
Baseline Characteristics

Abstract Background Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can manifest in rapid decompensation and respiratory failure with elevated inflammatory markers, consistent with cytokine release syndrome for which IL-6 blockade is an approved treatment. Methods We assessed effectiveness and safety of IL-6 blockade with tocilizumab in a single-center cohort of patients with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation. The primary endpoint was survival probability postintubation; secondary analyses included an ordinal illness severity scale integrating superinfections. Outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab compared with tocilizumab-untreated controls were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression with propensity score inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Results 154 patients were included, of whom 78 received tocilizumab and 76 did not. Median follow-up was 47 days (range, 28–67). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, although tocilizumab-treated patients were younger (mean: 55 vs 60 years), less likely to have chronic pulmonary disease (10% vs 28%), and had lower D-dimer values at time of intubation (median: 2.4 vs 6.5 mg/dL). In IPTW-adjusted models, tocilizumab was associated with a 45% reduction in hazard of death (HR, .55; 95% CI, .33–.90) and improved status on the ordinal outcome scale [OR per 1-level increase, .58; .36–.94). Although tocilizumab was associated with an increased proportion of patients with superinfections (54% vs 26%; P < .001), there was no difference in 28-day case fatality rate among tocilizumab-treated patients with versus without superinfection (22% vs 15%; P = .42). Staphylococcus aureus accounted for ~50% of bacterial pneumonia. Conclusions In this cohort of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients, tocilizumab was associated with lower mortality despite higher superinfection occurrence.

Temporal trends in early case-fatality rates in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

Neurology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 88 (10) ◽  
pp. 985-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Béjot ◽  
Michael Grelat ◽  
Benoit Delpont ◽  
Jérôme Durier ◽  
Olivier Rouaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intracerebral Hemorrhage ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Temporal Change ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Early Case ◽  
Population Based Registry

Objective:To assess whether temporal trends in very early (within 48 hours) case-fatality rates may differ from those occurring between 48 hours and 30 days in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).Methods:All cases of ICH that occurred in Dijon, France (151,000 inhabitants), were prospectively collected between 1985 and 2011, using a population-based registry. Time trends in 30-day case fatality were analyzed in 3 periods: 1985–1993, 1994–2002, and 2003–2011. Cox regression models were used to evaluate associations between time periods and case fatality within 48 hours and between 48 hours and 30 days, after adjustments for demographics, risk factors, severity, and ICH location.Results:A total of 531 ICH cases were recorded (mean age 72.9 ± 15.8, 52.7% women). Thirty-day case fatality gradually decreased with time from 40.9% in 1985–1993 to 33.5% 1994–2002 and to 29.6% in 2003–2011 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47–1.07, p = 0.106, for 1994–2002, and adjusted HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.32–0.73, p < 0.001, for 2003–2011). Over the whole study period, 43.6% of 1-month deaths occurred within the first 48 hours following ICH onset. There was no temporal change in case fatality occurring within the first 48 hours but a decrease in deaths occurring between 48 hours and 30 days was observed with time (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31–0.90, p = 0.02, for 1994–2002, and HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.32–0.55, p < 0.01, for 2003–2011, compared with 1985–1993).Conclusion:Although 30-day case fatality significantly decreased over the last 27 years, additional improvements in acute management of ICH are needed since very early case-fatality rates (within 48 hours) did not improve.

scholarly journals Influence of Pre-Existing Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia on Post-Stroke Mortality. The Dijon Stroke Registry

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 490-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathilde Graber ◽  
Lucie Garnier ◽  
Sophie Mohr ◽  
Benoit Delpont ◽  
Christelle Blanc-Labarre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Mild Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cognitive Status ◽  
Stroke Severity ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Stroke Registry ◽  
Dementia Patients

<b><i>Objective:</i></b> We assessed the association between pre-stroke cognitive status and 90-day case-fatality. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Patients with ischemic stroke (IS) or spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) were prospectively identified among residents of Dijon, France, between 2013 and 2015, using a population-based registry. Association between pre-stroke cognitive status and case-fatality at 90 days was evaluated using Cox regression. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Seven hundred sixty-two patients were identified, and information about pre-stroke cognitive status was obtained for 716 (92.6%) of them, including 603 IS (84.2%) and 113 ICH (15.8%). Before stroke, 99 (13.8%) patients had mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 98 (13.7%) had dementia. Patients with cognitive impairment were older, had a higher prevalence of several risk factors, more severe stroke, more frequent ICH, and less admission to stroke unit. Case-fatality rate at 90 days was 11.7% in patients without cognitive impairment, 32.3% in MCI patients, and 55.1% in patients with dementia. In multivariable analyses, pre-existing MCI (hazard ratio [HR] 2.22, 95% CI 1.21–4.05, <i>p</i> = 0.009) and dementia (HR 4.35, 95% CI 2.49–7.61, <i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001) were both associated with 90-day case-fatality. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Pre-stroke MCI and dementia were both associated with increased mortality. These associations were not fully explained by baseline characteristics, pre-stroke dependency, stroke severity or patient management, and underlying reasons need to be investigated.

