scholarly journals From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: rewinding to the past via statistical simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luguang Luo ◽  
Luigi Lombardo ◽  
Cees van Westen ◽  
Xiangjun Pei ◽  
Runqiu Huang
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Jiuzhaigou Earthquake ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Invariant

AbstractThe vast majority of statistically-based landslide susceptibility studies assumes the slope instability process to be time-invariant under the definition that “the past and present are keys to the future”. This assumption may generally be valid. However, the trigger, be it a rainfall or an earthquake event, clearly varies over time. And yet, the temporal component of the trigger is rarely included in landslide susceptibility studies and only confined to hazard assessment. In this work, we investigate a population of landslides triggered in response to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake ($$M_w = 6.5$$ M w = 6.5 ) including the associated ground motion in the analyses, these being carried out at the Slope Unit (SU) level. We do this by implementing a Bayesian version of a Generalized Additive Model and assuming that the slope instability across the SUs in the study area behaves according to a Bernoulli probability distribution. This procedure would generally produce a susceptibility map reflecting the spatial pattern of the specific trigger and therefore of limited use for land use planning. However, we implement this first analytical step to reliably estimate the ground motion effect, and its distribution, on unstable SUs. We then assume the effect of the ground motion to be time-invariant, enabling statistical simulations for any ground motion scenario that occurred in the area from 1933 to 2017. As a result, we obtain the full spectrum of potential coseismic susceptibility patterns over the last century and compress this information into a hazard model/map representative of all the possible ground motion patterns since 1933. This backward statistical simulations can also be further exploited in the opposite direction where, by accounting for scenario-based ground motion, one can also use it in a forward direction to estimate future unstable slopes.

scholarly journals From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: fast-forwarding to the future via statistical simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Lombardo ◽  
Hakan Tanyas
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ground Motion Scenarios

AbstractGround motion scenarios exists for most of the seismically active areas around the globe. They essentially correspond to shaking level maps at given earthquake return times which are used as reference for the likely areas under threat from future ground displacements. Being landslides in seismically actively regions closely controlled by the ground motion, one would expect that landslide susceptibility maps should change as the ground motion patterns change in space and time. However, so far, statistically-based landslide susceptibility assessments have primarily been used as time-invariant.In other words, the vast majority of the statistical models does not include the temporal effect of the main trigger in future landslide scenarios. In this work, we present an approach aimed at filling this gap, bridging current practices in the seismological community to those in the geomorphological and statistical ones. More specifically, we select an earthquake-induced landslide inventory corresponding to the 1994 Northridge earthquake and build a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model of the binomial family, featuring common morphometric and thematic covariates as well as the Peak Ground Acceleration generated by the Northridge earthquake. Once each model component has been estimated, we have run 1000 simulations for each of the 217 possible ground motion scenarios for the study area. From each batch of 1000 simulations, we have estimated the mean and 95% Credible Interval to represent the mean susceptibility pattern under a specific earthquake scenario, together with its uncertainty level. Because each earthquake scenario has a specific return time, our simulations allow to incorporate the temporal dimension into any susceptibility model, therefore driving the results toward the definition of landslide hazard. Ultimately, we also share our results in vector format – a .mif file that can be easily converted into a common shapefile –. There, we report the mean (and uncertainty) susceptibility of each 1000 simulation batch for each of the 217 scenarios.

scholarly journals Slope Stability Assessment and Landslide Susceptibility Map Production of Wadi Dhahr Area, Northwest of Sana’a, Yemen

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Barahim Adnan A. ◽  
Khanbari Khaled M. ◽  
Algodami Amal F. ◽  
Almadhaji Ziad A. ◽  
Adris Ahmed M.
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Stability Assessment ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Modes Of Failure

A slope stability assessment of Wadi Dhahr area, located northwest of Sana’a the capital of Yemen, was carried out in this study. The study area consists of sandstone and volcanic rocks that are deformed by number of faults, joints and basaltic dykes. All the important factors affecting slope stability in the area such as slope angle, slope height, discontinuities measurements, weathering, vegetation cover, rainfall and previous landslides were evaluated. The study was conducted based on the integration of field investigation and satellite image processing. A landslide susceptibility map was produced with the Landslide Possibility Index (LP1) System, and the correlation values were computed between the factors measured and Landslide Possibility Index values. The fractures counted by satellite image were categorised according to their length and zones based on their concentrations. It was found that plain sliding and rockfall are the main modes of failure in the area, while rolling and toppling are rare. Some remedial measures are proposed to protect the slopes where it is needed,  such as the removal of rock overhangs, unstable blocks and trees, and by supporting the toe of slopes and overhanging parts by retaining walls and erecting well sealed drainage conduits. The results will assist in slope management and land use planning in the area.

