scholarly journals Reversibility of historical and future climate change with a complex earth system model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ShiLi Yang ◽  
Di Tian ◽  
JieMing Chou ◽  
Ting Wei ◽  
Xian Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Earth System

scholarly journals Reversibility of Historical and Future Climate Change with a Complex Earth System Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shili Yang ◽  
Di Tian ◽  
JieMing Chou ◽  
Ting Wei ◽  
Xian Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
System Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Initial Values ◽  
Precipitation Total

Abstract The reversibility of a wide range of components of the earth system was investigated by comparing forward and time-reversed historical and future simulations of a coupled earth system model known as the Beijing Normal University earth system model. Many characteristics of the climate system, including the surface temperature, ocean heat content (OHC), convective precipitation, total runoff, ground evaporation, soil moisture, sea ice extent and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, did not fully return to their initial values when the historical or future natural and anthropogenic forcing agents were reversed. The surface temperature and OHC declines lagged behind the decline in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Reverses in other variables occurred in direct response to the decline in GHGs. The sea level increased, even after all of the forces returned to the original values. Furthermore, most of the climate variables did not return to their original values because of thermal inertial. The end states of variables, other than those related to thermal storage, mainly depended on the original state of the natural and anthropogenic forces, and were unaffected by the future growth rate of the GHGs. The climate policy implication of this study is that climate change cannot be completely reversed even if all the external forces are returned to their initial values.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2123-2165 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-L. Dufresne ◽  
M.-A. Foujols ◽  
S. Denvil ◽  
A. Caubel ◽  
O. Marti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Change Projections

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1938) ◽  
pp. 933-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Scientific Papers

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

scholarly journals Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1519-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
T. Sueyoshi ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
T. Hajima ◽  
S. Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Precipitation Enhancement

Abstract. The importance of evaluating models through paleoclimate simulations is becoming more recognized in efforts to improve climate projection. To evaluate an integrated Earth System Model, MIROC-ESM, we performed simulations in time-slice experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 yr before present, 6 ka) and preindustrial (1850 AD, 0 ka) periods under the protocol of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3. We first give an overview of the simulated global climates by comparing with simulations using a previous version of the MIROC model (MIROC3), which is an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. We then comprehensively discuss various aspects of climate change with 6 ka forcing and how the differences in the models can affect the results. We also discuss the representation of the precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa. The precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa according to MIROC-ESM does not differ greatly from that obtained with MIROC3, which means that newly developed components such as dynamic vegetation and improvements in the atmospheric processes do not have significant impacts on the representation of the 6 ka monsoon change suggested by proxy records. Although there is no drastic difference between the African monsoon representations of the two models, there are small but significant differences in the precipitation enhancement over the Sahara in early summer, which can be related to the representation of the sea surface temperature rather than the vegetation coupling in MIROC-ESM. Because the oceanic parts of the two models are identical, the difference in the sea surface temperature change is ultimately attributed to the difference in the atmospheric and/or land modules, and possibly the difference in the representation of low-level clouds.

scholarly journals The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Yann Quilcaille ◽  
Maxime Tortora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
The Earth

Abstract. This paper provides a comprehensive description of OSCAR v2.2, a simple Earth system model. The general philosophy of development is first explained, followed by a complete description of the model's drivers and various modules. All components of the Earth system necessary to simulate future climate change are represented in the model: the oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles – including a book-keeping module to endogenously estimate land-use change emissions – so as to simulate the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide; the tropospheric chemistry and the natural wetlands, to simulate that of methane; the stratospheric chemistry, for nitrous oxide; 37 halogenated compounds; changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; the direct and indirect effects of aerosols; changes in surface albedo caused by black carbon deposition on snow and land-cover change; and the global and regional response of climate – in terms of temperature and precipitation – to all these climate forcers. Following the probabilistic framework of the model, an ensemble of simulations is made over the historical period (1750–2010). We show that the model performs well in reproducing observed past changes in the Earth system such as increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases or increased global mean surface temperature.

scholarly journals Bergen Earth system model (BCM-C): model description and regional climate-carbon cycle feedbacks assessment

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Tjiputra ◽  
K. Assmann ◽  
M. Bentsen ◽  
I. Bethke ◽  
O. H. Otterå ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Enhanced Production ◽  
Positive Climate

Abstract. We developed a complex Earth system model by coupling terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle components into the Bergen Climate Model. For this study, we have generated two model simulations (one with climate change inclusions and the other without) to study the large scale climate and carbon cycle variability as well as its feedback for the period 1850–2100. The simulations are performed based on historical and future IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Globally, a pronounced positive climate-carbon cycle feedback is simulated by the terrestrial carbon cycle model, but smaller signals are shown by the oceanic counterpart. Over land, the regional climate-carbon cycle feedback is highlighted by increased soil respiration, which exceeds the enhanced production due to the atmospheric CO2 fertilization effect, in the equatorial and northern hemisphere mid-latitude regions. For the ocean, our analysis indicates that there are substantial temporal and spatial variations in climate impact on the air-sea CO2 fluxes. This implies feedback mechanisms act inhomogeneously in different ocean regions. In the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, the simulated future cooling of SST improves the CO2 gas solubility in seawater and, hence, reduces the strength of positive climate carbon cycle feedback in this region. In most ocean regions, the changes in the Revelle factor is dominated by changes in surface pCO2, and not by the warming of SST. Therefore, the solubility-associated positive feedback is more prominent than the buffer capacity feedback. In our climate change simulation, the retreat of Southern Ocean sea ice due to melting allows an additional ~20 Pg C uptake as compared to the simulation without climate change.

scholarly journals Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9291-9312 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Keith Moore ◽  
Keith Lindsay ◽  
Scott C. Doney ◽  
Matthew C. Long ◽  
Kazuhiro Misumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Production Scale ◽  
Export Production ◽  
Community Earth System Model

The authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Late-twentieth-century seasonally varying mixed layer depths are generally within 10 m of observations, with a Southern Ocean shallow bias. Surface nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations exhibit positive biases at low latitudes and negative biases at high latitudes. The volume of the oxygen minimum zones is overestimated. The impacts of climate change on biogeochemistry have similar spatial patterns under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but perturbation magnitudes are larger under RCP8.5. Increasing stratification leads to weaker nutrient entrainment and decreased primary and export production (>30% over large areas). The global-scale decreases in primary and export production scale linearly with the increases in mean sea surface temperature. There are production increases in the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, driven by lateral iron inputs from adjacent areas. The increased HNLC export partially compensates for the reductions in non-HNLC waters (~25% offset). Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and climate by the end of this century (as in RCP4.5) will minimize the changes to nutrient cycling and primary production in the oceans. In contrast, continued increasing emission of CO2 (as in RCP8.5) will lead to reduced productivity and significant modifications to ocean circulation and biogeochemistry by the end of this century, with more drastic changes beyond the year 2100 as the climate continues to rapidly warm.

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