Mortality following surgery for geriatric hip fractures: is it the timing or the co-morbidities?

2020 ◽  
pp. 112070002094594
Author(s):  
Eyal Yaacobi ◽  
Omer Marom ◽  
Nadav Gutman ◽  
Shatha Zabarqa ◽  
Yaron Brin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Primary Diagnosis ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
Duration Of Surgery

Background: Hip fractures are prevalent in the elderly population and present serious health, social and economic problems, with an impact on morbidity and mortality. Today, it is common practice to surgically repair these fractures as early as possible, preferably within 48 hours of hospital admission. However, there is conflicting evidence in the literature about the effect of the timing of surgery on postoperative mortality. Objectives: To assess the association between surgery delay and other demographic and clinical variables with an increased mortality rate after surgical treatment of hip fractures in the elderly. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on patients aged ⩾65 years with a primary diagnosis of hip fracture. All patients underwent surgery in our Medical Center from 2015 to 2017. A multivariate model of logistic regression, Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to evaluate the relationship between various variables and mortality rates at 3- and 12-month follow-ups. Results: A total of 877 patients were included, 30% were men and 70% women; the mean age was 83.3 years. Multivariate analysis showed that mortality was significantly higher among patients who underwent late surgery, after adjusting for gender, age, co-morbidity, age of surgeon, duration of surgery and duration of hospitalisation ( p = 0.030). Surgical delay was significantly associated with higher mortality rates both at 3 month ( p = 0.041) and at 12 months after surgery ( p = 0.013). The presence of ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and chronic renal failure, as well as male gender and older age, were also significantly associated with higher early and late mortality. Conclusions: In elderly patients, hip fracture surgery should be performed within 48 hours of admission. Male and older patients, as well as patients with the aforementioned co-morbidities, are at higher risk of mortality at 3 and 12 months after surgery.

scholarly journals Predicting the risk of mortality during hospitalization in sick severely malnourished children using daily evaluation of key clinical warning signs

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijun Wen ◽  
Daniella Brals ◽  
Celine Bourdon ◽  
Lauren Erdman ◽  
Moses Ngari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Response ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Inpatient Mortality ◽  
Prognostic Performance ◽  
Sick Children

Abstract Background Despite adherence to WHO guidelines, inpatient mortality among sick children admitted to hospital with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains unacceptably high. Several studies have examined risk factors present at admission for mortality. However, risks may evolve during admission with medical and nutritional treatment or deterioration. Currently, no specific guidance exists for assessing daily treatment response. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of monitoring clinical signs on a daily basis for assessing mortality risk during hospitalization in children with SAM. Methods This is a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial (NCT02246296) among 843 hospitalized children with SAM. Daily clinical signs were prospectively collected during ward rounds. Multivariable extended Cox regression using backward feature selection was performed to identify daily clinical warning signs (CWS) associated with time to death within the first 21 days of hospitalization. Predictive models were subsequently developed, and their prognostic performance evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). Results Inpatient case fatality ratio was 16.3% (n=127). The presence of the following CWS during daily assessment were found to be independent predictors of inpatient mortality: symptomatic hypoglycemia, reduced consciousness, chest indrawing, not able to complete feeds, nutritional edema, diarrhea, and fever. Daily risk scores computed using these 7 CWS together with MUAC<10.5cm at admission as additional CWS predict survival outcome of children with SAM with a C-index of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.86). Moreover, counting signs among the top 5 CWS (reduced consciousness, symptomatic hypoglycemia, chest indrawing, not able to complete foods, and MUAC<10.5cm) provided a simpler tool with similar prognostic performance (C-index of 0.79; 95% CI 0.74–0.84). Having 1 or 2 of these CWS on any day during hospitalization was associated with a 3 or 11-fold increased mortality risk compared with no signs, respectively. Conclusions This study provides evidence for structured monitoring of daily CWS as recommended clinical practice as it improves prediction of inpatient mortality among sick children with complicated SAM. We propose a simple counting-tool to guide healthcare workers to assess treatment response for these children. Trial registration NCT02246296

scholarly journals Cystatin C predicts long term mortality better than creatinine in a nationwide study of intensive care patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Helmersson-Karlqvist ◽  
Miklos Lipcsey ◽  
Johan Ärnlöv ◽  
Max Bell ◽  
Bo Ravn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Cystatin C ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Sample Tube ◽  
Long Term Mortality

AbstractDecreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is linked to poor survival. The predictive value of creatinine estimated GFR (eGFR) and cystatin C eGFR in critically ill patients may differ substantially, but has been less studied. This study compares long-term mortality risk prediction by eGFR using a creatinine equation (CKD-EPI), a cystatin C equation (CAPA) and a combined creatinine/cystatin C equation (CKD-EPI), in 22,488 patients treated in intensive care at three University Hospitals in Sweden, between 2004 and 2015. Patients were analysed for both creatinine and cystatin C on the same blood sample tube at admission, using accredited laboratory methods. During follow-up (median 5.1 years) 8401 (37%) patients died. Reduced eGFR was significantly associated with death by all eGFR-equations in Cox regression models. However, patients reclassified to a lower GFR-category by using the cystatin C-based equation, as compared to the creatinine-based equation, had significantly higher mortality risk compared to the referent patients not reclassified. The cystatin C equation increased C-statistics for death prediction (p < 0.001 vs. creatinine, p = 0.013 vs. combined equation). In conclusion, this data favours the sole cystatin C equation rather than the creatinine or combined equations when estimating GFR for risk prediction purposes in critically ill patients.

scholarly journals Role of Inflammatory and Immune-Nutritional Prognostic Markers in Patients Undergoing Surgical Resection for Biliary Tract Cancers

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3594
Author(s):  
Simone Conci ◽  
Tommaso Campagnaro ◽  
Elisa Danese ◽  
Ezio Lombardo ◽  
Giulia Isa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biliary Tract ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Prognostic Score ◽  
Prognostic Index ◽  
Glasgow Prognostic Score ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Prognostic Nutritional Index ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio

The relationship between immune-nutritional status and tumor growth; biological aggressiveness and survival, is still debated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of different inflammatory and immune-nutritional markers in patients who underwent surgery for biliary tract cancer (BTC). The prognostic role of the following inflammatory and immune-nutritional markers were investigated: Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), Prognostic Index (PI), Neutrophil to Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Platelet to Lymphocyte ratio (PLR), Lymphocyte to Monocyte ratio (LMR), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI). A total of 282 patients undergoing surgery for BTC were included. According to Cox regression and ROC curves analysis for survival, LMR had the best prognostic performances, with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.656 (p = 0.005) and AUC of 0.652. Multivariable survival analysis identified the following independent prognostic factors: type of BTC (p = 0.002), T stage (p = 0.014), N stage (p < 0.001), histological grading (p = 0.045), and LMR (p = 0.025). Conversely, PNI was related to higher risk of severe morbidity (p < 0.001) and postoperative mortality (p = 0.005). In conclusion, LMR appears an independent prognostic factor of long-term survival, whilst PNI seems associated with worse short-term outcomes.

scholarly journals Mortality in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa C. MacKinnon ◽  
Scott A. McEwen ◽  
David L. Pearl ◽  
Outi Lyytikäinen ◽  
Gunnar Jacobsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background Escherichia coli is the most common cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and mortality is an important aspect of burden of disease. Using a multinational population-based cohort of E. coli BSIs, our objectives were to evaluate 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate, and determine factors associated with each. Methods During 2014–2018, we identified 30-day deaths from all incident E. coli BSIs from surveillance nationally in Finland, and regionally in Sweden (Skaraborg) and Canada (Calgary, Sherbrooke, western interior). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate factors associated with 30-day case fatality risk. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion were year (2014–2018), region (five areas), age (< 70-years-old, ≥70-years-old), sex (female, male), third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance (susceptible, resistant), and location of onset (community-onset, hospital-onset). The European Union 28-country 2018 population was used to directly age and sex standardize mortality rates. We used a multivariable Poisson model to estimate factors associated with mortality rate, and year, region, age and sex were considered for inclusion. Results From 38.7 million person-years of surveillance, we identified 2961 30-day deaths in 30,923 incident E. coli BSIs. The overall 30-day case fatality risk was 9.6% (2961/30923). Calgary, Skaraborg, and western interior had significantly increased odds of 30-day mortality compared to Finland. Hospital-onset and 3GC-resistant E. coli BSIs had significantly increased odds of mortality compared to community-onset and 3GC-susceptible. The significant association between age and odds of mortality varied with sex, and contrasts were used to interpret this interaction relationship. The overall standardized 30-day mortality rate was 8.5 deaths/100,000 person-years. Sherbrooke had a significantly lower 30-day mortality rate compared to Finland. Patients that were either ≥70-years-old or male both experienced significantly higher mortality rates than those < 70-years-old or female. Conclusions In our study populations, region, age, and sex were significantly associated with both 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate. Additionally, 3GC resistance and location of onset were significantly associated with 30-day case fatality risk. Escherichia coli BSIs caused a considerable burden of disease from 30-day mortality. When analyzing population-based mortality data, it is important to explore mortality through two lenses, mortality rate and case fatality risk.

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