Production of Landslide Susceptibility Map using Bayesian Probability Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halil Akıncı ◽  
Ayşe Yavuz Özalp ◽  
Mehmet Özalp ◽  
Sebahat Temuçin Kılıçer ◽  
Cem Kılıçoğlu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map

Artvin is one of the provinces in Turkey where landslides occur most frequently. There have been numerous landslides characterized as natural disaster recorded across the province. The areas sensitive to landslides across the province should be identified in order to ensure people's safety, to take the necessary measures for reducing any devastating effects of landslides and to make the right decisions in respect to land use planning. In this study, the landslide susceptibility map of the Central district of Artvin was produced by using Bayesian probability model. Parameters including lithology, altitude, slope, aspect, plan and profile curvatures, soil depth, topographic wetness index, land cover, and proximity to the road and stream were used in landslide susceptibility analysis. The landslide susceptibility map produced in this study was validated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) based on area under curve (AUC) analysis. In addition, control landslide locations were used to validate the results of the landslide susceptibility map and the validation analysis resulted in 94.30% accuracy, a reliable outcome for this map that can be useful for general land use planning in Artvin.

scholarly journals Integration of spatial and temporal data for the definition of different landslide hazard scenarios in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Zêzere ◽  
E. Reis ◽  
R. Garcia ◽  
S. Oliveira ◽  
M. L. Rodrigues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Rate Curve ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Prediction Rate ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract. A general methodology for the probabilistic evaluation of landslide hazard is applied, taking in account both the landslide susceptibility and the instability triggering factors, mainly rainfall. The method is applied in the Fanhões-Trancão test site (north of Lisbon, Portugal) where 100 shallow translational slides were mapped and integrated into a GIS database. For the landslide susceptibility assessment it is assumed that future landslides can be predicted by statistical relationships between past landslides and the spatial data set of the predisposing factors (slope angle, slope aspect, transversal slope profile, lithology, superficial deposits, geomorphology, and land use). Susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Bayesian model) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. The landslide susceptibility map is prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. In order to validate the results of the susceptibility ana- lysis, the landslide data set is divided in two parts, using a temporal criterion. The first subset is used for obtaining a prediction image and the second subset is compared with the prediction results for validation. The obtained prediction-rate curve is used for the quantitative interpretation of the initial susceptibility map. Landslides in the study area are triggered by rainfall. The integration of triggering information in hazard assessment includes (i) the definition of thresholds of rainfall (quantity-duration) responsible for past landslide events; (ii) the calculation of the relevant return periods; (iii) the assumption that the same rainfall patterns (quantity/duration) which produced slope instability in the past will produce the same effects in the future (i.e. same types of landslides and same total affected area). The landslide hazard is present as the probability of each pixel to be affected by a slope movement, and results from the coupling between the susceptibility map, the prediction-rate curve, and the return periods of critical rainfall events, on a scenario basis. Using this methodology, different hazard scenarios were assessed, corresponding to different rain paths with different return periods.

scholarly journals Using GIS & Multicriteria Decision analysis in landslide susceptibility mapping - a case study in Messinia prefecture area (SW Peloponnesus, Greece)

2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Ladas ◽  
I. Fountoulis ◽  
I. Mariolakos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Multicriteria Decision

The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides at the eastern part of Messinia prefecture using GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Linear Combination method were used to create a landslide susceptibility map for the study area. The produced map provides valuable information concerning the stability conditions of the territory and may serve as the first step in a complete hazard assessment towards the mitigation of natural landslide disasters in Messinia Prefecture area. Particularly the intention is to transfer effectively information regarding slope stability to non-geologists who take decisions for future land use planning processes and major construction projects.

scholarly journals LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING BY GIS-BASED QUALITATIVE WEIGHTING PROCEDURE IN CORINTH AREA

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 904 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Foumelis ◽  
E. Lekkas ◽  
I. Parcharidis
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Degree Of Stability ◽  
Data Layers

Landslide susceptibility mapping refers to a division of the land into zones of varying degree of stability based on an estimated significance of causative factors in inducing the instability. Maps of landslide susceptibility (relative hazard) are usually prepared on regional scales from 1:25.000 - 1:50.000. An advantage of regional studies is that they allow rapid assessment and hence larger areas can be covered in short durations. Factors (data layers) used for the preparation of the landslide susceptibility map were obtained from different sources such as topographic maps, geological maps and satellite images. All the above data layers were converted to raster format in the GIS, each representing an independent variable of a constructed spatial database. Computerization of the database would be necessary to make such analysis possible within an acceptable time frame. According to their relative importance to slope instability in the study area, the various classes of different data layers were assigned weights between 0,0 and 1,0 (collectively adding to 1,0). The overall susceptibility was calculated as an index named SPI (Susceptibility Potential Index), expressing the combination of the different weighted layers into a single map using a certain combination rule. Reclassification of susceptibility scores, based on natural breaks in the cumulative frequency histogram of SPI values, were used to delineate various susceptibility zones namely, very high, high, moderate, low and very low. Verification of results by overlaying susceptibility map and landslide inventory data and adjustment of zone's boundaries was the last stage of the study, allowing the reconsideration in some cases of the weights given

scholarly journals Evaluation of landslide susceptibility of Sete Cidades Volcano (S. Miguel Island, Azores)

