scholarly journals Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif rice crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers

Author(s):  
Hemadri Bhusan Amat ◽  
Maheswar Pradhan ◽  
C. T. Tejavath ◽  
Avijit Dey ◽  
Suryachandra A. Rao ◽  
...  
2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer R. Genetti ◽  
◽  
Leonard Sklar ◽  
Shirin Leclere ◽  
Claire E. Lukens

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0254723
Author(s):  
Isaac W. Park ◽  
Michael L. Mann ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Alan L. Flint ◽  
Max Moritz

In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time. However, it is well documented that the precise relationships of local vegetation, climate, and ignitions, and how they influence fire dynamics, may vary over space and among local climate, vegetation, and land use regimes. This raises questions not only as to the nature of the potentially nonlinear relationships between local conditions and the fire, but also the possibility that the scale at which such models are developed may be critical to their predictive power and to the apparent relationship of local conditions to wildfire. In this study we demonstrate that both local climate–through limitations posed by fuel dryness (CWD) and availability (AET)–and human activity–through housing density, roads, electrical infrastructure, and agriculture, play important roles in determining the annual probabilities of fire throughout California. We also document the importance of previous burn events as potential barriers to fire in some environments, until enough time has passed for vegetation to regenerate sufficiently to sustain subsequent wildfires. We also demonstrate that long-term and short-term climate variations exhibit different effects on annual fire probability, with short-term climate variations primarily impacting fire probability during periods of extreme climate anomaly. Further, we show that, when using nonlinear modeling techniques, broad-scale fire probability models can outperform localized models at predicting annual fire probability. Finally, this study represents a powerful tool for mapping local fire probability across the state of California under a variety of historical climate regimes, which is essential to avoided emissions modeling, carbon accounting, and hazard severity mapping for the application of fire-resistant building codes across the state of California.


2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Osborn ◽  
Philip D. Jones

1993 ◽  
Vol 39 (132) ◽  
pp. 323-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. McClung ◽  
Richard L. Armstrong

AbstractThe relationship of glacier response due to mass-balance changes is of fundamental importance when climate variations are to be understood. In this paper, two aspects of the problem are analyzed from field data: (1) advance/retreat of the glacier terminus due to changes in mass balance, and (2) cross-correlation of mass-balance data from two glaciers in the same climate zone. The results show: (1) the terminus can respond quickly in accordance with expected minimum time-scale, and (2) two glaciers in the same general climate zone may have very different yearly mass balance and advance/retreat behaviour. This latter result indicates the importance of local climate variations.


Author(s):  
Mikhail A. Popov ◽  
Sergey A. Stankevich ◽  
Yuri V. Kostyuchenko ◽  
Anna A. Kozlova

Paper aimed to the description of the methods of analysis and measurements of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG), especially, methane concentration using satellite tools for climate change model improvement. The experimental accuracy estimation of narrow-band spectral indices restoration by the wide-band multispectral image is performed. Three methods for narrow-band spectral indices restoration are analyzed. The method on the basis of spectra translation is recommended for practical application.


1993 ◽  
Vol 39 (132) ◽  
pp. 323-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. McClung ◽  
Richard L. Armstrong

AbstractThe relationship of glacier response due to mass-balance changes is of fundamental importance when climate variations are to be understood. In this paper, two aspects of the problem are analyzed from field data: (1) advance/retreat of the glacier terminus due to changes in mass balance, and (2) cross-correlation of mass-balance data from two glaciers in the same climate zone. The results show: (1) the terminus can respond quickly in accordance with expected minimum time-scale, and (2) two glaciers in the same general climate zone may have very different yearly mass balance and advance/retreat behaviour. This latter result indicates the importance of local climate variations.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 1143-1167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zengyun Hu ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Qi Hu ◽  
Hanqin Tian

Abstract The arid and semiarid region in central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to climate variations. However, the sparse and highly unevenly distributed meteorological stations in the region provide limited data for understanding of the region’s climate variations. In this study, the near-surface air temperature change in central Asia from 1979 to 2011 was examined using observations from 81 meteorological stations, three local observation validated reanalysis datasets of relatively high spatial resolutions, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Major results suggested that the three reanalysis datasets match well with most of the local climate records, especially in the low-lying plain areas. The consensus of the multiple datasets showed significant regional surface air temperature increases of 0.36°–0.42°C decade−1 in the past 33 years. No significant contributions from declining irrigation and urbanization to temperature change were found. The rate is larger in recent years than in the early years in the study period. Additionally, unlike in many regions in the world, the temperature in winter showed no increase in central Asia in the last three decades, a noticeable departure from the global trend in the twentieth century. The largest increase in surface temperature was occurring in the spring season. Analyses further showed a warming center in the middle of the central Asian states and weakened temperature variability along the northwest–southeast temperature gradient from the northern Kazakhstan to southern Xinjiang. The reanalysis datasets also showed significant negative correlations between temperature increase rate and elevation in this complex terrain region.


2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (173) ◽  
pp. 248-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Neumann ◽  
Edwin D. Waddington ◽  
Eric J. Steig ◽  
Pieter M. Grootes

AbstractThe late-Holocene trends in δ18O differ significantly in two ice cores (30 km apart) from the area of Taylor Dome, Antarctica. It is unlikely that the trend in the core from Taylor Mouth (the flank site) is due to a standard δ18O–surface temperature relationship. Assuming that the Taylor Dome (nearsummit) core records local climate variations common to both cores, we assess two leading possible causes for the observed differences: (1) Relative to Taylor Dome, Taylor Mouth may collect snow from more sources with distinct isotopic compositions. (2) Vapor motion during prolonged near-surface exposure may cause post-depositional isotope enrichment at Taylor Mouth, where the accumulation rate is low. Our model of firn pore-space vapor and sublimating ice grains suggests that post-depositional processes can modify δ18O values by several ‰. Isotopic samples from areas with significantly different accumulation rates near Taylor Mouth could differentiate between possibilities (1) and (2).


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