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gomes ◽  
J. L. Gaspar ◽  
C. Goulart ◽  
G. Queiroz
Keyword(s):  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Central Volcano ◽  
Pyroclastic Deposits ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Summit Caldera ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Landslide Distribution

Abstract. Sete Cidades is an active central volcano with a summit caldera located in the westernmost part of S. Miguel Island (Azores). Since the settlement of the Island, in the 15th century, many landslide events occurred in this volcano, causing extensive damages in buildings and infrastructures. The study of historical records and the observation of new occurrences showed that landslides in the region have been triggered by heavy rainfall periods, earthquakes and erosion. In order to assess landslide susceptibility at Sete Cidades Volcano, landslide scars and associated deposits were mapped through aerial photographs and field surveys. The obtained data were inserted in a GIS to produce a landslide distribution map. It was concluded that the high density landslide areas are related with (1) major scarp faults, (2) the margin of fluvial channels, (3) the sea cliffs and (4) volcanic landforms, namely the caldera wall. About 73% of the mapped events took place in areas where pyroclastic deposits are the dominant lithology and more than 77% occurred where slopes are equal or higher than 20°. These two parameters were integrated and used to generate a preliminary susceptibility map. The incorporation of vulnerability data into the GIS allowed concluding that 30% of dwellings and most of the roads on Sete Cidades Volcano are located in areas where landslide susceptibility is high to very high. Such conclusion should be taken into account for emergency and land use planning.

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility in the Belt and Road Countries: continental step of a multi-scale approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Titti ◽  
Lisa Borgatti ◽  
Qiang Zou ◽  
Peng Cui ◽  
Alessandro Pasuto
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

AbstractThe Belt and Road Initiative is a collaboration project launched by the Chinese Government to connect more than 65 countries all over the word by developing infrastructures, facilities, and support collaborations among involved Countries. The Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction is a sub-project of the Belt and Road Initiative focused on mitigation and prevention of natural risks in the involved countries. In this context, this work presents a method to approach landslide susceptibility zoning on a continental scale that takes into account the limitations due to the completeness of landslide inventories and the scale and data quality of causal factors. A first attempt to produce a pixel-based statistical susceptibility map is described. All the data and software used in this work are open and open source. The landslide susceptibility zoning has been carried out in south-Asia using the NASA-COOLR landslide dataset through the Weight of Evidence method and it has been evaluated and validated by means of the ROC analysis. The results reveal a good prediction capacity and highlights that slope, relative relief and annual precipitation are the causative factors that play a major role in predisposing slope instability in the study area. Based on them, the method will be applied to the rest of the Belt and Road Countries.

scholarly journals Application Of Logistic Regression Method To Produce Landslide Susceptibility Map: A Case Study Of Tetouan Mazari, Morocco

2018 ◽  
Vol 149 ◽  
pp. 02082
Author(s):  
L. Ait Brahim ◽  
M. Elmoulat
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Logistic Regression Method ◽  
Validation Set

The main purpose of this study is to use logistic regression (RL) model to map landslide susceptibility in and around the area of Tetouan Mazari in the Northern Morocco. Parameters, such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, faults, drainage lines, and hillshade, were considered. Landslide susceptibility map was produced using RL method and then compared and validated. Before the modeling and validation, the observed landslides were separated into two groups. The first group was for training, and the other group was for validation steps. The accuracy of the model was measured by fitting them to a validation set of observed landslides. For validation process, the half landslides remaining was used. The final map was classified into five classes: Very High (32%), High (40%), Medium (7%), Low (7%) and Nil (15%). According to these values logistic regression was determined to be one of the most accurate method to generate landslide susceptibility map. Last but not least, logistic regression model can be used to manage and mitigate hazards related to landslides and to aid in land-use planning for the city of Tetouan‥

scholarly journals Oscillation of water table due to rainfall: an experience of modeling in GIS

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Federici ◽  
Rossella Bovolenta ◽  
Dario Balestrero ◽  
Roberto V Passalacqua
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Table ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Gis Environment ◽  
Geotechnical Model

A physically-based Integrated Hydrological-Geotechnical model (IHG) able to assess the rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility was developed, refined and applied in GIS environment along the past years (Passalacqua 2002; Federici et al. 2014; Bovolenta et al. 2016), showing its reliability. It is a useful instrument to landslide susceptibility evaluations and land-use planning over wide areas. The present paper focuses on the modeling of water table oscillation due to rainfall, comparing different hydrological models.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document